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The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Post: #1326
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
In the grand scheme of things the numbers are nothing but I dont remember refrigerated trucks and ice rinks being used to handle the excess load of corpses from our regular Flu strains in dense urban areas.

Enlighten me.

I hate the authoritarian abuse of power they've instituted without any resistance but calling this a regular flu when you have corpses piling up outside of regular morgue capacity is maaaaybe a time to self-reflect.
03-26-2020 06:15 AM
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Post: #1327
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 04:27 AM)PainPositive Wrote:  Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?

This pandemic seems to be the perfect level of medium strong / medium weak.

On the one hand, there's pretty good evidence that if allowed to run unchecked, it could kill 1-4% of the population, with apocalyptic scenes in hospitals and old folks homes, and the medical industry decimated from dead doctors and nurses.

On the other hand, the nation-wide shutdown to prevent this die off could be as expensive as WWII, and the lockdown is effective enough that the reduced death rate seems trivial.

Society is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. A lot of people are screwed either way, and either way you go, a lot of people will say we should have done it the other way.

I think the best choice under the circumstances is to try to split the difference. Do enough of a shutdown to try to prevent a complete unrestricted spread of the disease unchecked, and use that time to gear up the medical system to handle a large case load. Then relax the shutdown as early as possible, and cope with an increased death rate, but hopefully far less than we would have seen in the unchecked scenario.

It's a shit sandwich no matter how you handle it. A lot of people are going to get hurt. Government officials are forced to try to spread the pain as evenly as possible, and minimize it as much as possible. There's no way they could let it run unchecked, and there will be no way they could leave the quarantines in place indefinitely. Some combination of temporary quarantines, aid packages, and efforts to mobilize resources is about the best any government can achieve in this situation, and they're not going to be able to make every decision perfectly, or implement every plan perfectly. It is what it is.

The skeptics don't have any answers that would make this all go away.

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03-26-2020 07:25 AM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #1328
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 04:56 AM)Richard Turpin Wrote:  After reading through both this thread and the Coronavirus Skeptik thread, I honestly don't know what to believe anymore.

I live in rural area of the UK and it's safe to say that without all the media hullabaloo, I and everyone else round here would be completely unaware of any virus.

I'm cautious so I prepped food-wise and treated this all very seriously since Day 1. However, I'm also extremely distrustful of government and have hardly believed a word any of them have said so far. I'll just see how this plays out and pick the bones out of it when it's all over, until then it's wiser to assume it's the real deal.

My best guess as it relates to the variations in the mortality and infectiousness rates is that there are multiple strains, some of which are less infectious and/or fatal. Some experts are claiming that the virus mutates extremely rapidly though it has become pointless to post sources for anything because everyone draws a paycheck from somewhere so invariably all experts are either discredited as a globalist shill or a Chinese shill depending on where their bread is buttered.

Here's my sincerest take-away from the whole rolling event.

If the virus is real(ly dangerous) then you need to have your shit wired tight ASAP and make your peace with God.

Alternately if the virus is fake then we are being gas-lit in preparation for something once-in-a-lifetime level extreme, so you need to have your shit wired tight ASAP and make your peace with God.

Either way. You need to have your shit wired tight ASAP and make your peace with God.

I noted to someone else today. Having watched the second plane fly into the WTC live on TV those many years ago I can say in fairness that the fallout from that event was child's play compared to the rolling fuckfest the WuFlu has brought down on us, the ramifications of which will be felt for decades from this point.

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03-26-2020 07:29 AM
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expectation Offline
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Post: #1329
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Honestly, it didn't have to be this way had this was acted a month ago. Now, it's a little too late for New York City

Is anyone in Germany that could give some insights whats going on? High # of cases but a dent in the death count.

(03-26-2020 07:25 AM)RoastBeefCurtains4Me Wrote:  
(03-26-2020 04:27 AM)PainPositive Wrote:  Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?

This pandemic seems to be the perfect level of medium strong / medium weak.

On the one hand, there's pretty good evidence that if allowed to run unchecked, it could kill 1-4% of the population, with apocalyptic scenes in hospitals and old folks homes, and the medical industry decimated from dead doctors and nurses.

On the other hand, the nation-wide shutdown to prevent this die off could be as expensive as WWII, and the lockdown is effective enough that the reduced death rate seems trivial.

Society is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. A lot of people are screwed either way, and either way you go, a lot of people will say we should have done it the other way.

