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The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
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bacon Offline
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Post: #1276
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
So here is the catch 22 I can't get past: "Either the Cornavirus is not as infectious as feared, or it is, but it’s not as deadly. I can’t see how it is both, based on the number of deaths that have occurred this winter."

Here is article written a couple days ago, so the numbers might be slightly off.

Quote:The small real-world numbers

One problem – one massive, enormous, elephant-in-the-room-sized problem – is that the current figures provide no basis whatsoever for the worldwide terror. In the UK so far we’ve had 177 deaths caused by the virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Not 177 in the last half hour. 177 in total. This harvest of death that was going to decimate the population has resulted in … 177 fatalities. (There’ll be a few more by the time you read this, but, I bet, not that many.)

1700 people on average die in Britain every day, which amounts to an average of seventy every hour. 177 people is the equivalent of two and a half hours of normal time. In the four months since the first Covid-19 case was identified over 200 000 British people have died, so the idea that Britain is now becoming overwhelmed with more dead bodies than it can cope with because of Covid-19 doesn’t add up. Three times as many people have died in traffic accidents in that time. About ten times as many British people have offed themselves in that time.

Some other countries, of course, have worse figures. But not that bad. No zombie apocalypse. Some sad individual tragedies. Some loved grandparents, and my heart goes out to anyone who lost a loved one early. But no World War II figures. No Vietnam figures. Not even Iraq War figures. (As for Italy, those numbers are partly a result of massive illegal immigration from Wuhan, and partly an artefact of how Italy records death numbers; more on this soon. But still, Italy’s figures are far less than one day’s normal deaths.) This is a health crisis that requires more hospital beds and ventilators. It is not, however, Mars Attacks.

For example, how many Chinese people have died from all causes since mid-November? Over two million (over 7 million die in China every year). Even if China’s covering up a mountain of Covid-19 deaths on an industrial scale, it’s still just a blip. In the USA, about a million people have died in that period, so their 276 deaths is about 0.0276% of all deaths in that period (ie. about 1 in 3600 deaths are attributable to Covid-19).

In the whole world there have only been about 11 000 Covid-19 deaths. That’s roughly 0.05% of all deaths in the world in those four months, about 1/20th of one percent. (Roughly 57 million people die each year in the world.)

So even if we take the official Covid-19 figures at face value, they provide no reason to trouble even the most keen actuary, let alone the rest of us.

But, you will no doubt protest, the reason for everyone soiling themselves is not the deaths so far, it’s what to come. The exponential growth that will be happening any moment now, sending deaths skyrocketing.

Except that we’ve been waiting for this skyrocketing growth for quite some time now, and it’s not really happening. This virus has been around at least since mid-November, and probably earlier. Massive numbers of Chinese tourists from Wuhan have been travelling all over the world since then. And other people have been spreading it since then, with the usual mass travel from everywhere to everywhere happening too. This virus will have got around. Even the recent ‘lockdowns’ have only been very, very partial. We’ve had perfect conditions for this virus to spread over winter, yet we’re still waiting for the mass deaths to start. This virus has had more than enough time to spread and start killing football stadiums’ worth of people everywhere, yet it hasn’t.

We’ve been seeing warnings for months now about it, yet the killing fields are always just around the corner. But spring and warmer weather in the northern hemisphere are also just around the corner. Are we really supposed to believe that the biggest hit from this disease is going to be April and May when winter says goodbye? Yes, I know there’s been some research suggesting that the warmer weather may not slow things down so much, but that research is pretty tentative, not based on solid figures (because we don’t have any solid figure), and out of line with what normally happens.

Communicable disease epidemics almost always rise and fall in a bell-shaped curve. That’s what you rarely hear from the media. They’re always talking about the exponential growth. What they usually fail to mention is that soon after the period of exponential growth, there’s a plateau, and then an exponential drop-off. (This is sometimes known as Farr’s Law.) With these sorts of diseases the curve usually follows the seasons, at least to some degree. Coronaviruses, as far as I can gather, typically die back by mid-spring

When we look at all the daily graphs from the various countries there’s not much sign that the skyrocket is just around the corner. I don’t trust China’s figures at all, so I’m not going to mention them, but with most other countries we’re seeing either a plateau, a mild recent increase, or a dying back. If you’re an epidemiologist you may want to take issue with my analysis (and please do so if you want), but this doesn’t look like a disease that is threatening disaster upon us all. It looks like a disease that is thinking of putting its feet up for the Easter hols. Perhaps there will be a few weeks increase in some places, some of which may look alarming at the time, but then, most likely, a dying off. Then maybe a new wave in the northern hemisphere in November-December. That’s the time to prepare for. Get some more intensive care beds ready, and some ventilators built for then. Now is not the time for a shutdown and economic self-harm. Now is the time to make hay while the sun shines, and be prepared for when winter comes.

