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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #201
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but this is one of the best Covid-19 trackers that I've seen so far:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Like some posters have mentioned, they will be looking at the number of cases very closely before making investment decisions. If others have similar helpful resources, please feel free to post them.
03-17-2020 10:55 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #202
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm using this one, it seems like the best of them:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
03-17-2020 10:56 PM
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Post: #203
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
We've officially hit banana republic levels:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-...collateral

Fed Launches Primary Dealer Credit Facility Which Will Accept Stocks As Collateral


"Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment grade debt securities, including commercial paper and municipal bonds, and a broad range of equity securities."

Quote:This means that dealers can now buy stocks at what are still massively overinflated valuations thanks to trillions in central bank liquidity, knowing they can then turn around and pledge them to the Fed at a collateral value that is determined after several rounds of single malt between the fund and some NY Mellon back-office lackey who will write down pretty much anything in exchange for a free dinner, and even if the stocks crashes the Fed will still assign whatever value BNY Mellon decides it is "worth", basically giving the dealers not only a costless purchase but also a free put option!

That said not all equities are eligible as collateral: "the following equities would not be eligible: exchange traded funds (ETFs), unit investment trusts, mutual funds, rights and warrants"

Top comment:

"So...

If the stock price goes down...the taxpayers take it right up the @ss.

If the stock price goes up...they repay the loan/take the stock back, no taxpayer gains.



It really is long past time to END THE FED."


The rich get bailed out huge again, even if they invest in stocks they are allowed to sell the shit stocks to the Fed so that they can avoid any losses.

It's enough to make me go Communist or agitate for a state succession. We pay taxes so the rich can get bailed out with it. We are living in feudal times where the chosen live in luxury for no reason other than rigging the game for themselves.

TL; DR: Stock buyback program is put in place to rape Americans.

Contributor at Return of Kings. You can follow me on Gab.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 11:54 AM by Samseau.)
03-18-2020 11:53 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Post: #204
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I've put this before but I sure hope you guys are not buying now. There is so much behind the scenes BS going on that regular people and those who know what to do are getting killed. Only the big players are getting $$$ and those shorting.

Trump signed Defense Production Act today.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health...KKBN2152XL

Quote:WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump moved on Wednesday to accelerate production of desperately needed medical equipment to battle the coronavirus pandemic and said an estimate that U.S. unemployment could conceivably reach 20 percent was a worst case scenario.

Wikipedia


This is from 2009 under Obama:
https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ6...publ67.htm
03-18-2020 03:08 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #205
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
So much for flight to quality - monetary metals Gold and Silver getting hit hard...

Coin value calculations use the 2:11 PM PDT silver price for March 18, 2020: Silver $11.98/oz -0.65

Coin value calculations use the 2:10 PM PDT gold price for March 18, 2020: Gold $1487.60/oz -41.80

Bitcoin hit a low of 5001 today could retest previous lows 3000 or 1000.

S&P 10 Year Weekly Trend Channel Broken low with conviction as well:

New Continuous Futures weekly low 2262 and Dropping... ATH 3397.75 Todays low 2262 for a 1135.75 drop or down 33.4% and still dropping - 10 year Bull Market officially broken and Trend reversed down.


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Official Whitehouse.gov President Trump's achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists 45 Goals for the USA:
https://www.beliefnet.com/columnists/wat...-1963.html
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 05:32 PM by Deepdiver.)
03-18-2020 05:29 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #206
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Schiff on a Tear:

Peter Schiff: The Real Crash Is Here




Deepdiver - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Trump's achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists 45 Goals for the USA:
https://www.beliefnet.com/columnists/wat...-1963.html
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 05:35 PM by Deepdiver.)
03-18-2020 05:34 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #207
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 10:10 PM)Samseau Wrote:  
Quote:All that said, I'm not convinced, at this point, that this is still "the big one" and going to be a reset of the system where it will take 5, 10, 20 years to recover, like many pundits and posters here are saying. he market was not impressed with the new QE and stimulus measures today, no. But, these are almost unprecedented levels of liquidity and stimulus. It's ALOT of money. The cornonavirus is basically a weight on top of a coiled spring. That spring is all the liquidity, QE and money that's being strategically injected into the system. Once this plays out, over a few months, there's a good chance that weight will eventually be lifted and we'll come roaring back, big time. This may just end up being a cyclical bear market within a secular bull, that for now, is still in tact.