I think the best choice under the circumstances is to try to split the difference. Do enough of a shutdown to try to prevent a complete unrestricted spread of the disease unchecked, and use that time to gear up the medical system to handle a large case load. Then relax the shutdown as early as possible, and cope with an increased death rate, but hopefully far less than we would have seen in the unchecked scenario.

It's a shit sandwich no matter how you handle it. A lot of people are going to get hurt. Government officials are forced to try to spread the pain as evenly as possible, and minimize it as much as possible. There's no way they could let it run unchecked, and there will be no way they could leave the quarantines in place indefinitely. Some combination of temporary quarantines, aid packages, and efforts to mobilize resources is about the best any government can achieve in this situation, and they're not going to be able to make every decision perfectly, or implement every plan perfectly. It is what it is.

The skeptics don't have any answers that would make this all go away.
03-26-2020 08:28 AM
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budoslavic Offline
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Post: #1330
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
03-26-2020 08:39 AM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #1331
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Includes scenes from Tokyo 22 March interesting No pandemic pandemonium.




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Official Whitehouse.gov President Trump's achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

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(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 09:22 AM by Deepdiver.)
03-26-2020 09:18 AM
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Post: #1332
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 08:28 AM)expectation Wrote:  Is anyone in Germany that could give some insights whats going on? High # of cases but a dent in the death count.

I'm not in Germany but it's an open secret that they're simply hiding deaths. They've publicly stated that they count deaths from coronavirus only if the deceased had no other comorbidities. If they had any, they are automatically treated as having died from that comorbidity.

Obviously, this makes sense for excluding patients who died from coronavirus while suffering from stage III brain cancer or late-stage multiple sclerosis... but it makes a lot less sense for people whose only "comorbidity" consists of slightly elevated blood pressure, an allergy to peanuts, or erectile dysfunction.

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03-26-2020 09:48 AM
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #1333
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Nothing to see in Germany, just the usual holocaust against Germans going on. Refugees let in on a full ride while the citizens are banned from leaving their house. They must pay taxes while their daughters are raped by invaders, yet also banned from even working. Germany is not going to survive three decades at this rate.

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03-26-2020 10:02 AM
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Post: #1334
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/new-jersey...irus-test/

New Jersey man, 25, in coma after misplaced positive coronavirus test

[Image: jack-allard-98.jpg?quality=90&st...amp;w=1286]

Quote:A 25-year-old New Jersey man is fighting for his life after a lab lost a test that showed he was positive for the coronavirus — delaying his treatment, reports say.

Jack Allard, a two-time All American lacrosse player, was placed in a medically induced coma at an Edison hospital after being tested for COVID-19, news station WABC reported.

His mother, Genny Allard, told Pix11 News that her son first got sick on March 13 when he started experiencing a high fever, back pain and started throwing up.

“We thought he had a kidney infection,” she told the station.

His health deteriorated and he was placed on a ventilator in the intensive care unit, where he was tested for the coronavirus, WABC reported.

But the lab lost the test, which delayed his access to special experimental treatment by at least five days, the report said.

“My son is healthy, no pre-existing conditions and he’s 25. This virus is really dangerous and now he is very, very sick,” Genny told WABC.

Jack was eventually airlifted to the University of Pennsylvania on Tuesday for a clinical trial for the Ebola drug Remdesivir.

“Remdesivir is one of the anti-virals that has been shown to limit the viral activity,” Dr. Laila Woc-Colburn, an infectious disease professor at Baylor College, told PIX11 News.

Genny said her otherwise healthy son’s ordeal has revealed that “we’re in uncharted waters in the world” with the pandemic.


"It'S jUsT tHe FlU bRo!!!11"

25 year old, peak physical athletic condition, healthier than 99.9% of the men on this forum. Now IN A COMA, because he did not receive medical treatment fast enough. He will most likely be fucked for life, with long-term disabilities ranging from lung scarring to brain damage.

My challenge to all the "skeptics" out there, go to a hospital and pick up the Wu Flu, then brag about it on this forum how you overcame it so quickly and easily. Come on tough guys, what are you waiting for?

I don't give a damn about any stats (which are easily lied about by government agencies), theories, or whatever. I look at real cases like these, and real testimonies from Doctors (like Atlanta Man) to make my decisions. Everything else is bullshit by comparison. It's how I learned game and got more women than 90% of men despite the huge lies surrounding women in my youth, and it's how I'm going to survive the worst plague since the Black Plague.

