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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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gework Offline
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Post: #176
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^ I think that's the way it's going to go. It's hard to see a bounce, but it must come.

[Image: Screenshot-at-2020-03-15-16-04-27.png]

I see the entry around mid 2022, or mid 2021 if it's a severe drop. At about 1,000 on The S&P500.

You need to have strong hands if you're buying here.

Silver has hit lows not seen since 2009. Gold will likely follow.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
03-16-2020 11:21 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Post: #177
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The economy shitting the bed and coughing its guts up whilst the FED pushes hundreds of billions/low trillions into the market as QE on top of repo operations and rate cuts is not a sign of bad times for some people?

I'm not sure if that is over confidence with the glass half full thinking or you are not taking into account the fast moving events around us.

Entire industry's are getting bail outs all over the world and they are laying people off in their thousands, people not spending, major events cancelled or mothballed, quarantines...do I need to continue?

This is uncharted territory for everyone.

I also need to remind you guys the corporate bubble has a lot of companies which could go junk bond status - thats trillions of dollars. Kudlow wants to put 800 billion more into the economy as QE today as well, on top of whats come before this sunday.

The people are getting spooked and they may not believe the FED has the answers.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 01:02 PM by Foolsgo1d.)
03-16-2020 01:00 PM
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Roosh Offline
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Post: #178
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread


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03-16-2020 01:27 PM
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RexImperator Offline
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Post: #179
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Almost at DOW JONES INDEX 20,000

Bella, horrida bella
et Thybrim multo spumantem sanguine cerno
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 02:56 PM by RexImperator.)
03-16-2020 02:55 PM
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Post: #180
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Every American company on the Dow Jones 30 actively promotes abortion and/or LGBT activism so I don’t really care if they lose money for a while. If you don’t believe me, enter their stock symbols on the Inspire Insight website and look what comes up. Christians shouldn’t be investing in the Dow in the first place, since those companies use your money to sponsor pride parades and other such things.

Jewish convert to Orthodox Christianity and best-selling author of "On The Masons And Their Lies."
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 03:03 PM by MichaelWitcoff.)
03-16-2020 03:03 PM
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gework Offline
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Post: #181
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The markets have already priced in the economic disruption of the virus. According to JP Morgan analysts we could be looking at 1% contraction in The US and Europe, based on the current trajectory.

Given that the economy is slowing, people are sitting on dollars and running out of foreign currencies and into the USD. Money velocity is going to go down, which means they need to print more money and put it into circulation to stave off deflation.

During The Great Depression money velocity fell by about 27%:

[Image: 021312-02.jpg]

The money supply shrank:

[Image: Money_supply_during_the_great_depression_era.png]

Leading to the dollar appreciating:

[Image: Rise-and-Fall-of-the-USD-688d.jpg]

i.e. deflation (money appreciates against goods).

During The Great Depression money depreciated at about 10% per year, which cripples the economy more than inflation.

The Fed needs to print here and they will print and push enough money into circulation as to maintain about 3% inflation.

Most of the money printing will not come into circulation. It's going to be for repo. They've thrown about 1 day's volume into repo. It's nothing. And they'll print more to prop up stocks and bonds. It's not going to blow anything up.

The Bank of Japan has been buying stocks since 2010 and now owns about half do Japanese stocks and government bonds.

[Image: https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com...fHTfvUmUjA]

This game can continue until the Japanese reach a debt fatigue.

The US has far more string to play with.

The big issue is the virus slowdown exposing weaknesses in the credit markets. The Fed can paper over a lot of debts. But foreign USD denominated corporate bonds total about $20 trillion. Some of those are now having to pay up to about 20% more in the local currency to service their debt. And The Fed can't save these.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 03:41 PM by gework.)
03-16-2020 03:30 PM
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Koolking Offline
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Post: #182
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
My experience over the years is that the market changes direction when it's least expected. If the early market points upward, I'll stay on the sidelines, if it goes down I'm going all in - no margin buying though. If I'm wrong, my kids will inherit stock instead of cash.
03-16-2020 05:02 PM
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Post: #183
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
So we've got a close repeat of the Spanish flu about ~100 years later.
Soon to be a close repeat of the Great Depression about ~100 years later.

These folk need to stop doing reboots...

