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The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #2426
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 06:21 PM)The Wire Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:56 AM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  @ Tail Gunner, I have not been prescribing HCQ with zinc, as current guidelines don't recommend it. However, it seems to me to be a low risk intervention so maybe I'll give it a try. I'm looking through some charts to see if anyone has gotten it, and there are a few patients I'm finding who are getting zinc but it looks like most of the ones I've found so far have gotten it after completing the course of HCQ (current standard is a 5 day course HCQ). I'll keep looking to see if I can find anyone is getting HCQ and zinc at the same time.

I see a few trials underway looking at HCQ + zinc for COVID prevention, but none for treatment of already infected patients. If I locate any patients on both I'll maybe give a quick update.

If zinc isn't being prescribed with chloroquine then I have to ask what is the purpose of administering chloroquine by itself?

Since chloroquine acts as a zinc ionophore I'm confused as to why the guidelines would have chloroquine without zinc?

It is called trial-and-error, which is part of the scientific method, which is an empirical method of acquiring knowledge. Yesterday, many forum members attacked Doubting Thomas and questioned his status as a doctor, merely because he stated that (in his own experience) hydroxychloroquine did not work. Instead of exploring alternative reasons for such a claim, they argued that such a claim (by itself) was so nefarious that it meant that he was not a doctor, but a troll, or someone purposely spreading disinformation, or even something (((far worse.))).

Rather than leaping to any conclusions either way, I simply asked him whether he was using hydroxychloroquine with zinc. I asked that question because, based on everything that I read, doctors who obtained great results with hydroxychloroquine combined it with zinc. So, it is rather obvious that Doubting Thomas had no villainous reasons for stating that hydroxychloroquine did not work -- because that is exactly the result that you would expect if you did not combine it with zinc. But it is not yet an established doctrine.

So, why are doctors not combining hydroxychloroquine with zinc? For the same reason that a band of yahoos all piled on Doubting Thomas yesterday. Ignorance. Now, ignorance is part of the scientific process -- and conscientious scientists and doctors approach the scientific process one step at a time -- and carefully build upon a foundation, rather than leaping to conclusions. So, Doubting Thomas's (temporary) ignorance is excusable as part of the scientific process.

But those forum members who piled onto Doubting Thomas yesterday have no excuse. Their confirmation bias (the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories) is so fully ingrained into their personalities that they always look for that (((scary monster))) under the bed. And in their minds, (((it))) is always there. They would rather publicly attack or ridicule someone, and make ridiculous requests of them, than seek further information and make informed inquiries.

This thread has shown both the best and the worst aspects of humanity during this very trying time. Many forum members (who should know better) have ignored The Golden Rule. I respectfully suggest that they use their CV-19 stay-at-home time to look inward and make some adjustments.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 07:55 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 07:51 PM
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Post: #2427
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
2009 Swine Flu USA: 12,469 deaths (over one year)
2020 Wuhan Flu USA: 14,695 deaths (since Feb 29)
_______________________
2009 Swine Canada: 428 deaths (1 year)
2020 Coronavirus Canada: 435 deaths (since March 8)

Mother Nature is a bitch & Father Time has an undefeated record
"If you watch cinderella backwards, its about a woman who learns her place." --Kbell

demographics is destiny
Yesterday 08:10 PM
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Post: #2428
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
There are a few reasons though why I believe it will not be quite so straight forward. The first is that the mechanism of hydroxychloroquine is not so straight forward, and there are multiple theorized mechanisms:

Quote:Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: Current evidence for their effectiveness in treating COVID-19

A number of potential mechanisms of action of CQ/HCQ against SARS-CoV-2 have been postulated. The virus is believed to enter cells by binding to a cell surface enzyme called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) (16). ACE2 expression is also believed to be upregulated by infection with SARS-CoV-2 (17). Chloroquine may reduce glycosylation of ACE2, thereby preventing COVID-19 from effectively binding to host cells (18). Furthermore, Savarino et al (19) hypothesise that CQ might block the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as interleukin-6), thereby blocking the pathway that subsequently leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Some viruses enter host cells through endocytosis; the virus is transported within the host cell in a cell-membrane derived vesicle called an endosome, within which the virus can replicate (19). When the endosome fuses with the acidic intracellular lysosome, this leads to rupture of the endosome with the release of the viral contents (19). Chloroquine has been found to accumulate in lysosomes, interfering with this process (20). Chloroquine is also believed to raise the pH level of the endosome, which may interfere with virus entry and/or exit from host cells (6).

