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The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
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whitewashedblackguy Offline
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Post: #1301
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Really growing tired of the following:
PresCarter Wrote:"Well they were old"
"Well they were diabetic"
"Well they probably did this or that or were obese or didn't floss every day"

Get off your high horses of Darwin elitism. Even if you are perfect, we have not enough evidence that this virus gives a fuck either way.

Me feels like COVID-19 is bullshit, but fair point. Smallpox fucked Native Americans, despite their nomad lifestyle.

Quote: you feel carefree and invincible with no weight on your shoulders because you view yourself as genetically perfect, well aligned to deflect this virus, and have no strings attached to anyone unlike yourself - I truly feel sorry for you.

If this is you, get your ass into gear and do something for someone else. Someone with less of a fighting chance as you.

Be a leader. Be a man. And use the blessings you've been bestowed with to help others through the fight.

Don't worry, I'm blessing others with delivery's. No one needs to walk outside with me on the job.

After talking to a young lady for a while, she told me “Even though your skin is black, I can tell your heart is white.”
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 11:53 PM by whitewashedblackguy.)
03-25-2020 11:44 PM
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WalterBlack Offline
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Post: #1302
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Oleh from India Severely Beaten By Men Shouting ‘Chinese’ and ‘Corona'

[Image: Am-Shalem-Singson-at-the-hospital.jpg]

Quote:Am-Shalem Singson, 28, member of the Bnei Menashe Jewish community who made Aliyah from Manipur, India, in 2017, was attacked last Saturday in Tiberias by two men, Shavei Israel said in a press release. The attackers first yelled “Chinese” and then “Corona! Corona!” while beating and kicking Singson hard in the chest. Singson was hospitalized in Baruch Padeh Medical Center, Poriya, in Tiberias, with severe injuries to his chest and lungs. He is currently in stable condition.

Singson made Aliyah with his mother, grandmother and brother. He lives in Tiberias with his family and attends a Hesder Yeshiva in Ma’alot.


“I told both of the attackers that I was not even Chinese, but rather a Jew from the Bnei Menashe community, not that there is any justification for attacking a Chinese guy or anybody else,” Singson said from his hospital bed. “But they were totally crazed and kicked me hard while yelling, ‘Corona! Corona!’”


“Shavei Israel is stunned by the vicious and racist attack on Am-Shalem Singson,” said the organization’s chairman Michael Freund. “Bnei Menashe are our brothers and sisters and anyone who raises a hand against them must be brought to justice. I demand that action be taken, and I call on the police to investigate this incident immediately. The coronavirus does not distinguish between different types of Israelis based on their skin color or the shape of their eyes – and neither should anyone else.”

About 6,500 members of the Bnei Menashe community in northeast India want to immigrate to Israel. 700 of them have already received an Aliyah permit and are awaiting approval from the Israeli government to come home. More than 4,000 people from Bnei Menashe have already immigrated to Israel and have been successfully absorbed.
03-25-2020 11:47 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #1303
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 11:47 PM)WalterBlack Wrote:  
Quote:have already immigrated to Israel and have been successfully absorbed.

   
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 12:06 AM by Tail Gunner.)
03-26-2020 12:04 AM
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bacon Offline
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Post: #1304
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 11:36 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 11:14 PM)bacon Wrote:  To give an idea approximately 7400 people die everyday in the USA. Does 247 Americans dying today from this actually move the needle of that average?

For comparisons sake, 100 people die from the flu in the US per day

"It's just the flu"

The only thing that kills more than 247 per day in the US are malignancies and cardiovascular related...

The numbers are more in line with the flu than a pandemic.

This was during last years flu season:

Quote:On February 10, 2018, Fortune reported that influenza in the United States was killing up to 4,000 Americans a week
source

But this year:

Quote:So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

Thats 123 days. So the number fluctuates between 97.5 and 243 per day based on the CDC's own estimates for earlier this year.

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"Chicks dig power, men dig beauty, eggs are expensive, sperm is cheap, men are expendable, women are perishable." - Heartiste
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 12:21 AM by bacon.)
03-26-2020 12:13 AM
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Travesty Online
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Post: #1305
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
@bacon

You really don't believe if we didn't have these shutdowns and we went along like usual without wearing masks in public that the hospitals would not get overrun and we would not be facing 1,000s of deaths per day within a few weeks?