Oh well, I guess when the WW2 reboot happens - WW4, I'll be to old to bother.
03-16-2020 06:00 PM
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Emancipator Offline
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Post: #184
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 06:00 PM)CynicalContrarian Wrote:  So we've got a close repeat of the Spanish flu about ~100 years later.
Soon to be a close repeat of the Great Depression about ~100 years later.

These folk need to stop doing reboots...

Oh well, I guess when the WW2 reboot happens - WW4, I'll be to old to bother.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme”

Mother Nature is a bitch & Father Time has an undefeated record
"If you watch cinderella backwards, its about a woman who learns her place." --Kbell

demographics is destiny
03-16-2020 07:05 PM
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Post: #185
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I heard something on the radio today that the fed reduced reserve requirement down from 10% for some smaller banks in January.

As much as any historical event is historical, the feds and the bankers need to be watched closely, their hands are in so much, whether they start things or are just opportunists.

Quote: March 15, 2020, the Fed announced it had reduced the reserve requirement ratio to zero effective March 26, 2020.1 It did so to encourage banks to lend out all of their funds during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Reserve Requirement Now 0%

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools. Rom 1:22
03-16-2020 07:41 PM
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Post: #186
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 07:41 PM)NoMoreTO Wrote:  I heard something on the radio today that the fed reduced reserve requirement down from 10% for some smaller banks in January.

As much as any historical event is historical, the feds and the bankers need to be watched closely, their hands are in so much, whether they start things or are just opportunists.

Quote: March 15, 2020, the Fed announced it had reduced the reserve requirement ratio to zero effective March 26, 2020.1 It did so to encourage banks to lend out all of their funds during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Reserve Requirement Now 0%

I am really tempted to say: "Now we've seen everything!" But I'll bet that we haven't. Not with those economic lunatics in charge.
___________

On another topic, I thought that this was an interesting observation:

Quote:This is an economic/investment letter, so when should we think about getting back into the market? Consider this chart from Gavekal, which again came this morning. It shows Chinese equities bottomed when daily new COVID-19 cases peaked.

* * *

My personal plan for my own portfolio, other than the private funds that I own, is to wait until the number of US COVID-19 cases begins to peak, as I believe that will probably be the time of peak panic, and then I will get back into the market.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontli...pter-money
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 08:03 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-16-2020 08:01 PM
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Post: #187
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Whatever the Fed and the banks may be up to, one thing is certain: when all of this is over and things go back to normal, the richer will be richer and we’ll have fewer rights.

Jewish convert to Orthodox Christianity and best-selling author of "On The Masons And Their Lies."
03-16-2020 08:06 PM
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Roosh Offline
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Post: #188
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 08:06 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  Whatever the Fed and the banks may be up to, one thing is certain: when all of this is over and things go back to normal, the richer will be richer and we’ll have fewer rights.

Unless the whole system collapses and the rich are hunted down for their toilet paper. Though if we get to that stage, we'll have bigger problems to worry about.

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03-16-2020 08:21 PM
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Roosh Offline
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Post: #189
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread

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03-16-2020 08:31 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #190
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I've been in investment management for a while now. Fortunately, due to some models and signals that I use, we moved most clients to defensive/conservative allocations a little over 2 weeks ago. we didn't sell at the top by any means, but only caught, for the most part, the very first week of the decline. The vicious slide after that was averted (moving from "balanced" or growth portfolios to mostly money market or allocated bond portfolios, sometimes with a small exposure to stocks but well below their initial exposure)

I think complacency is still too calm. We need real panic to put in a bottom. Panic in terms of the "FANG" stock bottom-buyer types can't handle it anymore. To the point where they're like, "screw this, I "bought the dip " way too early and am now down 40% on Microsoft, when will this hell end?"

There's still too many investors with the "buy the dip" mentality. I'm surprised, even how many seasoned investors will think they're so calmly and in a detached fashion, buying the dip at "bargain" prices, when the correction (in this case bear market) has only begun to play itself out.

