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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #501
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 01:35 PM)Blade Runner Wrote:  When does the inflationary period that so many have been waiting for, begin?

If we could accurately predict that, we would be decamillionaires in short order.

Being right means nothing in investing. Timing is everything in investing.
Yesterday 01:53 PM
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Post: #502
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 01:35 PM)Blade Runner Wrote:  When does the inflationary period that so many have been waiting for, begin?

The vast majority of money printing has gone into corporate coffers, the biggest of the big on Wall Street. The tiny bailout funds of $1200 per person are peanuts in comparison. The money supply is being distributed around the very top 10% and above in terms of wealth, which is the ownership class. There's not enough money moving on the bottom 90% to get any real inflation in the near-term, as there's a huge demand dropoff for goods and services, meaning that prices/inflation can't rise until the middle and lower classes get back to work, which likely won't be months from now.

All the money printing at the top of things will not trickle down to the average consumer and hit them with huge inflation until our out of control Federal budgets start defaulting when they can't even pay the interest on the debt, meaning a lack of faith in the USD, runs on banks and so forth happen. Still likely years away for mega inflation, but certainly within our lifetimes.

Now is the time to try and hedge against future inflation by owning tangible things (land, equipment, guns, ammo, silver, gold, etc.).

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Yesterday 01:54 PM
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SlickyBoy Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^yeah we are all supposed to cheer at a one time payment for $1200, while wall street quite literally is going to get trillions.

I don't see anything to give me comfort that "mega inflation" is years away. Could be, but could just as well be more imminent given the ongoing printing.

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Yesterday 06:13 PM
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NoMoreTO Offline
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Post: #504
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 01:54 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:35 PM)Blade Runner Wrote:  When does the inflationary period that so many have been waiting for, begin?

The vast majority of money printing has gone into corporate coffers, the biggest of the big on Wall Street. The tiny bailout funds of $1200 per person are peanuts in comparison. The money supply is being distributed around the very top 10% and above in terms of wealth, which is the ownership class. There's not enough money moving on the bottom 90% to get any real inflation in the near-term, as there's a huge demand dropoff for goods and services, meaning that prices/inflation can't rise until the middle and lower classes get back to work, which likely won't be months from now.

All the money printing at the top of things will not trickle down to the average consumer and hit them with huge inflation until our out of control Federal budgets start defaulting when they can't even pay the interest on the debt, meaning a lack of faith in the USD, runs on banks and so forth happen. Still likely years away for mega inflation, but certainly within our lifetimes.

Now is the time to try and hedge against future inflation by owning tangible things (land, equipment, guns, ammo, silver, gold, etc.).

I agree with the above.

I think when the smoke clears (if it does) and people go back to spending, that's when all the inflation will come.

There will be all this money circulating around, but is there any increased productivity? No
Will goods be shipping in from China cheaper? Guessing No

If I get another chance I will be following the plan, country living, investments in equipment and real assets, solid working personal relationships over corporate ones which might pay more.

I don't need a granite countertop to be happy.

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools. Rom 1:22
Yesterday 07:56 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #505
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 06:13 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  ^yeah we are all supposed to cheer at a one time payment for $1200, while wall street quite literally is going to get trillions.

Well, anyone on this thread has likely benefited. All the QE and all the artificially low interest rates inflated stock prices beyond all reason -- and staved off any natural price declines and recessions. So, anyone investing in the stock market since 2008 has benefited greatly, which would likely include everyone on this thread. It is the poor working stiffs, who mostly live from paycheck-to-paycheck, who the economy has left behind.