You are arguing today's numbers like the people were in Jan. when the numbers were much lower. Do the goalposts move again when its 2,000 dead a day?

I feel like the "its no big deal people" don't have a number they care about. Just whether it is catastrophic or not. Less than catastrophic everything is A-okay.

What's the exact number that crosses the line?

And why do I get this sneaking suspicion that the vast majority "no big deal guys" are not front line healthcare workers that could be in an overrun hospital, not over 50 years old, and don't have pre-existing conditions. It's like saying a foreign war is no big deal when you aren't a soldier in it, and are sitting at home.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 12:34 AM by Travesty.)
03-26-2020 12:26 AM
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Post: #1306
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Italy CV <2 months: 7500 confirmed deaths

Italy Flu: Oct 2019-Jan 2020: 240 Confirmed deaths

Italy Flu 6 months last year: 205 confirmed deaths.

Italy Swine Flu 2009: 178 confirmed deaths

Keep bag holding the stocks bought during "the dip/correction" while complaining everyone else is caught up on the elite hoax based on Jewish/Freemason numerology. Grasp at any straw available to justify that a majority of the world must be wrong while moving the goalposts as body count goes up.

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03-26-2020 12:47 AM
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Zenta Offline
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Post: #1307
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 12:26 AM)Travesty Wrote:  @bacon

You really don't believe if we didn't have these shutdowns and we went along like usual without wearing masks in public that the hospitals would not get overrun and we would not be facing 1,000s of deaths per day within a few weeks?

You are arguing today's numbers like the people were in Jan. when the numbers were much lower. Do the goalposts move again when its 2,000 dead a day?

I feel like the "its no big deal people" don't have a number they care about. Just whether it is catastrophic or not. Less than catastrophic everything is A-okay.

What's the exact number that crosses the line?

And why do I get this sneaking suspicion that the vast majority "no big deal guys" are not front line healthcare workers that could be in an overrun hospital, not over 50 years old, and don't have pre-existing conditions. It's like saying a foreign war is no big deal when you aren't a soldier in it, and are sitting at home.

Yes, these people blow my mind with their logic. Really lets you weed people out of your life with the way they think so you don't surround yourself with them.
03-26-2020 12:49 AM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #1308
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
It's why democracy is a farce and as they say the best argument against it is a five minute conversation with the average voter.

If we took a hands off approach then by the time we could sit back and say "see, it's killed WAY more people than the flu" then it would be far too late to stop it killing way way WAY more people than the flu.

As I keep having to repeat. There was a time when the Spanish Flu had killed less people than the regular flu.

Then it had killed the same amount.

Then it began killing way more.

Then it began killing way way way WAY more.

Maybe that's just the way it has to be. Once the generational memory of plague is lost from the population then it will inevitably be restored the hard way. Hence it happens once every 100 years or so. We are simply not smart enough as a species to learn from history or even correctly apply basic mathematic principles.

Evidenced well enough by the people bitching about low markets, product shortages and lockdowns while simultaneously cheering the idea of a war with the world's newest superpower as if were going to be another far away distraction resulting in nothing but an annoying spike in gas prices.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 12:59 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-26-2020 12:50 AM
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kamoz Offline
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Post: #1309
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 12:26 AM)Travesty Wrote:  @bacon

You really don't believe if we didn't have these shutdowns and we went along like usual without wearing masks in public that the hospitals would not get overrun and we would not be facing 1,000s of deaths per day within a few weeks?

You are arguing today's numbers like the people were in Jan. when the numbers were much lower. Do the goalposts move again when its 2,000 dead a day?

I feel like the "its no big deal people" don't have a number they care about. Just whether it is catastrophic or not. Less than catastrophic everything is A-okay.

What's the exact number that crosses the line?

And why do I get this sneaking suspicion that the vast majority "no big deal guys" are not front line healthcare workers that could be in an overrun hospital, not over 50 years old, and don't have pre-existing conditions. It's like saying a foreign war is no big deal when you aren't a soldier in it, and are sitting at home.