After the first week of this correction (around the first part of March) some senior guys at my office, sent out an email saying "this isn't a market call...but look at these prices now. MSFT is down 12% from highs, AAPL is down about 10%, etc etc" as if they were some evident great buys and bargains just because they were down a little. I'm thinking to myself 'my long term model indicator is rolling over to a sell. this thing is probably just beginning, and you guys are talking about catching a falling knife. No thanks for me and my clients" Needless to say, those stocks have gotten creamed since then.

Once guys like that, from a psychological standpoint, are pretty much pulverized into submission and throwing in the towel, then, you can probably step in and "buy the dip" Complacency will be no longer at calm levels.

All that said, I'm not convinced, at this point, that this is still "the big one" and going to be a reset of the system where it will take 5, 10, 20 years to recover, like many pundits and posters here are saying. The market was not impressed with the new QE and stimulus measures today, no. But, these are almost unprecedented levels of liquidity and stimulus. It's ALOT of money. The cornonavirus is basically a weight on top of a coiled spring. That spring is all the liquidity, QE and money that's being strategically injected into the system. Once this plays out, over a few months, there's a good chance that weight will eventually be lifted and we'll come roaring back, big time. This may just end up being a cyclical bear market within a secular bull, that for now, is still in tact.

That's my 50/50 scenario. A cyclical bear as explained above, or , infection cases, deaths and the blow to the economy are just so much going forward that it turns into a long term recession or even depression. I'm hoping for the former.

A Man has free choice to the extent that he is rational - St. Aquinas
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 10:00 PM by robreke.)
03-16-2020 09:07 PM
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Post: #191
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
People get accustomed to buying the dip' and winning. Imagine you buy 5 dips before you jump in on a dip and get slaughtered.

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools. Rom 1:22
03-16-2020 09:38 PM
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Post: #192
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Quote:All that said, I'm not convinced, at this point, that this is still "the big one" and going to be a reset of the system where it will take 5, 10, 20 years to recover, like many pundits and posters here are saying. he market was not impressed with the new QE and stimulus measures today, no. But, these are almost unprecedented levels of liquidity and stimulus. It's ALOT of money. The cornonavirus is basically a weight on top of a coiled spring. That spring is all the liquidity, QE and money that's being strategically injected into the system. Once this plays out, over a few months, there's a good chance that weight will eventually be lifted and we'll come roaring back, big time. This may just end up being a cyclical bear market within a secular bull, that for now, is still in tact.

Doesn't matter if the "market" comes back after the Chinese virus goes away. The real economy, with people's jobs and wages, will be broken for a very long time. Old supply chains are gone and are not coming back. Entire industries will need to be rebuilt from scratch. It's going to be a very long time before this happens. Sorry for people who just want this to be over with, but the kind of damage we are suffering right now is permanent.

Right now we are still in the "denial" stage, acceptence will come after the Dow sinks below 17K methinks. Then everyone throws in the towel. Once the market "recovers" from the huge inflation caused by printing 10+ trillion dollars (which is where we are headed before this crisis is over, probably going to print much more), the real economy's problems can start to be addressed which will massive. Stocks may soar up but the purchasing power of the dollar will be trashed forever, and the old model of sweatshop labor in the 3rd world to sell in the 1st world will be gone.

Globalism is dying and may never come back. Just the politcal fallout alone will make free trade extremely unpopular if not impossible in the future. Even Democrats know they cannot go back to the free trade canard without getting destroyed in the general.

Switching from Globalism to Localism will be very painful because we were so accustomed to the old ways. On the plus side, wages are going to skyrocket from inflation, but old people, the welfare class, and other dependents (such as disability) will be driven into extreme poverty as their welfare bucks buy them little.

Contributor at Return of Kings. You can follow me on Gab.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2020 10:11 PM by Samseau.)
03-16-2020 10:10 PM
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Post: #193
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 09:07 PM)robreke Wrote:  All that said, I'm not convinced, at this point, that this is still "the big one" and going to be a reset of the system where it will take 5, 10, 20 years to recover, like many pundits and posters here are saying. The market was not impressed with the new QE and stimulus measures today, no. But, these are almost unprecedented levels of liquidity and stimulus. It's ALOT of money. The cornonavirus is basically a weight on top of a coiled spring. That spring is all the liquidity, QE and money that's being strategically injected into the system. Once this plays out, over a few months, there's a good chance that weight will eventually be lifted and we'll come roaring back, big time. This may just end up being a cyclical bear market within a secular bull, that for now, is still in tact.