It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

Even medications that are well studied and have strong evidence behind them, such as giving aspirin for people with heart attacks, you'll rarely see this the sort of turn around described by this doctor you cite, even though they have clear mortality benefits.

Lastly, let's assume hydroxychloroquine is actually an effective medicine. Let's say that patient's who get HCQ have a mortality of 2% compared to 4% with no treatment. This would be a tremendous success, and would mean HCQ is a highly effective medication. (I would find something like this much more likely than to have a 100% cure rate by the addition of zinc). There is a statistic called number needed to treat (NNT), which basically measures how many patients do you need to treat to save one life (or whatever your desired outcome is). Basically if all of these prior assumptions are true, you would need to treat 50 patients with HCQ to prevent one death. Such a benefit, although it would be real, is not something that you're necessarily going to notice without having a large sample size and getting a statistician to look back at it afterwards.

I'm back in the hospital on Friday. Maybe after the weekend I'll report that I started a patient on HCQ and zinc, and they still died. Does that mean that it's not effective? No, it just means there maybe isn't a 100% cure rate. But things are rarely so black and white in medicine. There are patients where you can do everything right and they'll still die anyway.

Similar to what Tail Gunner said, I'll add that the more strongly you believe something, the more skeptical you should be about the results confirming your belief. If something sounds like bullshit, it's easy to be dismissive, but when something seems to confirm what you already think it's easy to not think too critically about it. This is true for doctors, scientists, and everybody else.
Yesterday 09:06 PM
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Post: #2429
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

No matter how much zinc you take, the intracellular levels of zinc will not rise unless you use a special transporter system across the cell wall, called ionophores (channels in the cell wall that help shuttle the zinc molecules into the cell). Chloroquine is an ionophore for zinc. The higher the zinc content in the cell, the higher the level of lethality to COVID-19 -- and the level of lethality required to kill the virus can only be accomplished by using an ionophore (such Chloroquine) plus zinc supplements.

This is the third time that I have suggested watching this video. This issue is discussed in a three-minute segment from 2:00 to 5:00. I think that it is worth three minutes of your time. This M.D. has an incredible reputation and he is a licensed doctor in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and Switzerland.

http://www.sophiaeducate.com/virus-updat...linghardt/

At 6:45 to 8:45, he discusses why an antibiotic is also necessary.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 09:55 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 09:46 PM
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Post: #2430
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 09:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

No matter how much zinc you take, the intracellular levels of zinc will not rise unless you use a special transporter system across the cell wall, called ionophores (channels in the cell wall that help shuttle the zinc molecules into the cell). Chloroquine is an ionophore for zinc. The higher the zinc content in the cell, the higher the level of lethality to COVID-19 -- and the level of lethality required to kill the virus can only be accomplished by using an ionophore (such Chloroquine) plus zinc supplements.

This is the third time that I have suggested watching this video. This issue is discussed in a three-minute segment from 2:00 to 5:00. I think that it is worth three minutes of your time. This M.D. has an incredible reputation and he is a licensed doctor in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and Switzerland.

http://www.sophiaeducate.com/virus-updat...linghardt/

Oh, the guy who's been outed as a quack with disciplinary action on his record? That Dr Klinghardt?

https://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2010/...e-of-woo-2
https://quackwatch.org/cases/board/med/k...rdt/order/

Probably knows what he's talking about

Quote:But what are these "five levels" of healing of which Dr. K makes such a big deal. He explains them here. They include:

1. The lowest level is the physical body.
2. The second level is the energy body or "body electric."
3. The next higher body, the mental body or mental field.
4. The fourth level is a level beyond the mind and beyond language.
5. The fifth level is the "spirit body."