The question from the other side of the table is, "at what point do these shelter-in-place, lockdowns, quarantines, etc cross the line?"

Can you, or others provide a timeframe after which you will say "you know what, this is BS." End of April? I might be persuaded if this does indeed end by then, but it probably won't. It will stretch out because "multiple waves", "people aren't listening", "mutations." Will the goalposts move because of that?
03-26-2020 12:55 AM
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Post: #1310
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 12:26 AM)Travesty Wrote:  @bacon

You really don't believe if we didn't have these shutdowns and we went along like usual without wearing masks in public that the hospitals would not get overrun and we would not be facing 1,000s of deaths per day within a few weeks?

You are arguing today's numbers like the people were in Jan. when the numbers were much lower. Do the goalposts move again when its 2,000 dead a day?

I feel like the "its no big deal people" don't have a number they care about. Just whether it is catastrophic or not. Less than catastrophic everything is A-okay.

What's the exact number that crosses the line?

And why do I get this sneaking suspicion that the vast majority "no big deal guys" are not front line healthcare workers that could be in an overrun hospital, not over 50 years old, and don't have pre-existing conditions. It's like saying a foreign war is no big deal when you aren't a soldier in it, and are sitting at home.

This thread has a lot of doom and gloom. The numbers to me do not justify that reaction. A true pandemic would have massive spikes in death rates. As well as actual numbers that are out of line with average daily death rates. We are not seeing that. All I can see are numbers that are in line with the CDC's own flu deaths for this year. I even provided a source to an "expert" who changed his model that was used to scare the UK public.

The efforts to control the disease are superficial at best. For example, an American goes to the store and buys groceries. Odds are they come in close proximity to a check out clerk, who would have to have come in contact with a customer with coronavirus, if it's this infectious. Then, that clerk would be a "carrier" of this infectious disease. How would that not spread that way?

How would Americans know if a member of their household was not practicing proper hygiene, wearing a mask outside or whatever to get infected. They could do everything right and that member could infect them.

Anyway, I am gonna bow out of this thread, Godspeed to all.

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(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 01:08 AM by bacon.)
03-26-2020 01:06 AM
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Handsome Creepy Eel Offline
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Post: #1311
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Comrades, you might have been worried that the UK government has horrifically fucked up the situation with its pathetic response to COVID-19 and that many people are going to die, but fear not! A brave Indian professor propagandist is here to inform us that...

Metro UK Wrote:Coronavirus ‘may have already infected half of UK population’

Up to half of the UK population may have already contracted the coronavirus, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Oxford. The study claims the disease reached the UK by mid-January ‘at the latest’ and appears to counter the modelling at Imperial College London, which the government has based its responsive measures on so far during the pandemic.

The research suggests that the disease may have already been prevalent in the UK as much two months earlier than the first case was officially diagnosed. Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, led the study and says the UK must ramp up antibody testing to discover the true stage of the pandemic in Britain.

Should the results of the study be found correct, it would suggest that just one in a thousand infected patients require hospital treatment and it raises hopes that the UK’s ‘lockdown’ measures could be lifted earlier than planned.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coronavir...-12451012/

So you can relax - we might have X infected and Y dead for a mortality rate of Z, but if we suddenly increase the number of infected by 30 million, then the mortality rate drops to <0.05%, making the coronavirus less dangerous than the flu. Yay!

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03-26-2020 01:14 AM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #1312
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
I tend to agree with Bacon. On one side you have the Imperial College report that had a scary conclusion, and on the other side you have the Oxford one that suggested the opposite. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

If you look at this tracker, it shows death count doubling rate in days, and case count doubling rate in days. Scroll down to the middle of the page. Italy is now at 5 days and 7 days, respectively. 3 days and under is generally the danger zone for exponential growth. People will attribute the deceleration in Italy to social distancing, but we simply don't know for sure. It's possible that the disease has also run low on eligible targets. The number of asymptomatic carriers and people who just aren't susceptible due to various factors can't be discounted.

South Korea is probably the best data set we have due to their testing regiment. They have a Case Fatality Rate of about 1.38%. This number keeps creeping up as more deaths roll in, but it has stayed in this ballpark as cases have dropped off.