This wealth disparity will eventually lead to increased socialism, which will lead to capital flight. This happened all over Europe in recent decades. It will eventually happen in the U.S. It is just part of historical cycles, because society never learns. Ray Dalio wrote about it in an article just today:

Quote:When the rich fear that their money will be taken away and/or that they will be treated with hostility, that leads them to move their money and themselves to places, assets, and/or currencies they feel are safer. If allowed to continue, these movements reduce the tax and spending revenue in the locations experiencing these conflicts, which leads to a classic self-reinforcing hollowing out process in the places that money is leaving. That’s because less tax money worsens conditions, which raises tensions and taxes, which causes more emigration of the rich and even worse conditions, etc. For example we are now seeing some of that happening via the rich leaving higher-tax states where there is financial stress and large wealth gaps. When it gets bad enough, governments no longer allow it to happen—i.e., they outlaw the flows of money out of the places that are losing it and to the places, assets, and/or currencies that are getting it, which causes further panic by those seeking to protect themselves.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-1...RMoQ%3D%3D


I moved most of my wealth out of the U.S. years ago. Any student of history can see what is coming via a fractured society -- and it is not good.

I was also well on my way to moving my person. Damn virus.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 08:09 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 08:01 PM
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Blade Runner Offline
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Post: #506
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
True, TG. And I'm pretty sure you need to be right and have the timing, btw (-:

As for the inflation question, which I intentionally made short and open ended, it does seem to me that there will be quite some time before all of that money hits the "real economy" and more importantly, the function of inflation ultimately (as Martin Armstrong stresses) is confidence, as Mr. Kane points out. Confidence is lost, THEN spending and chasing of goods occurs because of the realization of what is going on, on the ground with Joe Q. Public on Main Street.

Chris Macintosh put this wonderfully recently, stating that one really has to refine the perspective on inflation and deflation, because it occurs simultaneously in different sectors of the economy according to how much manipulation is going on. I noticed that and talked about it a lot, and is quite obvious when you just state it clearly. For example, medical costs, cars, housing, and universities are all highly government and/or credit related, so they have been tremendously inflated. As opposed to the common goods that are more "market based" and also generally produced by slave labor wages over the past 15-20 years.
Yesterday 08:18 PM
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Blade Runner Offline
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Post: #507
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 08:01 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  I moved most of my wealth out of the U.S. years ago. Any student of history can see what is coming via a fractured society -- and it is not good.

I was also well on my way to moving my person. Damn virus.

I'm not much of a fan of Dalio, but he is accurate there, for sure. Just look at South America, among other places.

Where do you think the most hospitable places will be? Where did you plan to go, or move your assets? A general answer is fine. Thanks.
Yesterday 08:21 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #508
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 08:21 PM)Blade Runner Wrote:  
(Yesterday 08:01 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  I moved most of my wealth out of the U.S. years ago. Any student of history can see what is coming via a fractured society -- and it is not good.

I was also well on my way to moving my person. Damn virus.

I'm not much of a fan of Dalio, but he is accurate there, for sure. Just look at South America, among other places.

Where do you think the most hospitable places will be? Where did you plan to go, or move your assets? A general answer is fine. Thanks.

Any country with a true market economy (e.g., interest rates established by the market), a low corruption rate, and a rule of law (e.g., that treats foreign investors like it does the locals).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 09:46 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 09:45 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Tail risk of moving your assets overseas, unless you have a LOT of money and can pay somebody to be your designated agent for you, seems really dangerous.

1.) You're exposing yourself to FACTA hassles and headaches.
2.) You have no physical presence in the country, if something goes wrong you can't go to your local branch and get it worked out.
3.) The US is the world's biggest economy, if it goes down in a massive hyperinflation situation there's no reason to think anybody else will emerge unscathed either.
4.) Transfer fees are a hassle, even with transferwise. It's like 1%~3%, which on a large portfolio is a lot of money.
Yesterday 10:43 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Tail risk of moving your assets overseas, unless you have a LOT of money and can pay somebody to be your designated agent for you, seems really dangerous.

As someone who has actually done this in practice, I can verify that everything that you said is wrong. While it is true, as in all aspects of life, that things are easier when you have amassed more capital, the phrase "really dangerous" is an extreme exaggeration.


(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  1.) You're exposing yourself to FACTA hassles and headaches.

I hired a CPA that specializes in offshore business formation and taxation. Problem solved. Always hire an expert outside your areas of expertise. This does not require a great deal of money, especially after the first year.