Sounds legit.
Yesterday 09:53 PM
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Post: #2431
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Yesterday 10:05 PM
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Post: #2432
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 09:53 PM)kurtybro Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

No matter how much zinc you take, the intracellular levels of zinc will not rise unless you use a special transporter system across the cell wall, called ionophores (channels in the cell wall that help shuttle the zinc molecules into the cell). Chloroquine is an ionophore for zinc. The higher the zinc content in the cell, the higher the level of lethality to COVID-19 -- and the level of lethality required to kill the virus can only be accomplished by using an ionophore (such Chloroquine) plus zinc supplements.

This is the third time that I have suggested watching this video. This issue is discussed in a three-minute segment from 2:00 to 5:00. I think that it is worth three minutes of your time. This M.D. has an incredible reputation and he is a licensed doctor in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and Switzerland.

http://www.sophiaeducate.com/virus-updat...linghardt/

Oh, the guy who's been outed as a quack with disciplinary action on his record? That Dr Klinghardt?

https://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2010/...e-of-woo-2
https://quackwatch.org/cases/board/med/k...rdt/order/

Probably knows what he's talking about

Quote:But what are these "five levels" of healing of which Dr. K makes such a big deal. He explains them here. They include:

1. The lowest level is the physical body.
2. The second level is the energy body or "body electric."
3. The next higher body, the mental body or mental field.
4. The fourth level is a level beyond the mind and beyond language.
5. The fifth level is the "spirit body."


Sounds legit.

You are an idiot. Why do I say that? Because you did not even bother to watch the video before making your mindless comments. Dr. Klinghardt, who is a brilliant doctor who has received numerous awards, was simply discussing the studies of other doctors from various countries, including France and China. It was not as if were making random weird claims unsupported by any literature.

Secondly, your own web link establishes that you are smearing someone over what another doctor did:

Quote:In 1993, the New Mexico Board of Medical Examiners placed Dietrich Klinghardt, M.D., on on probation for three years. The situation arose because in 1991, Klinghardt had sponsored a seminar in New Mexico during which Milne J. Ongley, M.D., as part of his teaching, gave injections to patients even though he lacked a New Mexico license. Ongley was subsequently convicted of practicing medicine without a license in both New Mexico and California. In the California case, he was placed on probation for three years and ordered to pay $5,000 to the California Medical Board for the cost of investigating him.

It is a well-known fact that the medical establishment and the pharmaceutical industry spent decades targeting alternative health doctors, chiropractors, acupuncturists, and others. The tide has now turned, however, and today insurance companies now cover many of these same previously "controversial" treatments. Dr. Klinghardt was at the forefront of that movement. It is a miracle that he was not targeted more often.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:10 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 10:08 PM
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Post: #2433
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
That said people should keep in mind that there’s a lot more variability in the quality between alternative medicine people.

I’ve been lucky enough to meet a few have a dramatically better scientific understanding than your typical MD but I’ve also heard of quite a few who don’t even understand basic medical terminology.
Yesterday 10:13 PM
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Post: #2434
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Because Roosh has Tweeted about India:

Daily Testing:

U.S. ~140k
Brazil ~7k
India ~10k

And I am guessing the quality of Brazil and India's tests may have more false positives meaning less people overall have already caught it. Also who knows what to believe of out places like Brazil and India and if their numbers are to look better than the reality.

Time will tell.

Right now the projected U.S. peak is April 12 for 2,200 daily deaths if we see this be the top optimism will set in quick especially in a week or so if deaths fall to the 1,500 level and below.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:26 PM by Travesty.)
Yesterday 10:18 PM
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Post: #2435
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 09:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

No matter how much zinc you take, the intracellular levels of zinc will not rise unless you use a special transporter system across the cell wall, called ionophores (channels in the cell wall that help shuttle the zinc molecules into the cell). Chloroquine is an ionophore for zinc. The higher the zinc content in the cell, the higher the level of lethality to COVID-19 -- and the level of lethality required to kill the virus can only be accomplished by using an ionophore (such Chloroquine) plus zinc supplements.