Doesn't matter if the "market" comes back after the Chinese virus goes away. The real economy, with people's jobs and wages, will be broken for a very long time. Old supply chains are gone and are not coming back. Entire industries will need to be rebuilt from scratch. It's going to be a very long time before this happens. Sorry for people who just want this to be over with, but the kind of damage we are suffering right now is permanent.

Right now we are still in the "denial" stage, acceptence will come after the Dow sinks below 17K methinks. Then everyone throws in the towel. Once the market "recovers" from the huge inflation caused by printing 10+ trillion dollars (which is where we are headed before this crisis is over, probably going to print much more), the real economy's problems can start to be addressed which will massive. Stocks may soar up but the purchasing power of the dollar will be trashed forever, and the old model of sweatshop labor in the 3rd world to sell in the 1st world will be gone.

Globalism is dying and may never come back. Just the politcal fallout alone will make free trade extremely unpopular if not impossible in the future. Even Democrats know they cannot go back to the free trade canard without getting destroyed in the general.

Switching from Globalism to Localism will be very painful because we were so accustomed to the old ways. On the plus side, wages are going to skyrocket from inflation, but old people, the welfare class, and other dependents (such as disability) will be driven into extreme poverty as their welfare bucks buy them little.

I was thinking like this today too. So many people on TV are saying "generational buying opportunity". They are in denial about how bad it is going to be.

When the S&P was 700 in 2008 almost no one was saying that shit.

My guess is the elites haven't fully liquidated yet and they need you suckers to buy "shawks".

Gold going down still is a good sign that people are liquidating. Otherwise, they would just hold it. I mean look how much we're going to print!!!
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 06:43 PM by godzilla.)
03-18-2020 06:40 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #208
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
NOTE: This is not Sam the sober investor speaking, this is Sam the exasperated internet poster speaking. Nothing I say is financial advice, but this REALLY isn't financial advice.



Jesus Christ everybody's losing their goddamn heads over this thing. Even people who are normally rational and sober are pronouncing it the end of the fucking universe. "The virus has a 90% asymptomatic spread rate!"
"If you get it, it will ruin your lungs forever and you'll never be able to run again!" "Even with lockdowns, 50 million will die!"

If people are THIS fucking crazy, does that mean it's buy time? It feels like buy time. 'cause Jesus Christ how much more absolutely insane can people get?
03-18-2020 07:04 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #209
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:04 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  NOTE: This is not Sam the sober investor speaking, this is Sam the exasperated internet poster speaking. Nothing I say is financial advice, but this REALLY isn't financial advice.



Jesus Christ everybody's losing their goddamn heads over this thing. Even people who are normally rational and sober are pronouncing it the end of the fucking universe. "The virus has a 90% asymptomatic spread rate!"
"If you get it, it will ruin your lungs forever and you'll never be able to run again!" "Even with lockdowns, 50 million will die!"

If people are THIS fucking crazy, does that mean it's buy time? It feels like buy time. 'cause Jesus Christ how much more absolutely insane can people get?

Nope. Definitely not "buy" time. But you nailed the approximate buy time when you asked "how much more absolutely insane can people get?"

My personal plan for my own portfolio is to wait until the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases begins to peak. That will likely be the time of peak panic.

Stated another way, investing is never about actual reality. It is about investor sentiment.