South Korea has drive thru tests that are handling mainly symptomatic people, as I understand it. In other words, if you feel sick, you go to the drive thru. One thing that experts seem to agree on is that there are a large number of asymptomatic cases in proportion to confirmed cases.

If you estimate that for every one person testing positive in South Korea, there is another person that is asymptomatic and that has not been tested (I think this is a conservative estimate), this puts the Infection Fatality Rate at about 0.70%. One thing to keep in mind is that you also have to adjust the age pyramid from one population to another. South Korea's numbers skewed young and female because of a cult that got infected there.

0.70% is much higher than the 0.10% estimated IFR for the flu, yes. But it is not anywhere near the original numbers we heard.

Hospitals will be overrun, and this month is going to be hell, there is no question. The outstanding question is if we risk overrunning hospitals indefinitely if people go outside anytime soon. Just from looking at the available data, I lean towards no. We likely won't know for sure until a representative sample of the population undergoes a serological test for antibodies like the Oxford study was suggesting.

I don't have any kind of medical background, the above is just from what I've been reading.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 01:56 AM by Lampwick.)
03-26-2020 01:55 AM
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Stats Offline
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Post: #1313
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 01:55 AM)Lampwick Wrote:  I tend to agree with Bacon. On one side you have the Imperial College report that had a scary conclusion, and on the other side you have the Oxford one that suggested the opposite. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

That Oxford report is a HYPOTHETICAL mathematical model. Not based on any of the data from the virus. the actual data available now already disproves it entirely. the journalist that wrote the article completely takes it out of context by using wording like "MAY". as in I MAY be able to walk on water.. but in reality I can not. Conclusion BAD journalism.
03-26-2020 02:17 AM
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Post: #1314
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
I think the infectiousness and mortality rates are not at all a developing situation, but rather a well established fact because of the study that was inadvertently ran on the Diamond Princess cruise ship:

Population: 3700
Infected: 712 (19.24%)
Deaths: 10 (1.40%)


This happened in a serious country with great healthcare (Japan), in perfect conditions (everyone was tested, some people multiple times), in a closed environment (no new people boarded the ship to produce additional cases), in a normal population (skewed a bit older but not a lot older - average age of 46, similar to most western countries; also no one goes on a cruise if they're chronically ill or about to die).

This 19.24% infection rate and 1.4% death rate is literally the best-case coronavirus scenario. In imperfect conditions, where people are constantly mingling over a vast geographic area, not quarantined as soon as the epidemic begins, nor all tested and placed in isolation, both are going to be higher.

I allow for racial and regional differences (populations that are, for whatever reason, more or less susceptible to the virus), but the point is that saying "we don't yet have all the data" is nonsense.

Yes, we do have all the data, and it is a real reason for concern.

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(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 02:33 AM by Handsome Creepy Eel.)
03-26-2020 02:29 AM
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Post: #1315
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 01:55 AM)Lampwick Wrote:  South Korea has drive thru tests that are handling mainly symptomatic people, as I understand it. In other words, if you feel sick, you go to the drive thru. One thing that experts seem to agree on is that there are a large number of asymptomatic cases in proportion to confirmed cases.
South Korea have done testing to everyone(with/without symptom) who had contact with a patient directly (or sincheonji member (200K members) - you are considered 'directly contacted' for that).

People with symptoms but no connection to previously known Covid patients are also eligible for testing too as you mentioned. But contact tracing constitutes the majority of their testing.

I think asymptomatic for DP was 18% and Japan's Wuhan repatriation flight 30%

South Korea is only hitting a 2.5% positive rate in their testing which doesn't suggest widespread community asymptomatic transmissions
1 asymptomatic hidden for every positive hit is a huge flawed assumption...
The "clinical iceberg" is overhyped

Do agree on antibody tests needed.

Mother Nature is a bitch & Father Time has an undefeated record
"If you watch cinderella backwards, its about a woman who learns her place." --Kbell

demographics is destiny
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 02:52 AM by Emancipator.)
03-26-2020 02:37 AM
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Post: #1316
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Come on guys.

Give China virus a chance.
The season's only into the third month...