I like your analysis, however I think it all hinges on the assumption in the bolded part. This hit my Twitter feed less than an hour ago:


I haven't gone through this report yet, but the takeaway is that we'll be in some form of lockdown mode until a vaccine is developed (18 months or more). If restrictions on movement are relaxed, the virus flares up again.

I think it's significant that Trump mentioned today that this crisis could stretch into July or August. He is constantly overoptimistic, so that tells me he's looking at similar data as the above model and lowballing the time period.

China is a testbed to see what happens when you relax restrictions. But China has advanced testing capabilities, unlimited access to location data to track those infected and AI to analyze it, unfettered authoritarian power, more of collective mentality among its populace, and so forth. If it starts to flare up in China again, that will tell me we really won't be able to get a good handle on things without further prolonged damage.
03-16-2020 10:47 PM
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Post: #194
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The power of authoritarianism is really shining through in this mess. China’s government makes a decision and it’s implemented immediately. Nobody has to vote and fight and argue and debate and lie because they’re in the pockets of their financiers. Authoritarianism can obviously have a negative side to it as well, but crisis response falls squarely on the positive one.

Jewish convert to Orthodox Christianity and best-selling author of "On The Masons And Their Lies."
03-16-2020 11:00 PM
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Post: #195
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Most people forget that most of the "no compromise" libertarianism the US constitution supposedly guarantees US citizens was tossed out the window during the world wars and at other times of lesser threat.

The irony is that society accepted those measures with good grace because they understood that the civil order was more important than individual liberty.

Unfortunately in America today there is a vast body of the citizenry who gather their liberties to themselves under the pretense that they are answerable only to God (or not even to Him) and that society can go to hell if that's what it takes to protect their precious freedoms.

For the record I have lately witnessed this mentality most strongly among the libertarian Right who think this is all a gubbermint plot to take their freedumbs and who are bragging that they're going to shoot the first guy in a hazmat suit they see.

Suffice to say back in the 50's these lunatics who now claim to represent true America would have been run out of town by the commoners who had no interest in some whackjob flaunting quarantine just to prove how free he was.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2020 12:05 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-17-2020 12:04 AM
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Post: #196
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-16-2020 10:47 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  I like your analysis, however I think it all hinges on the assumption in the bolded part. This hit my Twitter feed less than an hour ago:


I haven't gone through this report yet, but the takeaway is that we'll be in some form of lockdown mode until a vaccine is developed (18 months or more). If restrictions on movement are relaxed, the virus flares up again.

I love Scott and have recommended him in the past, but a couple words of caution about this study:

1.) Computer models of poorly understood phenomena are, always and everywhere, utter shit. It's hard to think of something more non-linear than a planetwide response to an unknown pathogen, the number of actors is literally in the billions. Hell, if you want to include the rapidly-involving virus, it's in the trillions.
2.) There's no reason to believe Trump has access to any better information than we do, his people are getting the raw data from the same sources we are.
3.) There's now a heavy incentive by doctors, modelers, etc. to OVERSTATE the crisis. With bodies piling up in Italy, toilet paper running out, etc. nobody wants to take the risk of saying, "This is overblown and will pass in a few weeks." So models that show world-ending doom will get published and promoted, while models that say "This will blow over in a few weeks" will get shelved and ignored. This is, obviously, a severe flip from just a few weeks ago, but it's very observable if you look at the online discourse. Italy scared the living shit out of people, and nobody wants to take the chance of what happened there happening in their hometown.

At this point, from an investment strategy, "I don't know what the fuck is going to happen and neither does anybody else" is the proper take, I think. So much depends on how long this quarantine and lockdown lasts. If we're up and running in two-three weeks, which hell, we might be (SK managed to get this shit under control pretty rapidly) then it'll all fade away as a bad memory and the party's on for summer. If it drags on for six months, expect a crippling, multi-year depression or possibly a wholesale social revolution.

There's just no way to know right now.
03-17-2020 01:13 AM
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Post: #197
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Another note on that Imperial College study: It appears to have been made with the goal of dissuading the UK government from its "Do nothing and let herd immunity take hold" strategy. It was crafted with a very specific goal in mind: to make things look as bad as possible so the government would implement restrictions instead of letting the disease run unchecked throughout the population.