Name whichever investing legend you wish. Warren Buffet. Lord Rothschild. They knew. Blood in the streets? Maximum peak panic? Time to buy.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 07:15 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-18-2020 07:10 PM
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frozen-ace Offline
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Post: #210
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^^ yea it’s too soon to buy. There aren’t blood in the streets yet. I think if you bought the S&P 500 a few years ago and sold today it would probably be close to a gain. I don’t have the charts in front of me, but that’s basically correct.

The stocks still have a long way to fall.

Even bonds, which normally are your “safe” investments in a portfolio, have seen a decline.

Some short term treasuries were at 0.03% yesterday. Almost getting into negative interest rates (put in $1 million, get $997,000 back type of situation). People would still invest in negative bonds to protect their cash though.
03-18-2020 07:16 PM
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Post: #211
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Stocks have been massively oversold for a while. Even with the massive selloffs and margin calls affecting even precious metals, there's still plenty of more bloodletting to be had. Keep in mind that the worst of the epidemic has yet to hit. The death toll and health care systems aren't all to Italy's status just yet. People haven't lost their homes and fallen behind on the car payments...yet. The overpriced real estate market will certainly crater in the coming months, and savvy investors will snap up many properties from cash-strapped people at an extreme discount.

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03-18-2020 07:20 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #212
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
And what if in 2 weeks from now, there's no uptick in dead bodies?

What if all this drastic stuff we're doing, like shutting down the economy to prevent transmission, WORKS?
03-18-2020 07:24 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #213
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:24 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  And what if in 2 weeks from now, there's no uptick in dead bodies?

What if all this drastic stuff we're doing, like shutting down the economy to prevent transmission, WORKS?

I hope that it does work. Why is that a problem? I do not wish harm on anyone for monetary gain.

There will still be many asymmetric trades, especially in the energy and travel sectors.

Carnival Cruise (CCL) is now at its lowest price since 1996!
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 07:30 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-18-2020 07:29 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #214
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:29 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Carnival Cruise (CCL) is now at its lowest price since 1996!

OK, this is actually a really good metric.
When I'm feeling confident enough to buy CCL, I'm feeling confident enough to buy into the markets.
I'm not confident enough to buy CCL right now, so I'll sit it out.
03-18-2020 07:33 PM
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LeBeau Offline
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Post: #215
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Thoughts on buying LEAPs when we feel like we've hit a bottom?
03-18-2020 07:35 PM
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Post: #216
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:29 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 07:24 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  And what if in 2 weeks from now, there's no uptick in dead bodies?

What if all this drastic stuff we're doing, like shutting down the economy to prevent transmission, WORKS?

I hope that it does work. Why is that a problem? I do not wish harm on anyone for monetary gain.

There will still be many asymmetric trades, especially in the energy and travel sectors.

Carnival Cruise (CCL) is now at its lowest price since 1996!

(03-18-2020 07:35 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  Thoughts on buying LEAPs when we feel like we've hit a bottom?

Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) went from about $60 to about $7. If you think the cruise industry will come back it might be a good buy. It still has more room to fall though. It could also fall to $0 if they go bankrupt.

LeBeau- what would be the advantage of buying LEAPs vs just buying the underlying stock or index? Seems like if you buy at the bottom and ride the wave back up, a generic stock / ETF / mutual fund would be much simpler to navigate.
03-18-2020 08:02 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #217
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:35 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  Thoughts on buying LEAPs when we feel like we've hit a bottom?

You really need to know what you are doing. There are many landmines. LEAPS do not necessarily act as you might expect when you buy at a bottom. Do your research on LEAPs now, while you still have the time to analyze whether they are for you.

One of the great ironies of life is that while a market bottom looks like a great time to buy LEAPS, it is also a terrible time to buy LEAPs because the increased volatility stemming from the panic that caused the market bottom dramatically increases the price of LEAPs.

Quote:Yes, the theta (daily time decay) is less for options farther out in time, but much of the value of the individual LEAPS option is determined by its recent and expected volatility.