In other words, the horror stories are all in the modelling, not in real life. Sound familiar? This is what the climate change scam was based on. Scary computer models that somehow never got confirmed by real-life data, yet justified government and other institutions in grabbing more power for themselves. This is just another example, only a more effective one than climate change. Here’s a scary-looking computer model, we have to be given wartime powers right now before it happens, if you wait we’ll all be dead. It’s the oldest trick in the book for the ruling class.

Infectious and deadly?

We’re constantly told that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly infectious and highly deadly, relatively speaking, that is, compared to, for instance, influenza. This doesn’t add up. As I’ve said, we know that the virus has been spreading since at least mid-November. If it’s highly infectious, why aren’t there more cases worldwide? Mass travel and mass tourism and billions of people packed together in big cities should mean that it’s everywhere by now. Yet there’s only been 285 000 people infected. 285 000 is about 0.004% of the world’s population. That’s not my idea of infectious at all.

But, it will be objected, 285 000 won’t be the real number. No doubt millions of people have been infected, it’s just that they don’t know it, because they didn’t show any symptoms, or the infection was mild enough that they didn’t bother going to the doctor. This may well be true. But that totally undermines the idea that this is a deadly disease. If millions of people have it, or have had it, and they’re all okay (with perhaps a week off work or school for some of them), then the scary death rates of over 1% are blown out of the water. If, say, 11 million people have had it in reality, then that does make it more infectious (although that would still only be 0.14% of the world’s population), but that brings back the mortality rate to 0.1%, which is not scary at all in the communicable disease context. It’s about one in a thousand, around the same as flu. Even if we halve the number infected, we’re only talking a 0.2% death rate, which is tiny, plus we’ve halved the infectiousness of it.

So either this disease is not as infectious as feared, or it is, but it’s not as deadly. I can’t see how it is both, based on the number of deaths that have occurred this winter.

It may be objected that I am not taking proper account of hot spots. For example, it might be said that the number of deaths in Italy looks much worse if we just consider it in the context of Northern Italy, not the whole of Italy. Imagine then if it spread to the rest of Italy, and those numbers are then multiplied numerous times for the various regions.

This is a fair point, but it again underlines my point about infectiousness versus deadliness. If Covid-19 in Italy is mainly confined to parts of Northern Italy, and hasn’t yet spread much in the rest of the country, then it can’t be that infectious. As I’ve said, the relatively small number of deaths tells us that SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to be both infectious or deadly. It may be one or the other (or it may be neither), but it’s not both.

Children and the elderly

Here’s another thing. How many children have died from Covid-19? Virtually none. According to Worldometers, there have been no deaths in the 0-9 age bracket. Possibly a few have died since this was published, but from all reports death in this age bracket is virtually unheard of, and also very rare in older children too. Ask yourself: what kind of deadly disease is it that is so undeadly to young children, traditionally one of the most vulnerable groups when it comes to serious disease? Covid-19 is almost exclusively a killer of old people with underlying heart and lung conditions, or people with compromised immune systems (eg. cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy). But we know that these people are killed by even mild rhinoviruses. So most likely a lot of these deaths are deaths that were going to happen soon anyway. That’s not evidence to show that coronavirus is especially deadly. And there’s no evidence that coronavirus provides much of a threat to other people. In fact, the evidence we already have tells us that it isn’t (and even that evidence is probably vastly overstating the dangers, as we’re only looking at confirmed cases, which is probably only as fraction of the real cases).

That’s not to say that it’s all right that your sick grandmother dies three months earlier than she would otherwise have done. We don’t want that. But, realistically it’s not worth shutting down the world’s economy just to possibly give a tiny percentage of the world’s population a possible few extra months.