Now, I happen to think that letting the disease run unchecked throughout the population was stupid, and Imperial College was right to try and dissuade the UK government. But it does mean that you should take what it says with a grain of salt.
03-17-2020 02:55 AM
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Post: #198
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-17-2020 01:13 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(03-16-2020 10:47 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  I like your analysis, however I think it all hinges on the assumption in the bolded part. This hit my Twitter feed less than an hour ago:


I haven't gone through this report yet, but the takeaway is that we'll be in some form of lockdown mode until a vaccine is developed (18 months or more). If restrictions on movement are relaxed, the virus flares up again.

I love Scott and have recommended him in the past, but a couple words of caution about this study:

1.) Computer models of poorly understood phenomena are, always and everywhere, utter shit. It's hard to think of something more non-linear than a planetwide response to an unknown pathogen, the number of actors is literally in the billions. Hell, if you want to include the rapidly-involving virus, it's in the trillions.
2.) There's no reason to believe Trump has access to any better information than we do, his people are getting the raw data from the same sources we are.
3.) There's now a heavy incentive by doctors, modelers, etc. to OVERSTATE the crisis. With bodies piling up in Italy, toilet paper running out, etc. nobody wants to take the risk of saying, "This is overblown and will pass in a few weeks." So models that show world-ending doom will get published and promoted, while models that say "This will blow over in a few weeks" will get shelved and ignored. This is, obviously, a severe flip from just a few weeks ago, but it's very observable if you look at the online discourse. Italy scared the living shit out of people, and nobody wants to take the chance of what happened there happening in their hometown.

At this point, from an investment strategy, "I don't know what the fuck is going to happen and neither does anybody else" is the proper take, I think. So much depends on how long this quarantine and lockdown lasts. If we're up and running in two-three weeks, which hell, we might be (SK managed to get this shit under control pretty rapidly) then it'll all fade away as a bad memory and the party's on for summer. If it drags on for six months, expect a crippling, multi-year depression or possibly a wholesale social revolution.

There's just no way to know right now.

Yes, all the people under self-quarantine right now or sidelined are ready and waiting to get right back to work as soon as it looks like things are under control. That could be two weeks, two months, or six months.

In the meantime, about once or twice a month I will rebalance my portfolios in my IRA and 401k plan (both accounts restrict transactions to two a month). That will prevent me from having any capital gains taxes, but it will also prevent me from taking the tax deduction for any losses. That's fine. Since timing the market is extremely difficult I think that's the best I can do to take advantage of the current sale on stocks. I've been thinking of converting my IRA from a traditional to a Roth, and perhaps this year might be a good time to do it because the decline in stock value will decrease the tax bill from the conversion.

Following the usual plan of reallocating has worked out for me as I get closer to retirement (10 more years). In early January, per my plan, I sold 3% of the stock in my 401k plan and moved the money into bonds and money market, which means I sold near the market high. Three percent may not sound like much, but I've been putting the max allowed (approx. $20k annually) into my 401k for almost 25 years, so you can probably accurately guess how much is in there, factoring in market increases and compounded interest and dividends. Next year in January, I'll move another 3%, and so on until I hit retirement age and my investments will be about 70-30 bonds to stocks. I know tons of money can be made with astute puts and short selling, but I just don't have the confidence that I can time the market well enough to get into that.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2020 07:50 AM by C-Note.)
03-17-2020 07:39 AM
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joost Offline
Kingfisher
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Posts: 583
Joined: Oct 2015
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Post: #199
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Helicopter Money:


Trump team prepares rescue package of at least $800 billion
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16...age-132369
03-17-2020 10:57 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Posts: 7,136
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Post: #200
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Unlimited $$$/££/Euros coming soon to a big CORP near you.

If this fails to keep the market afloat then you're going to see some real big stuff happening.

But dont worry, many Americans will still look on in disgust if you even mention assisted socialised medical costs for those people struggling.

[Image: ETVEACtUUAMnoXJ?format=jpg&name=900x900]
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2020 03:01 PM by Foolsgo1d.)
03-17-2020 03:00 PM
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It_is_my_time, Leonard D Neubache, , Samseau
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