(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  2.) You have no physical presence in the country, if something goes wrong you can't go to your local branch and get it worked out.

The manager of my farm is a local from an established multi-generational farming family. For example, when the pandemic broke, they immediately hired an on-site doctor for the employees who work all the farms that they manage, while management works from home.


(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  3.) The US is the world's biggest economy, if it goes down in a massive hyperinflation situation there's no reason to think anybody else will emerge unscathed either.

As I stated earlier, invest in a country with a true market economy (e.g., interest rates established by the market). Such countries will bounce back more quickly, because they already have a market economy versus a socialist or crony capitalist system -- and actually make or grow real things.


(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  4.) Transfer fees are a hassle, even with transferwise. It's like 1%~3%, which on a large portfolio is a lot of money.

I am not sure what you mean by transfer fees, but I used my on-line Schwab account to directly make payment to the seller's U.S. account in USD with no fees. It took a few minutes. You truly can work around most obstacles with some ingenuity or imagination.


As usual, people with no actual experience trot out the parade-of-horribles scenario to scare the wage slaves to stay within the boundaries of their home nations. Honestly, I cannot imagine anything more terrifying than staying in the Western financial system, which is why I ejected (mostly) from the financial system years ago. The choice is yours: explore the free market world or remain a part of the slave class -- and leave all your assets exposed to a broken, rotten, and rigged financial system.

   
(This post was last modified: Today 12:42 AM by Tail Gunner.)
Today 12:32 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Beware of leveraged ETFs, especially during this time of extreme market volatility. Over the past two weeks, almost thirty leveraged ETFs and ETNs experienced the cessation of trading -- sometimes overnight. As of March 23th, twenty-nine leveraged and inverse exchange-traded products had been de-listed, closed, or automatically accelerated -- or their issuers had announced that they would be doing so soon. This article explains why.

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-an...nopaging=1
Today 12:48 AM
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DamienCasanova Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
https://fashthenation.com/2020/03/how-tr...l-markets/

SO now that we know Black Rock is behind this crash and bailout, and that they now own the Fed & Treasury, how do we profit?

Wait til stonks crash some more and invest in Black Rock's ETFs? Buy puts on the way down?

IWM $95 put april 17th?
SPY $220 put april 17
Today 12:31 PM
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Post: #513
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Yesterday 10:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Tail risk of moving your assets overseas, unless you have a LOT of money and can pay somebody to be your designated agent for you, seems really dangerous.
As pointed out, no, the risk is not tall. In fact it's probably a taller risk to cling to the idea that it's somehow un-American or illegal to explore foreign options.

Quote:1.) You're exposing yourself to FACTA hassles and headaches.
What hassles? If you're talking about having a foreign bank account, no it isn't. Report it if the amount is $10k or greater, as well as any interest income you may have earned. Problem solved.


Quote:2.) You have no physical presence in the country, if something goes wrong you can't go to your local branch and get it worked out.
My bank is not located in my state and I've never been to any branch offices for over 25 years, not even when I opened the account. Again, so what?

Quote:3.) The US is the world's biggest economy, if it goes down in a massive hyperinflation situation there's no reason to think anybody else will emerge unscathed either.
Hyperinflation is a conscious decision by governments to over-print their currency. It has nothing to do with a "how-big-is-your-dick?" contest over the size of the economy, military might or other irrelevant metrics. It is very possible to have hyperinflation occur in one country while the one next door is fine - even when otherwise strong economies like Germany or Austria hyperinflated, countries next door did not "catch the illness." See the movie The Joyless Street for reference about life in a hyperinflated country with foreigners present, holding non-hyperinflated currency.

Quote:4.) Transfer fees are a hassle, even with transferwise. It's like 1%~3%, which on a large portfolio is a lot of money.
You can mail and deposit a check into an overseas bank for free. If you're in a hurry, which by now you might want to be, a wire transfer is about fifty bucks give or take.