This is the third time that I have suggested watching this video. This issue is discussed in a three-minute segment from 2:00 to 5:00. I think that it is worth three minutes of your time. This M.D. has an incredible reputation and he is a licensed doctor in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and Switzerland.

http://www.sophiaeducate.com/virus-updat...linghardt/

At 6:45 to 8:45, he discusses why an antibiotic is also necessary.

Anyone know if regular quinine (precursor to chloroquine and HCQ) helps with zinc uptake? I'm wondering if drinking something as simple as tonic soda (which has quinine) and taking zinc pills will be perhaps at least 1/10th effective than taking HCQ (obviously will also avoid the risk of any side affects) - specifically as a preventative - obviously if I suspected I had the virus, I'd go to the doc to try HCQ.
Yesterday 10:26 PM
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Post: #2436
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 10:26 PM)2Infinity Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  It does appears SARS-CoV-2 has a viral RNA-dependent RNA-polmerase similar to other viruses which are inhibited by some zinc salts, so this still may be a mechanism (even the predominant one for all I know). But normal people still have zinc in their blood. Shouldn't they see some sort of benefit as well? Unless it's only the zinc deficient ones that develop severe symptoms.

No matter how much zinc you take, the intracellular levels of zinc will not rise unless you use a special transporter system across the cell wall, called ionophores (channels in the cell wall that help shuttle the zinc molecules into the cell). Chloroquine is an ionophore for zinc. The higher the zinc content in the cell, the higher the level of lethality to COVID-19 -- and the level of lethality required to kill the virus can only be accomplished by using an ionophore (such Chloroquine) plus zinc supplements.

This is the third time that I have suggested watching this video. This issue is discussed in a three-minute segment from 2:00 to 5:00. I think that it is worth three minutes of your time. This M.D. has an incredible reputation and he is a licensed doctor in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and Switzerland.

http://www.sophiaeducate.com/virus-updat...linghardt/

At 6:45 to 8:45, he discusses why an antibiotic is also necessary.

Anyone know if regular quinine (precursor to chloroquine and HCQ) helps with zinc uptake? I'm wondering if drinking something as simple as tonic soda (which has quinine) and taking zinc pills will be perhaps at least 1/10th effective than taking HCQ (obviously will also avoid the risk of any side affects) - specifically as a preventative - obviously if I suspected I had the virus, I'd go to the doc to try HCQ.

If you watch the video, you will see that transdermally applied cypress oil is also a ionophore for zinc (although its effectiveness against the COVID-19 virus is yet to be proven).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:31 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 10:31 PM
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Post: #2437
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Breaking news. Unfortunately, it is not good news. So much for herd immunity.

Quote:Experts: Virus Twice as Infectious as Previously Believed
By David A. Patten | Wednesday, 08 April 2020 04:08 PM

A new analysis by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory published Wednesday in an online Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) journal reveals the coronavirus appears to be more than twice as infectious as previously believed.

The infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease currently overwhelming the global medical system was initially assessed at 2.2, meaning that without social distancing a person with the disease would infect slightly more than two others. The seasonal flu, by comparison, has an infectious rate of about 1.28.

Why does the infectious rate matter? The more infectious a virus, the more drastic the steps a society must take, absent a vaccine, to keep the virus from spreading. A drastically higher infectious rate, as indicated in the study released Wednesday, could mean the U.S. economy would have to be shut down significantly longer to prevent a second wave of the pandemic. And some economists are already suggesting that unless a semblance of normal economic activity resumes by May, the U.S. economy will nosedive into a depression.

The more doctors and scientists have studied SARS-CoV-2, the higher the estimated rate of infection has climbed. In February, studied abstracted on the World Health Organization’s site estimated an infectious rate of 2.2. A March 30 paper by mathematicians and doctors at the Imperial College of London indicated the infectious rate -- a metric known to epidemiologists as “R-naught” or “R0” -- is actually 3.87.

Both of those numbers, however, pale in comparison to the study published Wednesday on the “Emerging Infectious Diseases" site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which concluded the actual rate of infection is about 5.7. In statistical terms, they have 95 percent statistical confidence that the disease’s actual reproduction rate falls between 3.8 on the low end, and a stunning 8.9 on the high end.