Already, young & plucky China virus is punching well above his weight.
There's still a few months left until the big game day.

Plus, when season two rolls around.
China virus is going to be that much more experienced & eager.
While the old guard barely put in much effort anymore.
Too comfortable are the old guard.
03-26-2020 02:37 AM
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Post: #1317
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
I sense we have reached the point where disinfo will drown out anything relevant and useful to us on this matter. A highly ranked health care professional says straight up "this is really bad" then a week later he comes back and says "on second thought, everything is going to be OK" and we're supposed to trust his second take over his first after he's no doubt been visited but the narrative squad?

Sure, OK.

No, from this point onward people are going to believe what they want to believe. If we do containment and not many people die it will be said by Team Containment that containment worked and be said by Team Darwin that the virus was never really that bad in the first place.

If we do containment and lots of people still die then Team Darwin will say containment didn't work so what was the point while Team Containment will say it would have been much worse if not for containment.

If 10,000 people in Italy die then "that's just the flu, bro".
It will be the same if 100,000 die or a million.
"Bro, more people are killed in car accidents every millennium than died of CV last week. Lol, stop being such sheep."

From here on out the Cope™ will rule the minds of the vast majority. Maths will bend to it. Science will bend to it. Even the testimony of trusted members in the thick of the fray will be bent to the Cope™.

For the rest, the time to cut away from the herd and head to high ground is well past due. I hope you've made your plans and stacked your provisions because from this point on the noise is going to drown out the signals.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 03:13 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-26-2020 03:00 AM
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Stats Offline
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Post: #1318
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 02:29 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  This 19.24% infection rate and 1.4% death rate is literally the best-case coronavirus scenario.
It does look like it is unstable at this point.

so best case scenario around 22 million dead. (not counting a positive mutation, hoax or effective vaccine being widely available much faster than ever in history or other unforeseen miracle)

worst case lets say 80% infected at 15% death rate. so 936 million dead. (not counting a devastating mutation or societal collapse.)
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 03:55 AM by Stats.)
03-26-2020 03:43 AM
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Post: #1319
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
I think that's really exaggerated. Italy is a basket case, yet it has a 10% death rate (no doubt lower because of many cases that they didn't manage to test, though Italy has performed a reasonable 323.000 tests so far). It's probably between 3 to 5%.

Undeveloped countries with terrible medical systems might fare worse, but there's really no data so far regarding that.

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03-26-2020 04:25 AM
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Post: #1320
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?
03-26-2020 04:27 AM
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CynicalContrarian Offline
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Post: #1321
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
The "Trump Curse" continues...

03-26-2020 04:39 AM
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acco Offline
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Post: #1322
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 04:27 AM)PainPositive Wrote:  Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?

Idea

Then it's time to change to the c-hoax thread.
03-26-2020 04:48 AM
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Richard Turpin Offline
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Post: #1323
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
After reading through both this thread and the Coronavirus Skeptik thread, I honestly don't know what to believe anymore.

I live in rural area of the UK and it's safe to say that without all the media hullabaloo, I and everyone else round here would be completely unaware of any virus.

I'm cautious so I prepped food-wise and treated this all very seriously since Day 1. However, I'm also extremely distrustful of government and have hardly believed a word any of them have said so far. I'll just see how this plays out and pick the bones out of it when it's all over, until then it's wiser to assume it's the real deal.

‘After you’ve got two eye-witness accounts, following an automobile accident, you begin
To worry about history’ – Tim Allen
03-26-2020 04:56 AM
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The Catalyst Offline
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Post: #1324
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-26-2020 04:27 AM)PainPositive Wrote:  Is anyone else feeling a bit more skeptical than a few days ago or is it just me?

Invite yourself over to the Skeptics of Coronovirus thread, we're not allowed to post here https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-74750.html
03-26-2020 05:01 AM
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Lace em up Offline
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Post: #1325
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
It's easy to get complacent. In the US we are in the calm before the storm. It's when the ICU beds get over capacity that people are dying in the hallways of hospitals. Any stats before that breaking point are just numbers on paper to us normies. The NYC metro area has 20M people and they are about to test the limits of the emergency healthcare system.

God bless NYC
03-26-2020 05:48 AM
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