And how are such people going to cope in a chaotic environment with a ruined economy? There’s a very close link between life expectancy and the health of the economy. If we shaft ourselves economically that’s likely to have a lot more in the way of bad effects on at-risk elderly people than Covid-19 will. How do we pay for the necessities when there’s no money? It’s not like most Western countries have prepared for such occasions by building up surpluses during the good times. No, as we all know Western governments are all massively in debt, and constantly run large deficits, and most people have no savings and a lot of personal debt. How are you going to pay for that care home your parents are in when you lose your job? How are you going to pay for the care home you’re about to go into when your pension disappears in the stock market crash? How are care homes going to pay for quality care when the money stops coming in? If the cleaning staff don’t come in because there’s no money pay them, then diseases multiply, and the residents start dying in droves. If we really care about the elderly we owe it to them to keep the economy strong, otherwise more of them are likely to die.

Is the cure worse than the disease? Yes. A thousand times yes.

My view is that the shutdown is an insane overreaction to a nasty but not especially deadly disease. The cure is massively worse than the disease. We need to stop this government irrationality as soon as possible, and open the bars and restaurants and shops, re-open the schools, and get life to normal as much as we can, while enforcing quarantine on anyone with the disease (even this probably won’t achieve much, but it will make it seem like the government is doing something, so as to satisfy the Piers Morgans).

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(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 05:58 PM by bacon.)
03-25-2020 05:55 PM
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Cobra Offline
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Post: #1277
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
I have a legitimate question.

There is this thread and then there is a "Skeptics" thread. I get that skeptics aren't allowed in here and maybe vice versa.

Look, nothing against the fact that there is a virus but there isn't much conclusive evidence that this is deadlier than the flu. This is well documented in the other thread and at this point things are looking even more "skeptical" if you will. This is mainly due to the more robust data available now, or shall I say lack thereof.

I'm just wondering, though, why not have a wholesome debate in on thread at this point? Yes, people lose their shit but that's what men do. Debate like men and move on.

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03-25-2020 07:44 PM
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Post: #1278
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 07:44 PM)Cobra Wrote:  I have a legitimate question.

There is this thread and then there is a "Skeptics" thread. I get that skeptics aren't allowed in here and maybe vice versa.

Look, nothing against the fact that there is a virus but there isn't much conclusive evidence that this is deadlier than the flu. This is well documented in the other thread and at this point things are looking even more "skeptical" if you will. This is mainly due to the more robust data available now, or shall I say lack thereof.

I'm just wondering, though, why not have a wholesome debate in on thread at this point? Yes, people lose their shit but that's what men do. Debate like men and move on.

There are plenty of posts in this thread already, making both cases. Neither side is going to change their mind. Also, it would not be a wholesome debate. Even if we try to debate dispassionately, we will become passionate anyway. People will be banned when they get hot and bothered, all to repeat arguments that are already present in this thread. Anybody who wants to see posts expressing the other point of view can find them immediately. You don't need to force your opposing viewpoint in the opposite side's thread.

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03-25-2020 07:48 PM
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bacon Offline
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Post: #1279
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
UK deaths are down from 87 to 43.

USA deaths are down from 225 to 130.

We are looking at a 40-50% drop in deaths in a single day for the UK & the USA.

Numbers falling in Italy, France & Spain as well.

I am curious how the media spins this good news...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


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Post: #1280
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
The German government response was fubared.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...SKBN21B1T0

Quote:Germany says six million coronavirus face masks missing in Kenya
World News March 24, 2020

German customs officials are trying to track down about 6 million face masks, ordered to protect health workers from the coronavirus, that they say went missing at an airport in Kenya.

“The authorities are trying to find out what happened,” a German defence ministry spokeswoman said, confirming a report first published by Spiegel Online.

A Kenyan Airports Authority (KAA) spokeswoman said investigations had found nothing so far.

The FFP2 masks, which filter out more than 90% of particles, were ordered by German customs authorities. They and the armed forces procurement office have been helping the health ministry to get hold of urgently needed protective gear.

The shipment was due in Germany on March 20 but never arrived after disappearing at the end of last week at an airport in Kenya. It was unclear why the masks, produced by a German firm, had been in Kenya.

“What exactly happened, whether this a matter of theft or a provider who isn’t serious, is being cleared up by customs,” a German government source said, asking not to be named.

Spiegel Online reported Germany has placed orders worth 241 million euros ($260.57 million) with suppliers for protective and sanitary equipment to fight the novel coronavirus.

The defence ministry spokeswoman said there was no financial impact from the loss of the masks as no money had been paid.