The higher the implied volatility, the more you'll pay to buy LEAPS. That's also one reason why the bid-ask spread can be so wide. Pricing the expected volatility of something up to 2 1/2 years away is more crapshoot than science.

* * *

A similar dynamic occurs with LEAPS. In a typical value investing mindset, it would seem that the best time to purchase a LEAP is after the underlying security has already fallen substantially in price. But if the stock has recently fallen substantially, then its corresponding implied volatility will most likely have risen. Consequently, the option is more expensive to purchase.

https://www.great-option-trading-strateg...leaps.html
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 08:17 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-18-2020 08:15 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #218
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
To reach capitulation, I think we may need to see an insane day or two, for lack of a better term. I'm thinking something like down 3000 or even more in a single day on the DOW. The psyche of the FANG bottom buyers needs to be broken. People will be convinced it's the second coming and probably won't even be asking about buying LEAPs or anything else, at that point.

Once we get a hell day like that (or two) then, we could have a (temporary) bottom. I could see a 20% + technical bounce then. But this is not going to be some bottom and then, it's like, "whew, glad we got that bottom out of the way, now I'll just get in and enjoy higher prices going forward"

I doubt that. Most likely it will be a 'bottom' that occurs after the capitulation sell-off I mentioned above, then a technical bounce, then as everyone starts to get a little complacent and giddy again, it will roll back over and, potentially break everyone's spirits.

At the very least, severe technical damage has been done and this is going to take many months or, maybe longer, to carve out a bottom and work off.

As I've read more and more lately, and listened to some long-term , top stock trader veterans, I'm leaning toward this being a longer term situation/ bear market and possibly, even a global depression. A few days ago, I posted in this thread that I was 50/50 this was a cyclical bear within a secular bull vs. a long term recession/bear market and possibly recession. Now, I'm something like 45/55 in favor of the latter.

In Howe and Strauss' "The Fourth Turning", which was written in 1997, they explain how there are '4 turnings' that occur over, about an 80 year period, throughout American history. There's obviously many reasons and patterns which this has occurred going back to the early 1700s in America but I'm not going to cliff notes the book.

Basically, they predicted this 4th turning, which is the chaotic phase where things fully come apart, would start around 2005, give or take several years, and last about 20 years. Well, it did begin, in 2008 with the Great Recession and financial crisis and also, the election of Obama. This coronavirus situation, which is occurring about halfway through this 20 year 'winter' is an intensification of this 4th turning. I watched an interview with one of the authors today, which was about 4 years old. He was discussing how we are in this turning that was predicted in the '97 book, how 2008 was the beginning of it, and how the economy needs to go through a full deleveraging (which it did not do in 2008-09 due to the bailouts) and complete washout of the economy in order for this phase to fully manifest, as it has done so in previous 4th turnings throughout history. For what it's worth, after this last phase, the book explains, American history enters a "spring" period and back to a new 1st turning.

One thing he said in the interview, which again was several years old, that I found interesting was, I'm paraphrasing ' there may some pin that pricks the economy in a few years that will finally burst this economy, all this debt that has been propped up and send it all into the full deleveraging that must occur' It sounds like he was predicting this coronavirus situation that may end up being just that pin.

But it's not just the book that is leaning me toward the long term bear market/deep recession/ possible depression scenario. For one, this market has been oversold a while. When a market fails to rally, AT ALL, for more than, like one day at most, from deeply oversold conditions, that's an ominous sign. Secondly, from a loss, and intensity of loss standpoint, this is already worse than 1987. It's more akin to the beginnings of the 1929 crash. I could go into many more fundamental flaws such as how this system has been propped up with multiple rounds of QE since 2008, how bonds have been in a bull market since the 80s and it's time for the bond bubble to pop, etc.

I'm willing, and hoping to be proven wrong on all of this. A long term recession, much less a depression, does no one any good.