Doing nothing, then sitting on a pile of hyperinflated currency will make small transactions costs of today seem a quaint memory. But all of that depends upon having the account in the first place, which it is impossible to do in some countries without international travel to the bank itself.

Don't be the financial equivalent of an American cruise ship passenger when it comes to all things foreign and scary. Find out about them from actual sources - not bury-gold-in-the-backyard blogs - and decide with proper information versus categorically dismiss them outright.

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Today 02:04 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(Today 12:48 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Beware of leveraged ETFs, especially during this time of extreme market volatility. Over the past two weeks, almost thirty leveraged ETFs and ETNs experienced the cessation of trading -- sometimes overnight. As of March 23th, twenty-nine leveraged and inverse exchange-traded products had been de-listed, closed, or automatically accelerated -- or their issuers had announced that they would be doing so soon. This article explains why.

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-an...nopaging=1

A very timely warning. I just sold out of my 3X leveraged gold fund UGLD today after reaping some tidy profits. The risk in these products is moderately high in a stable environment but can be off the charts when volatility like the present rears its ugly head.

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Today 02:30 PM
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John Michael Kane Online
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Read the whole article. It is worth it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corpor...ing-coming

A Corporate-Debt Reckoning Is Coming

Quote:Corporate debt is the timebomb everyone saw ticking, but no one was able to defuse. Ratings agencies warned about it: Moody’s, S&P. Central banks and international financial institutions did too: the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank for International Settlements, the IMF. Financial luminaries expressed concern: Jamie Dimon, Seth Klarman, Jes Staley, Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry McVey. Even a presidential candidate brought the issue on the campaign trail: Elizabeth Warren. Yet, as we’ve documented in these pages for more than two years, corporations have only piled on more debt as their balance sheet health has deteriorated.

Total U.S. non-financial corporate debt sits at just under $10 trillion, a record 47% of GDP. One in six U.S. companies is now a zombie, meaning their interest expenses exceed their earnings before interest and taxes. As of year-end 2019, the percentage of listed companies in the U.S. losing money over 12 months sat close to 40%. In the 12 months to November, non-financial S&P 500 cash balances had declined by 11%, the largest percentage decline since at least 1980.

For too long, record-low interest rates inspired complacency, from companies to lenders to regulators and investors. As we warned in WILTW August 8, 2019, corporate fundamentals will eventually matter. Now, with COVID-19 grinding the global economy to a halt, that time has come.

Systemic threats are littered throughout the corporate debt ecosystem. Greater than 50% of outstanding debt is rated BBB, one rung above junk. As downgrades come, asset managers will be forced to flood the market with supply at a time demand has dried up. Meanwhile, leveraged loans — which have swelled by 50% since 2015 to over $1.2 trillion — threaten unprecedented losses given covenant deterioration. And bond ETFs could face a liquidity crisis as a flood of redemptions force offloading of all-too-illiquid bonds (see WILTW January 31, 2019).

Red lights are now flashing. Distressed debt in the U.S. has quadrupled in less than a week to nearly $1 trillion. Last week, bond fund outflows quadrupled the previous record, which was set the previous week (chart below). Moody’s and S&P have already declared a significant portion of outstanding debt under review for potential downgrade. Leveraged loan spreads have ballooned to the point that the market for new loan issuance is effectively closed. Bond ETFs have been trading at historic discounts versus the NAV of their underlying bonds. And CLOs are facing the prospect of an existential crisis as Libor plunges and threatens to dip below zero.

[Image: 0_65QhUMi_OnTGR0pg.png?itok=fscH55my]

There's more in the article above, it is really eye-opening. That 1 in 6 US firms are now zombie companies is staggering. If any of you guys still own corporate bonds, you should really be looking at the balance sheets and cash positions of the companies that hold them. Judging by the numbers above, you can't afford to hang on to dead weight.

John Michael Kane's Datasheets: Master The Credit Game: Save & Make Money By Being Credit Savvy
Boycott these companies that hate men: King's Wiki Boycott List

Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value. -Albert Einstein
Today 03:01 PM
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