Germany is preparing its hospitals and health workers for a big increase in admissions of patients with the virus. It has 27,436 confirmed coronavirus cases and 114 people have died, the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases said.
03-25-2020 08:08 PM
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RexImperator Offline
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Post: #1281
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
^^^ Some African thief’s reaction to that:
Laugh3

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03-25-2020 08:10 PM
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Post: #1282
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Quote: Look, nothing against the fact that there is a virus but there isn't much conclusive evidence that this is deadlier than the flu.

Well, one way to look at it is that even if it is found to be no deadlier, there’s no herd immunity like there is to flu since it’s a novel virus and it spreads like wildfire. The key difference being that without measures everyone catches it almost at once and those needing care overwhelm the hospitals.

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03-25-2020 08:19 PM
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Bury Zenek Offline
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Post: #1283
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Maybe it got nicked by the Italian mafia! Dancingman

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(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 08:22 PM by Bury Zenek.)
03-25-2020 08:19 PM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #1284
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 02:21 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  ^^^ How do you isolate half the population (old/ill or both?)

For example

40% of Americans are chronically ill that’s 133M people

34% of Americans are above age 50 (111M)

Well apparently we've reached levels of cope where smoking weed or breathing 1st world city pollution is a co-morbidity factor that will make the common flu fatal in 20 year olds, so my guess is that by the time we quarantine the vulnerable we will be left with Hector the 18 year old hippy living on his organic farm in the hills.

Personally I'm looking forward to explanations about how aged care workers are going to be locked into their facilities to take care of the vulnerable while their kids figure out how to get themselves to kindergarten for the next 18 months.

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03-25-2020 08:21 PM
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Post: #1285
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Which should serve us right to be honest as God didn't intend us to vape or inhale diesel smoke or eat synthetic food preservatives. We brought this shit on ourselves and it's only fair we should pay the price.

George Carlin - You are all diseased! (1999)
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03-25-2020 08:24 PM
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Post: #1286
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 07:44 PM)Cobra Wrote:  I have a legitimate question.

There is this thread and then there is a "Skeptics" thread. I get that skeptics aren't allowed in here and maybe vice versa.

Look, nothing against the fact that there is a virus but there isn't much conclusive evidence that this is deadlier than the flu. This is well documented in the other thread and at this point things are looking even more "skeptical" if you will. This is mainly due to the more robust data available now, or shall I say lack thereof.

I'm just wondering, though, why not have a wholesome debate in on thread at this point? Yes, people lose their shit but that's what men do. Debate like men and move on.

And waste a perfectly good freak out? What a waste. Theres' still plenty of visceral fear meat on the bone to wring the juice out of before this crisis' carcass is dumped in the bin.

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03-25-2020 08:31 PM
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Post: #1287
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Via Jon Rappoport:

"The UK government, on its website, announced on March 23, under "Status of COVID-19":

"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.""
03-25-2020 08:37 PM
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Post: #1288
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 07:48 PM)bacon Wrote:  UK deaths are down from 87 to 43.

USA deaths are down from 225 to 130.

We are looking at a 40-50% drop in deaths in a single day for the UK & the USA.

Numbers falling in Italy, France & Spain as well.

I am curious how the media spins this good news...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US reported deaths today are now up to 164. I looked at this site for the first time this morning, and it showed 5 new deaths for today (March 25). I thought, Wow! The deaths today are way down! Then I realized it was only early in the morning and the reports all come out later in the day. I expect the tally for a given day isn't really complete until Midnight Hawaiian time.

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Post: #1289
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

Roosh
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03-25-2020 09:05 PM
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Post: #1290
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III

(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 09:14 PM by budoslavic.)
03-25-2020 09:13 PM
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Post: #1291
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Incredible - Trump actually did it - he drained the swamp AND (more or less) shut down the border.

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03-25-2020 09:39 PM
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Post: #1292
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Really growing tired of the following:

"Well they were old"
"Well they were diabetic"
"Well they probably did this or that or were obese or didn't floss every day"

Get off your high horses of Darwin elitism. Even if you are perfect, we have not enough evidence that this virus gives a fuck either way.

Even if I were a barbed-wire chewing machine of a man with zero imperfections, there would still be loved ones around me that have risk factors and that I am tasked with assisting.