The analysis, titled “High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,” immediately caught the attention of high-profile disease experts such as Eric Feigl-Ding of Harvard Medical School. He called it “a considerably different level of infectiousness.”

“Wowzers,” he tweeted. “This much higher SARSCoV2 RO value carries a lot of implications for vaccines, treatments, and containment measures needed.”

According to Fiegl-Ding, an infectious rate of 2.2 would mean that once 55 percent of the population had achieved immunity, either by receiving a vaccine or contracting the actual disease, the disease would naturally fade out.

But when you increase the infectiousness to 5.7, fully 85 percent of the population would require immunity before officials could rest assured a second wave of the disease would not follow the relaxation of social-distancing restrictions.


According to the Los Alamos study, a structural analysis of the virus “suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus, providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness.”

The study adds that “quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20 percent of transmission is driven by unidentified infected, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed.”

A massive testing program in Iceland recently found that up to half of coronavirus victims either have no symptoms – meaning they are asymptomatic but may still transmit the disease -- or they assumed their symptoms were caused by something else.

The combination of much higher infectiousness than previously realized, combined with the asymptomatic tendency of the disease, means reopening society could be much more difficult until adequate vaccines are developed, which may not arrive until this fall.

It’s important to realize, however, that the infectiousness of the virus isn’t static. Weather and environment can push the number up or down. Also, as people become aware of a particular virus, they’re more likely to have themselves tested, treated, and quarantined before infecting others. Thus, social distancing also reduces infectiousness.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/virus/2020/04...0104dtucr5
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Yesterday 10:52 PM
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Post: #2438
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 07:44 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  
(Yesterday 07:27 PM)AlphaRN Wrote:  
(Yesterday 07:08 PM)Travesty Wrote:  Other than when the U.S. and Europe will open I predict the conversation in a few weeks will be focused on how bad Brazil especially and to a lesser extent India is hit, and how this affects the global economy.

Brazil is now 8th in growing cases, 14th overall.

India was crushed by the Spanish Flu. With their population density and sanitation, shouldn't they be a grave yard by now? This isnt meant as skepticism, India has all the making of a tinder box.

Might benefit from demographics, as unlike the Spanish flu, this isn't killing young healthy people.

[Image: india-population-pyramid-2016.gif]

Apparently due to heat/humidity the R0 in India has been around 1.5

The lockdown seemed to slow growth to 10-20%, seeing as how there's such a long incubation and lag time in death, it "shouldn't be a graveyard now"

Confirmed cases crossed 100 on 15 March
1,000 on 28 March and 5,000 on 7 April
The death toll crossed 50 on 1 April and 100 on 5 April

India took action rather early, contact trace and isolated the Sikh and Muslim outbreak clusters.
The economic impact will hit India hard though, I'm curious if it will manifest itself in western tech industry.

There are also other theories about why India hasn't been hit hard (although it remains to be seen if they're just early on the curve)

1) Apparently the BCG vaccine (tuberculosis vaccine) has some sort of possible preventative effect - India has had mandatory/free BCE vaccination for all infants while most Western countries and even some Asian ones stopped it decades ago

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/c...-1.4222110

2) It is currently the summer season in India - this also may explain why AUS may have lower cases (perhaps combined with less pop. density) - what really needs to be watched is what will happen once the hot summer subsides (around June-ish I think)

3) Also chatter about countries that get cases of malaria seem to have less cases of the virus - dengue is also common in India and is treated with HCQ

Perhaps one of the above reasons or a combination ( in addition to the younger population / lockdown) of the above may have made the virus less effective

One would think that a region like this would be facing 100K+ deaths easily, but remains to be seen.

Also, all frontline docs there are all currently taking HCQ and possibly zinc as a prophylactic, I hear.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:56 PM by 2Infinity.)
Yesterday 10:53 PM
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Post: #2439
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Norway will begin ending its lockdown later this month.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/no...id2697060/

Quote:Norway to lift COVID-19 restrictions gradually and cautiously
Press release | Date: 08/04/2020| No: 62/20

Gradual, cautious re-opening

The Government will assess its strategy and measures to suppress COVID-19 regularly.