Remember, watch what people DO, not what people SAY. China using military force and exterminating Wuhan was all I ever needed to know or see. China obviously knows how bad the bioweapon they accidentally unleashed was, and it's time we started acting rationally about this. This is absolutely deserving of wartime measures, and perhaps more. We have no idea what the long-term capabilities of this weapon is. It's already mutating at breakneck speeds. It's designed to overcome both our immune systems and medical systems. This is an extremely dangerous situation, and we could be fighting it for many many years just like any other war.


P.S. Wuhan has actually had DECLINING traffic over the past few days, if you can believe it: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-ind...an-traffic

It was already close to 0, and today's morning traffic was basically zero. China killed off a city of 10million+ to save the rest of their nation, that's all anyone needs to know.

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(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 10:15 AM by Samseau.)
03-26-2020 10:07 AM
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Post: #1335
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 02:17 AM)Stats Wrote:  \That Oxford report is a HYPOTHETICAL mathematical model. Not based on any of the data from the virus. the actual data available now already disproves it entirely. the journalist that wrote the article completely takes it out of context by using wording like "MAY". as in I MAY be able to walk on water.. but in reality I can not. Conclusion BAD journalism.

Right, I'm just using it as being representative of sentiment on one extreme end of the spectrum right now. I never said it is accurate, I don't think it is. That's why I'm saying the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
03-26-2020 10:17 AM
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Post: #1336
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Saturday, March 7 I've spend all night in a important hospital accompanying a relative. I've entered the emergency room, observation room and ICU unit and it was business as usual, bedridden, dying folks, some in the hallways, no gel, no disinfection, no nurses or doctors worried or even with masks.

It was not in USA, but one week later an 'emergency state' was declared in this geography.

Yesterday a female doctor I know told me about a 'young patient' with 'cracked lungs' that she was made aware by surreptitiously entering the 'system'.

Either the virus is a lot more virulent than we're being told or the response just doesn't make any sense.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 10:36 AM by John Silva.)
03-26-2020 10:35 AM
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Dr. Howard Offline
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Post: #1337
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 10:07 AM)Samseau Wrote:  https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/new-jersey...irus-test/

New Jersey man, 25, in coma after misplaced positive coronavirus test

[Image: jack-allard-98.jpg?quality=90&st...amp;w=1286]

Quote:A 25-year-old New Jersey man is fighting for his life after a lab lost a test that showed he was positive for the coronavirus — delaying his treatment, reports say.

Jack Allard, a two-time All American lacrosse player, was placed in a medically induced coma at an Edison hospital after being tested for COVID-19, news station WABC reported.

His mother, Genny Allard, told Pix11 News that her son first got sick on March 13 when he started experiencing a high fever, back pain and started throwing up.

“We thought he had a kidney infection,” she told the station.

His health deteriorated and he was placed on a ventilator in the intensive care unit, where he was tested for the coronavirus, WABC reported.

But the lab lost the test, which delayed his access to special experimental treatment by at least five days, the report said.

“My son is healthy, no pre-existing conditions and he’s 25. This virus is really dangerous and now he is very, very sick,” Genny told WABC.

Jack was eventually airlifted to the University of Pennsylvania on Tuesday for a clinical trial for the Ebola drug Remdesivir.

“Remdesivir is one of the anti-virals that has been shown to limit the viral activity,” Dr. Laila Woc-Colburn, an infectious disease professor at Baylor College, told PIX11 News.

Genny said her otherwise healthy son’s ordeal has revealed that “we’re in uncharted waters in the world” with the pandemic.


"It'S jUsT tHe FlU bRo!!!11"

25 year old, peak physical athletic condition, healthier than 99.9% of the men on this forum. Now IN A COMA, because he did not receive medical treatment fast enough. He will most likely be fucked for life, with long-term disabilities ranging from lung scarring to brain damage.

My challenge to all the "skeptics" out there, go to a hospital and pick up the Wu Flu, then brag about it on this forum how you overcame it so quickly and easily. Come on tough guys, what are you waiting for?

I don't give a damn about any stats (which are easily lied about by government agencies), theories, or whatever. I look at real cases like these, and real testimonies from Doctors (like Atlanta Man) to make my decisions. Everything else is bullshit by comparison. It's how I learned game and got more women than 90% of men despite the huge lies surrounding women in my youth, and it's how I'm going to survive the worst plague since the Black Plague.