If you feel carefree and invincible with no weight on your shoulders because you view yourself as genetically perfect, well aligned to deflect this virus, and have no strings attached to anyone unlike yourself - I truly feel sorry for you.

If this is you, get your ass into gear and do something for someone else. Someone with less of a fighting chance as you.

Be a leader. Be a man. And use the blessings you've been bestowed with to help others through the fight.
03-25-2020 09:44 PM
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Post: #1293
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 09:13 PM)budoslavic Wrote:  

Anecdotes like these from the media have zero value other than to panic people and increase all the dangerous flow on effects that mass panic creates.
03-25-2020 09:45 PM
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Post: #1294
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
Quote:Germany says six million coronavirus face masks missing in Kenya
World News March 24, 2020

I googled the hell out of that title and couldn't find one instance where the word "irony" popped up.

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Post: #1295
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-24-2020 09:56 PM)Dusty Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 10:13 PM)Dusty Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 09:37 PM)Dusty Wrote:  
(03-22-2020 11:04 AM)Dusty Wrote:  
(03-21-2020 03:45 PM)Dusty Wrote:  COVID-19 US deaths:

3/18 150, +38% from prior day
3/19 207, +38% from prior day
3/20 256, +24% from prior day

The daily death growth rate slowed yesterday. Let’s hope that’s a new trend. Only one data point though.

Huge difference between 38% daily growth, versus 24%.

The three day rolling average daily death growth rate is 33%. You take that out 30 days, and you have 1.4 million deaths. Let’s keep an eye on that and hope it decelerates.

Update

COVID-19 US deaths (Worldometer):

3/19 207, +38% from prior day
3/20 256, +24% from prior day
3/21 302, +18% from prior day

3 day rolling average daily growth rate: 27%. At that rate, the number of deaths doubles every three days.

Today’s numbers are in on Worldometer. Not a good day.

COVID-19 US deaths (Worldometer):

3/20 256, +24% from prior day
3/21 302, +18% from prior day
3/22 419, +39% from prior day

3 day rolling average daily growth rate: 27%. At that rate, the number of deaths doubles every three days.

COVID-19 US deaths (Worldometer):

3/21 302, +18% from prior day
3/22 413, +37% from prior day
3/23 553, +34% from prior day

3 day rolling average daily growth rate: 30%. At that rate, the number of deaths more than doubles every three days. If this growth rate were to continue, we’d reach one million COVID-19 deaths in the next 29 days.

Not a good day.

COVID-19 US deaths (Worldometer):

3/22 413, +37% from prior day
3/23 553, +34% from prior day
3/24 778, +41% from prior day

3 day rolling average daily growth rate: 37%. At that rate, the number of deaths doubles in less than three days. If this growth rate were to continue, we’d reach over one million COVID-19 deaths in the next 23 days.

I’m going to start tracking the Johns Hopkins USA deaths.

Johns Hopkins

3/24 783

COVID-19 US deaths (Worldometer -Bacon, you need to check at the end of the day):

3/23 553, +34% from prior day
3/24 778, +41% from prior day
3/25 1,027, + 32% from prior day

3 day rolling average daily growth rate: 36%. At that rate, the number of deaths doubles in less than three days. If this growth rate were to continue, we’d reach over one million COVID-19 deaths in the next 23 days.

Johns Hopkins USA deaths.

3/24 783
3/25 1,041, + 33% from prior day
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 10:34 PM by Dusty.)
03-25-2020 10:33 PM
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Travesty Offline
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Post: #1296
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
@bacon

[Image: LLP4Gvh.png]

March 25 (GMT)
13347 new cases and 247 new deaths in the United States. Total cases top 60,000 [sources]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/

South Korea under its lockdown measures is still very slowly increasing its deaths per day. They were 10 days ahead of us for their first death and they still haven't completely flattened their death growth curve, and their stricter measures were put into place before ours. Not to mention they wear masks way more in public. Also, their death growth rate hasn't plateaued yet even though they do not have overrun hospitals as far as I know. Meaning I would be shocked if the U.S. could even plateau its death rate growth curve in less than 2.5 weeks from now, if it happens it will be due to drug therapy used early on in diagnosis.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/italy/

Italy's log growth is starting to flatten but deaths are still slightly increasing it looks like.
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 11:09 PM by Travesty.)
03-25-2020 10:36 PM
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Post: #1297
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 09:44 PM)presidentcarter Wrote:  Really growing tired of the following:

"Well they were old"
"Well they were diabetic"
"Well they probably did this or that or were obese or didn't floss every day"

Get off your high horses of Darwin elitism. Even if you are perfect, we have not enough evidence that this virus gives a fuck either way.