‘We have not won the battle against the virus, even though we now appear to have achieved our goal of reducing the reproduction rate – the number of people infected by each patient – to below one. We must be prepared for a long period when strict infection control measures will continue to apply. We will re-open Norwegian society gradually and cautiously. I am confident that we can do this together,’ said Minister of Health and Care Services Bent Høie.

Infection control standards for health services where there is one-to-one contact, such as psychologists and physiotherapists, will be developed in consultation with the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. These groups will be able to run their practices more normally once they can follow statutory requirements on infection control. This will be from 20 April at the earliest.

Infection control standards will also be drawn up for other services where there is one-to-one contact, such as hairdressers and skin care professionals, in consultation between the Institute of Public Health and the relevant sectors. Businesses that comply with statutory requirements will be able to open by 27 April at the latest.

‘Clear infection control standards will allow these businesses to operate safely. This will make it possible for us to ease the restrictions gradually,’ said Mr Høie.

Possible for people to use their holiday properties again

The Government has decided that the ban on spending the night at holiday properties is to be lifted from 20 April.

‘It will no longer be an offence to stay overnight at a holiday property, but we are maintaining the national recommendation to avoid leisure travel,’ said Mr Høie.

These are the changes that are being introduced:

Day care centres and schools

20 April: Day care centres can re-open provided that they can follow infection control guidelines. They can use the period up to 27 April to prepare themselves for re-opening if necessary.

Guidelines will be drawn up and training will be provided so that owners and employees of day care centres receive clear, reliable information on what they need to do to limit the spread of infection.

27 April: Schools will open for primary years 1–4, and out-of-school care programmes will open. Upper secondary schools will open for second-and third-year pupils who are following vocational education programmes, provided that this can be done in a way that complies with infection control guidelines.

Guidelines will be drawn up and training will be provided so that local authorities and other school owners and employees receive clear, reliable information on what they need to do. In order to minimise the risk of serious illness, children who are at special risk and children who live with family members who are in risk groups will not be required to return to school. They will continue to receive remote schooling.

Holiday properties

20 April: The ban on spending the night at holiday properties will be lifted.

Health services and businesses

20 April: Many health services where there is one-to-one contact, such as psychologists and physiotherapists, have been unable to run their practices normally. From this date, they will be able to resume more normal operations, provided that they follow statutory requirements on infection control. Infection control standards for different types of services will be developed in consultation with the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

27 April: Services where there is one-to-one contact, such as hairdressers and skin care professionals, will be able to re-open provided that they comply with infection control requirements. Before they re-open, infection control standards will be drawn up in consultation between the Institute of Public Health and the relevant sectors. If they can meet the agreed requirements, such businesses may also open earlier than 27 April.

Other changes

Parents or guardians who need to cross the border between Norway and another country in order to maintain contact arrangements with children under the age of 18 will not have to follow the ordinary quarantine rules. The changes will be brought in quickly.

The ban on sports, cultural and other events that do not meet basic infection control requirements will apply until 15 June.
Sports activities may be resumed if it is possible to follow the recommendations of the Norwegian Directorate of Health on social distancing and group size.

The municipalities will be obliged to ensure that hotel or other accommodation they designate is available for people who must undergo quarantine or isolation.
The hospitals will be required to prepare for normal operations after Easter.

The Norwegian Directorate of Health and the county governors will assist the municipalities to resume normal health and care services.
The municipalities will be required to intensify efforts to safeguard vulnerable children.
The following measures and advice are unchanged:

Wash or disinfect your hands frequently and thoroughly.
Respect the rules for home quarantine or home isolation in the event of illness, close contact with people who are ill, if you return to Norway from abroad, etc.

Avoid shaking hands and hugging and kissing.
People who live together can maintain normal contact.
Follow the rules for good respiratory and cough hygiene.
Primary and lower secondary schools will remain closed for years 5–10, and these pupils will continue to receive remote schooling.
Upper secondary schools will remain closed with the exceptions introduced on 7 April and described above.