Remember, watch what people DO, not what people SAY. China using military force and exterminating Wuhan was all I ever needed to know or see. China obviously knows how bad the bioweapon they accidentally unleashed was, and it's time we started acting rationally about this. This is absolutely deserving of wartime measures, and perhaps more. We have no idea what the long-term capabilities of this weapon is. It's already mutating at breakneck speeds. It's designed to overcome both our immune systems and medical systems. This is an extremely dangerous situation, and we could be fighting it for many many years just like any other war.


P.S. Wuhan has actually had DECLINING traffic over the past few days, if you can believe it: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-ind...an-traffic

It was already close to 0, and today's morning traffic was basically zero. China killed off a city of 10million+ to save the rest of their nation, that's all anyone needs to know.

Sounds like one of those examples where it gets into the spinal fluid. The symptoms almost sound like meningitis.

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03-26-2020 10:38 AM
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #1338
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-20-2020 09:20 AM)EvanWilson Wrote:  N95 mask production numbers

From a mid day press conference.
President Trump and Coronavirus Task Force Brief Reporters, March 19, 2020; start time around 11:30 EDT
President Trump, joined by a notably smaller group of members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force than previous briefings, held a news conference on the response to the pandemic.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470503-1/p...start=2310

At the 41:10 mark VP Mike Pence giving numbers on the N95 masks:
1: Mentions that he was at a 3M facility the day before with that will be producing 35 million masks per month or 420 million N95 masks per year.
2: Mention that Honney well will have a facility to make 120 million N95 masks per year.
3: Talked about new legislation that was passed so these masks, which where only certified for industrial use, are now allowed and protected from liability for medical use.

As a note, other testimony in front of Congress mentioned that300 million masks were needed and initial mention of those numbers was that 30 million were in inventory, updated to 43 million a few weeks later. That was a few weeks ago so I expect the inventory will be several million higher now.

Reposting this from another thread (dunno why it was posted where it was). Pertinent information that is good to know.

N95 masks will be the equivalent of a M1 Garand in this war. You don't want to enter the frontlines without one.

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03-26-2020 10:50 AM
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Post: #1339
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 02:21 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  ^^^ How do you isolate half the population (old/ill or both?)

For example

40% of Americans are chronically ill that’s 133M people

34% of Americans are above age 50 (111M)

I think you're asking the wrong question. You don't need to isolate half the population. Half the population isn't likely to need ICU treatment.

Of the figures you posted, there is considerable overlap among the old and those with pre-existing conditions. As people age, chronic conditions are more likely to become present.

Having a pre-existing condition isn't a death sentence. In Italy, roughly half of the deaths are people with 3 pre-existing conditions. The majority are made up of people with 2 and 3 conditions. It's a sliding scale where risk is correlated with age and number of existing conditions, not an absolute risk for anyone that meets minimum criteria.

What percentage of the population is over 75 and has 2 or more pre-existing conditions? Rather than your estimate of a majority of the population, I'd wager that it's less than 10%, and likely less than 5% of the total population. Isolating 5% of the population has a much less dire impact than isolating the entire country en masse.

What's being proposed by governments around the world is isolating the entire population. Despite a small fraction of the population being the primary risk group.

If this thing is mainly killing people due to a lack of hospital ICU capacity, then the ones who are vastly over-represented in taking up ICU beds should be the first ones to self-isolate.

People 44 and under make up a majority of the population, and are 6 times under-represented in hospitalizations for Covid. Having the majority of the population isolated at home when they represent a small minority of hospital capacity, and an even smaller minority of hospital capacity makes no sense. If anyone should be isolated, it should be the populations that place the highest strain on ICU capacity.
03-26-2020 11:09 AM
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Post: #1340
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
China two months ago: how dare you close your borders to us

China now:

Reverse Uno

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03-26-2020 11:10 AM
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Post: #1341
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 11:09 AM)thoughtgypsy Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 02:21 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  ^^^ How do you isolate half the population (old/ill or both?)

For example

40% of Americans are chronically ill that’s 133M people

34% of Americans are above age 50 (111M)

I think you're asking the wrong question. You don't need to isolate half the population. Half the population isn't likely to need ICU treatment.

Of the figures you posted, there is considerable overlap among the old and those with pre-existing conditions. As people age, chronic conditions are more likely to become present.

Having a pre-existing condition isn't a death sentence. In Italy, roughly half of the deaths are people with 3 pre-existing conditions. The majority are made up of people with 2 and 3 conditions. It's a sliding scale where risk is correlated with age and number of existing conditions, not an absolute risk for anyone that meets minimum criteria.