A Man has free choice to the extent that he is rational - St. Aquinas
03-18-2020 10:47 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
dupe

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(This post was last modified: 03-18-2020 10:48 PM by robreke.)
03-18-2020 10:48 PM
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Post: #220
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 07:10 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Nope. Definitely not "buy" time. But you nailed the approximate buy time when you asked "how much more absolutely insane can people get?"

My personal plan for my own portfolio is to wait until the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases begins to peak. That will likely be the time of peak panic.

Exactly what my plan was as well. Keep looking at the cases count and as long as the number of new cases is a good chunk higher than the previous day's count then continue to sit out.
03-18-2020 10:51 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^^ Agree Totally. My question is whether we will have a crash or the whole financial system will breakdown.

Are we going into hyperinflation or stagflation, I'm not sure.

Negative interest Rates?

Will the Fed start buying the Stock market?

It seems we are almost there. My hope is that there is enough of a bounce that I will be ready when it fully happens.

Societally, we can see that most people (myself included) are wrapped up into service jobs etc.

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools. Rom 1:22
03-18-2020 10:56 PM
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Post: #222
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 10:56 PM)NoMoreTO Wrote:  ^^ Agree Totally. My question is whether we will have a crash or the whole financial system will breakdown.

Are we going into hyperinflation or stagflation, I'm not sure.

Negative interest Rates?

Will the Fed start buying the Stock market?

It seems we are almost there. My hope is that there is enough of a bounce that I will be ready when it fully happens.

Societally, we can see that most people (myself included) are wrapped up into service jobs etc.

It looks like the one month T-Bill and three month T-bill are negative interest rates as of yesterday.
03-19-2020 08:33 AM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 05:34 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Schiff on a Tear:

Peter Schiff: The Real Crash Is Here




I tuned into this guy for a couple hours last night. He really gets me in a depression doom and gloom mindset. I hope he's wrong but I just agree with him fundamentally that the chickens of printing all this money, and the US being a borrower rather than a lender have to come home to roost.

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools. Rom 1:22
03-19-2020 08:52 AM
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Post: #224
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Federal government processed 59,000 as of yesterday (Wednesday, March 18, 2020; midday EDT)

At the 34:15 mark in the video:
"Can I ask about the test, sir, for a second? If federal officials have shipped millions of tests, as you and your colleagues have said, why, as the federal government says, have only 59,000 tests been processed to this point? We just heard from the Atlanta Public Health director saying that they have fewer than 50 test kits for more than 900,000 citizens. Where are the tests?"

President Trump and Coronavirus Task Force Brief Reporters:
[video]
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470459-1/p...start=2055
[/video]
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2020 10:03 AM by EvanWilson.)
03-19-2020 09:58 AM
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Post: #225
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-18-2020 10:51 PM)username Wrote:  
(03-18-2020 07:10 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Nope. Definitely not "buy" time. But you nailed the approximate buy time when you asked "how much more absolutely insane can people get?"

My personal plan for my own portfolio is to wait until the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases begins to peak. That will likely be the time of peak panic.

Exactly what my plan was as well. Keep looking at the cases count and as long as the number of new cases is a good chunk higher than the previous day's count then continue to sit out.

My thinking mirrored the above at first, but then I doubted my initial thoughts. All of the hardcore quarantine efforts currently underway will hopefully stop the spread, but even if new cases/deaths peak soon (let's pray they do!), as soon as restrictions are lifted, secondary outbreaks are sure to follow. China is lying through its teeth about "no new cases". It is impossible to have such a massive pandemic, even with draconian measures and not have secondary flair-ups. People do not obey quarantine, surfaces are still contaminated, travelers are still out there. Trying to call the market bottom based upon numbers of new cases/deaths peaking/declining might prove to be a dead cat bounce recovery as soon as any sizable secondary flair-up follows. Be careful about market re-entry.

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03-19-2020 10:04 AM
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