Social distancing rules: you should maintain a distance of two metres from other people, except those you normally live with. In shops and pharmacies where this can be difficult to do, people should keep at least one metre apart.

You should avoid being in a group of more than five people, unless they are people you normally live with.
You are urged to avoid public transport and unnecessary leisure travel.
The health authorities recommend working from home as far as possible. You should discuss this with your employer.

Fitness centres, swimming pools, water parks and similar establishments are still closed.

No visitors are allowed at nursing homes and other institutions for vulnerable groups.

Most bars, restaurants and other establishments serving food and drink will remain closed, except those that serve food, are able to ensure that a distance of at least two metres is maintained between customers and personnel, and can meet basic infection control requirements.

A number of public services will remain closed, including passport offices, administrative services for the public provided by the police, libraries, etc.

Stricter border controls are being maintained, and foreign nationals who do not have a residence permit in Norway will continue to be refused entry at the border.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advises against travel to all countries unless strictly necessary.
Yesterday 11:57 PM
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Staying overnight at your own, private property was an offense?
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Going strong Offline
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  I'll add that the more strongly you believe something, the more skeptical you should be about the results confirming your belief.

I'd counter that, obviously, the more strongly you believe something, the more enthusiastic you should be about results confirming your belief.

I mean, if you "strongly believe in something", why would you dismiss proofs of your belief being right? Just be glad, and reinforce your righteous belief. Doubting is weak, not woke.

Thanks nevertheless for your input on medical procedures.

Konfinement Macht Frei
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
It makes sense as most rural areas around the world have no infrastructure in place to deal with even ten cases.
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Today 12:39 AM)Going strong Wrote:  
(Yesterday 09:06 PM)Doubting Thomas Wrote:  I'll add that the more strongly you believe something, the more skeptical you should be about the results confirming your belief.

I'd counter that, obviously, the more strongly you believe something, the more enthusiastic you should be about results confirming your belief.

I mean, if you "strongly believe in something", why would you dismiss proofs of your belief being right? Just be glad, and reinforce your righteous belief. Doubting is weak, not woke.

Thanks nevertheless for your input on medical procedures.

I believe I'm going to get up and make myself a drink

Update: Svedka Vodka is the cheapest vodka that still comes in a glass bottle. An obvious sign of quality and value. Works great with diet Ocean Spray cranberry juice! Recommended for quarantines!

I'm the tower of power, too sweet to be sour. I'm funky like a monkey. Sky's the limit and space is the place!
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 11:57 PM)Garuda Wrote:  Norway will begin ending its lockdown later this month.

https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/no...id2697060/

Not just Norway... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/coronavi...sures.html

Key points:
The WHO recognized Europe as the epicenter of the global outbreak in early March, with Spain, Italy, France and Germany all now reporting more than 100,000 cases of the virus.

However, some smaller countries in the region have reported a slowing number of new infections and fatalities in recent days.

Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Norway have now all announced plans to slowly relax national lockdowns later this month.

My questions...
Are we seeing a definitive change in our situation?

Are we seeing the start of a gradual return back to normal? Obviously the US is in a different position than some of these European countries. But, and I haven't been following the latest lately but it seems the situation even in the US now is more positive than a week ago?
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
This crisis thoroughly proves how incredibly vulnerable western countries are to biological warfare due to all of the following:

A) Overblown medical systems
B) Supply chain vulnerabilities,
C) Decision-making paralysis
D) Suicidal population
E) Internal unrest


If I were a nefarious Chinese or Russian agent browsing the news comments and forums, I'd be rubbing my hands in glee right now.

God help us if a real biological weapon is ever unleashed upon us.

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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Viral is a thriller movie about a biological weapon unleashed upon the USA (or any western country). Usually in such movies, the health system holds the virus at bay while the rookie CIA agent navigates a byzantine international plot until he finds the evil international mastermind and saves the day.

However, in Viral, there is an exciting twist. After completing his mission and returning to the USA with the evil international mastermind captured, he finds it in complete ruin. Everyone is dead, the cities are deserted, it's a ghost town.