What percentage of the population is over 75 and has 2 or more pre-existing conditions? Rather than your estimate of a majority of the population, I'd wager that it's less than 10%, and likely less than 5% of the total population. Isolating 5% of the population has a much less dire impact than isolating the entire country en masse.

What's being proposed by governments around the world is isolating the entire population. Despite a small fraction of the population being the primary risk group.

If this thing is mainly killing people due to a lack of hospital ICU capacity, then the ones who are vastly over-represented in taking up ICU beds should be the first ones to self-isolate.

People 44 and under make up a majority of the population, and are 6 times under-represented in hospitalizations for Covid. Having the majority of the population isolated at home when they represent a small minority of hospital capacity, and an even smaller minority of hospital capacity makes no sense. If anyone should be isolated, it should be the populations that place the highest strain on ICU capacity.

One problem. It's that you have no idea, and no one else does. The fact that it kills old first means nothing, this plague has also killed the young. It seems it just takes longer to kill them.

Since no one knows what this plague is capable of, caution is intelligent.

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03-26-2020 11:14 AM
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Post: #1342
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 02:29 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  I think the infectiousness and mortality rates are not at all a developing situation, but rather a well established fact because of the study that was inadvertently ran on the Diamond Princess cruise ship:

Population: 3700
Infected: 712 (19.24%)
Deaths: 10 (1.40%)


This happened in a serious country with great healthcare (Japan), in perfect conditions (everyone was tested, some people multiple times), in a closed environment (no new people boarded the ship to produce additional cases), in a normal population (skewed a bit older but not a lot older - average age of 46, similar to most western countries; also no one goes on a cruise if they're chronically ill or about to die).

This 19.24% infection rate and 1.4% death rate is literally the best-case coronavirus scenario. In imperfect conditions, where people are constantly mingling over a vast geographic area, not quarantined as soon as the epidemic begins, nor all tested and placed in isolation, both are going to be higher.

I allow for racial and regional differences (populations that are, for whatever reason, more or less susceptible to the virus), but the point is that saying "we don't yet have all the data" is nonsense.

Yes, we do have all the data, and it is a real reason for concern.

The median age on the Diamond Princess cruise ship was 63.4 by my calculation using this data. Median age in the U.S. is 38.1 according to Wikipedia. That is quite a big difference, and one of the key predictors of fatality from the disease is age.

A more controlled study of a subset of the Diamond Princess population that was released recently showed an asymptomatic/mild rate of 73% of those infected in a highly circulating environment. The subset was an even higher median age (68) than the population of the cruise ship. So if you were to adjust this and apply this rate to a general population of normal age distribution, you would get a much higher asymptomatic infection rate than the naive 50% estimate for South Korea I mentioned. Meaning that many more people are already infected in the general population than known and that IFR is much lower than CFR (~1.4% according to South Korea and Diamond Princess).
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 11:40 AM by Lampwick.)
03-26-2020 11:20 AM
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Mr Gibbs Online
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Post: #1343
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Last week it was only 400, now it's 1700 inmates released into the public.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inmates-rel...020-03-24/

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti warns of mass death, condemns 'false hope,' and tells us his city will be on lockdown for another 2 months — and to 'be prepared for longer'
https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19...ths-2020-3
03-26-2020 11:20 AM
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ball dont lie Offline
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Post: #1344
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 06:15 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  In the grand scheme of things the numbers are nothing but I dont remember refrigerated trucks and ice rinks being used to handle the excess load of corpses from our regular Flu strains in dense urban areas.

Enlighten me.

I hate the authoritarian abuse of power they've instituted without any resistance but calling this a regular flu when you have corpses piling up outside of regular morgue capacity is maaaaybe a time to self-reflect.

NYC is in total lock down. Murder, car accidents, bike accidents, food poisoning, etc, every form of death is down, way down.

A few hundred people die from this and the morgue is above capacity?

Does that make sense?
03-26-2020 11:35 AM
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rainy Offline
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Post: #1345
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 04:27 AM)PainPositive Wrote:  Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?

About the virus? Not me being right near the epicenter for North America.

Already have one employee who's incredibly sick and getting tested and had to send another home another today to get tested.

Both are incredibly tough guys from El Salvador who never miss a day of work. They know what they have is different and more severe than any cold/flu.

Know another business owner in a connected industry who shut down his entire operation and quarantined everyone for 14 days. This guy, mid 40's, great shape, lifter, told me he's as sick as he's ever been in his life and barely has the strength to go to and from the bathroom.