Even if I were a barbed-wire chewing machine of a man with zero imperfections, there would still be loved ones around me that have risk factors and that I am tasked with assisting.

If you feel carefree and invincible with no weight on your shoulders because you view yourself as genetically perfect, well aligned to deflect this virus, and have no strings attached to anyone unlike yourself - I truly feel sorry for you.

If this is you, get your ass into gear and do something for someone else. Someone with less of a fighting chance as you.

Be a leader. Be a man. And use the blessings you've been bestowed with to help others through the fight.

The irony is that the vast majority of these "let the weak die" Darwinist types don't even have children and will ardently refuse to do so if said children cause the slightest burden to their metropolitan hedonist lifestyles.

Wrap your head around that.

Meanwhile I'm more than a little skeptical that (((pornhub))) isn't offering free premium content to get the goyim cooming more than ever before just in time for their depleted bodies to get hit by a megavirus.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
03-25-2020 10:37 PM
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Post: #1298
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 09:45 PM)Rush87 Wrote:  ...

Anecdotes like these from the media have zero value other than to panic people and increase all the dangerous flow on effects that mass panic creates.

Incorrect.

It will convince many people to stop spreading the disease by flaunting travel restrictions because even if they're morally bankrupt or just plain stupid enough to ignore everyone else's safety they might at least think about what will happen to them if they end up in a hospital with no staff, equipment or medicine.

And just maybe it will be enough to convince them to stop attending parties and having sex with strangers for five whole minutes.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
03-25-2020 10:44 PM
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Post: #1299
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 10:36 PM)Travesty Wrote:  @bacon

[Image: LLP4Gvh.png]

March 25 (GMT)
13347 new cases and 247 new deaths in the United States. Total cases top 60,000 [sources]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...uth-korea/

South Korea under its lockdown measures is still very slowly increasing its deaths per day. They were 10 days ahead of us for their first death and they still haven't completely flattened their death growth curve, and their stricter measures were put into place before ours. Not to mention they wear masks way more in public. Also, their death growth rate hasn't plateaued yet even though they do not have overrun hospitals as far as I know. Meaning I would be shocked if the U.S. could even plateau its death rate growth curve in less than 2.5 weeks from now, if it happens it will be due to drug therapy used early on in diagnosis.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/italy/

Italy's log growth is starting to flatten but deaths are still slightly increasing it looks like.

I feel like you are missing the gist of the post. 247 new deaths, of which the majority are likely a combination of very old and or suffering from preexisting conditions does not make for a pandemic. Maybe you can argue it is super deadly. Fine. But you can not also claim that it is spreading rapidly, because a true pandemic would lead to far more deaths. To give an idea approximately 7400 people die everyday in the USA. Does 247 Americans dying today from this actually move the needle of that average? If this virus is that infectious it had to have been around for months all over the world. Where are the numbers of people dying to justify this response? Even the "experts" who modeled the projections of doom are changing their tune.

Professor Ferguson’s Imperial College London (ICL) coronavirus response team published a paper showing that 250,000 people in the UK could die. Now he is saying:

Quote:Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.

But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year.

Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a Keep Calm and Carry On mug, Prof Ferguson said: “We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?

“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations.

source

Game/red pill article links

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(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 11:26 PM by bacon.)
03-25-2020 11:14 PM
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Post: #1300
RE: The Coronavirus Pandemic thread III
(03-25-2020 11:14 PM)bacon Wrote:  To give an idea approximately 7400 people die everyday in the USA. Does 247 Americans dying today from this actually move the needle of that average?

For comparisons sake, 100 people die from the flu in the US per day

"It's just the flu"

The only thing that kills more than 247 per day in the US are malignancies and cardiovascular related...
----------------------------
Expect Japan to trend upwards again...


But Japan didn't close schools or restrict social gatherings***

***Japan did close schools and most sports/music events have been cancelled

Mother Nature is a bitch & Father Time has an undefeated record
"If you watch cinderella backwards, its about a woman who learns her place." --Kbell

demographics is destiny
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2020 11:38 PM by Emancipator.)
03-25-2020 11:36 PM
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