It turns out that while he was gone, almost half of the population was spreading the virus around willingly because staying home was too inconvenient, for various ideological reasons, or even simply for shits and giggles; the medical system didn't have enough surgical masks and gloves to protect healthcare workers, let alone the population; the country's leadership spent weeks fighting among each other over various petty issues instead of actually acting to contain the epidemic. This led to the biological weapon rampaging through the country, and the evil international mastermind won.

In the final scene, the rookie CIA agent executes the villain in the deserted Times Square, but it's a hollow victory.

The end.

This movie doesn't exist, and if it had been filmed 20 years ago, we would have all called it crazy. Today? Not so sure.

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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(Yesterday 10:52 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Breaking news. Unfortunately, it is not good news. So much for herd immunity.

Quote:Experts: Virus Twice as Infectious as Previously Believed
By David A. Patten | Wednesday, 08 April 2020 04:08 PM

A new analysis by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory published Wednesday in an online Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) journal reveals the coronavirus appears to be more than twice as infectious as previously believed.

The infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease currently overwhelming the global medical system was initially assessed at 2.2, meaning that without social distancing a person with the disease would infect slightly more than two others. The seasonal flu, by comparison, has an infectious rate of about 1.28.

Why does the infectious rate matter? The more infectious a virus, the more drastic the steps a society must take, absent a vaccine, to keep the virus from spreading. A drastically higher infectious rate, as indicated in the study released Wednesday, could mean the U.S. economy would have to be shut down significantly longer to prevent a second wave of the pandemic. And some economists are already suggesting that unless a semblance of normal economic activity resumes by May, the U.S. economy will nosedive into a depression.

The more doctors and scientists have studied SARS-CoV-2, the higher the estimated rate of infection has climbed. In February, studied abstracted on the World Health Organization’s site estimated an infectious rate of 2.2. A March 30 paper by mathematicians and doctors at the Imperial College of London indicated the infectious rate -- a metric known to epidemiologists as “R-naught” or “R0” -- is actually 3.87.

Both of those numbers, however, pale in comparison to the study published Wednesday on the “Emerging Infectious Diseases" site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which concluded the actual rate of infection is about 5.7. In statistical terms, they have 95 percent statistical confidence that the disease’s actual reproduction rate falls between 3.8 on the low end, and a stunning 8.9 on the high end.

The analysis, titled “High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,” immediately caught the attention of high-profile disease experts such as Eric Feigl-Ding of Harvard Medical School. He called it “a considerably different level of infectiousness.”

“Wowzers,” he tweeted. “This much higher SARSCoV2 RO value carries a lot of implications for vaccines, treatments, and containment measures needed.”

According to Fiegl-Ding, an infectious rate of 2.2 would mean that once 55 percent of the population had achieved immunity, either by receiving a vaccine or contracting the actual disease, the disease would naturally fade out.

But when you increase the infectiousness to 5.7, fully 85 percent of the population would require immunity before officials could rest assured a second wave of the disease would not follow the relaxation of social-distancing restrictions.


According to the Los Alamos study, a structural analysis of the virus “suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus, providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness.”

The study adds that “quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20 percent of transmission is driven by unidentified infected, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed.”

A massive testing program in Iceland recently found that up to half of coronavirus victims either have no symptoms – meaning they are asymptomatic but may still transmit the disease -- or they assumed their symptoms were caused by something else.

The combination of much higher infectiousness than previously realized, combined with the asymptomatic tendency of the disease, means reopening society could be much more difficult until adequate vaccines are developed, which may not arrive until this fall.

It’s important to realize, however, that the infectiousness of the virus isn’t static. Weather and environment can push the number up or down. Also, as people become aware of a particular virus, they’re more likely to have themselves tested, treated, and quarantined before infecting others. Thus, social distancing also reduces infectiousness.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/virus/2020/04...0104dtucr5

I'm too tired to go over some of those papers in detail - but suffice to say they are weak at best with wordsmithing and a lot assumptions. I'll try to get some time tomorrow to pour over them.
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-ma...r-52221688
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