Of course chances are, most who get it deal with it fairly easily. But there is a segment who when they get it are getting hammered pretty badly. Every single business around here is taking severe precautions.

The real threat is what happens if you need a hospital bed and none are available. We're almost there. Even going to the hospital likely means getting infected if you already aren't.
03-26-2020 11:46 AM
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Post: #1346
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 06:15 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  In the grand scheme of things the numbers are nothing but I dont remember refrigerated trucks and ice rinks being used to handle the excess load of corpses from our regular Flu strains in dense urban areas.

Enlighten me.

I hate the authoritarian abuse of power they've instituted without any resistance but calling this a regular flu when you have corpses piling up outside of regular morgue capacity is maaaaybe a time to self-reflect.

Please share piles of corpses videos. I'm sure they must have gone viral (no pun intended) by now.
03-26-2020 11:49 AM
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rainy Offline
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Post: #1347
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
The N95 masks...anyone know how long they can be used or can they be reusable.

I was able to get a pack of 20.

I'm not as concerned about me but rather my pregnant wife. Her OBGYN strongly suggested she where a mask and gloves to her appointment tomorrow.

BTW, here in NY it's bad enough that when my wife is scheduled for a C-section in May, no siblings, family members or even me, the spouse are allowed in the hospital. I'll drop her off in the morning for the C-section and I guess, pick her up and my newborn 2-3 days later. I don't know how many of you are fathers but it's kind of crazy to be looking down the barrel of your wife delivering a baby by herself and you can't be in the hospital at all.
03-26-2020 11:52 AM
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Emancipator Offline
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Post: #1348
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 11:09 AM)thoughtgypsy Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 02:21 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  ^^^ How do you isolate half the population (old/ill or both?)

For example

40% of Americans are chronically ill that’s 133M people

34% of Americans are above age 50 (111M)

I think you're asking the wrong question. You don't need to isolate half the population. Half the population isn't likely to need ICU treatment.

Of the figures you posted, there is considerable overlap among the old and those with pre-existing conditions. As people age, chronic conditions are more likely to become present.

Having a pre-existing condition isn't a death sentence. In Italy, roughly half of the deaths are people with 3 pre-existing conditions. The majority are made up of people with 2 and 3 conditions. It's a sliding scale where risk is correlated with age and number of existing conditions, not an absolute risk for anyone that meets minimum criteria.

What percentage of the population is over 75 and has 2 or more pre-existing conditions? Rather than your estimate of a majority of the population, I'd wager that it's less than 10%, and likely less than 5% of the total population. Isolating 5% of the population has a much less dire impact than isolating the entire country en masse.

What's being proposed by governments around the world is isolating the entire population. Despite a small fraction of the population being the primary risk group.

If this thing is mainly killing people due to a lack of hospital ICU capacity, then the ones who are vastly over-represented in taking up ICU beds should be the first ones to self-isolate.

People 44 and under make up a majority of the population, and are 6 times under-represented in hospitalizations for Covid. Having the majority of the population isolated at home when they represent a small minority of hospital capacity, and an even smaller minority of hospital capacity makes no sense. If anyone should be isolated, it should be the populations that place the highest strain on ICU capacity.
You’re underestimating the millions of Americans under the age of 44 with chronic illness, eliminate those ages 0-15 too

Why relegate millions (in the US context) to 12-18 months of isolation, how do you maintain the logistics of a two tiered society. How many live in multigenerational households.

This isn’t some video game simulator, good luck trying to convince even those under 44 to accept a risk of getting infected (and disabled or dead) on a gamble of any form economic stability for 18 months.

Governments have China to compare to, there’s no country that chose the “let the virus run wild” thus any government choosing this route would be betting that the outcome would be better (Society, Economically and lives saved) than what China achieved (doubt)
This is a new virus and little of it is known

Letting the virus run its course is simply unacceptable to a majority of the population, much riskier than a month long shutdown and quite frankly impractical.

Literally an autistic strategy
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 12:01 PM by Emancipator.)
03-26-2020 11:53 AM
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RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
03-26-2020 11:54 AM
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Post: #1350
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Can we just start a Skeptics vs. Pandemics thread instead of ignoring each other because we disagree or is that not allowed?

Why don't we just hash out our best arguments for each side like men (in another thread) instead of throwing thinly veiled shade from our own little threads at each other.

There is already a gyroper vs. zionist thead so I don't see how this is any different.
03-26-2020 11:57 AM
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