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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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Bitter End Offline
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Post: #126
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Long story short the banks don't keep reserves, gold or anything worthwhile. Have not done since the Bretton Woods system. The actual printed notes are less than 3% of the total money supply. The rest is digital and it is backed by thin air. This is how the purchasing power of the dollar has been evaporated in the past decades.

When you open an account they just write the digits on a computer screen, but if everybody withdrew all their accounts tomorrow the system would collapse globally within hours.
03-13-2020 11:50 AM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #127
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 11:18 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 10:51 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  The funny thing about bear markets is that there is actually plenty of time to react.

The time for acting is long over. Any viable exit plan would have gotten a prudent investor out of the market by now (unless they are hedging).

This is the initial correction. Every market (bull or bear) is made up of a trend. Even during nasty long bars down like this on the weekly there will be a more clear and concise picture in the next few months. If it is going down further there will be a bump (recovery period) and the next wave down. The real money is on the other waves down (or up.) A real bear market is going to last quite awhile.

People rarely catch the initial wave in any market. There's always people who think that's it and there's nothing that can be done and they missed it.
03-13-2020 11:58 AM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Post: #128
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
This is not 08. We have had many years of low to 0% interest rates with banks and financial institutions going into riskier areas to get profit and the banks have sacked tens of thousands (possibly hundreds of thousands now) over the years along with increasing fees and other hits to the customer.

The FED was already buying stocks as they have a trading desk, look it all up. They were also doing repos since late August/early September and that has only increased. It is more than 6 trillion now since that time and its getting to the point where the central banks are becoming the lenders and buyers of last resort. That removes all sorts of risk from the system does it not?

If the CBs can print their way to infinity who pays that money back? Do economics no longer matter anymore when a third party is there to rescue you from your poor profits and poor stock numbers?

The wu-flu is just the pin that pricked the bubble, but it is not responsible for the past 11 years of reckless behaviour by everyone involved with the financial markets. Trump is also throwing out negative interest rates so who here wants to pay the banks to store their money?
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 01:24 PM by Foolsgo1d.)
03-13-2020 01:23 PM
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jeffreyjerpp Offline
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Post: #129
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
This decline is totally unprecedented in terms of it's speed. We have fallen further and faster than almost any other financial event on record. Take a look (apologies for massive image):

[Image: ES-95r8XkAA5njk?format=png&name=900x900]
03-13-2020 01:58 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #130
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 11:58 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 11:18 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 10:51 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  The funny thing about bear markets is that there is actually plenty of time to react.

The time for acting is long over. Any viable exit plan would have gotten a prudent investor out of the market by now (unless they are hedging).

This is the initial correction. Every market (bull or bear) is made up of a trend. Even during nasty long bars down like this on the weekly there will be a more clear and concise picture in the next few months. If it is going down further there will be a bump (recovery period) and the next wave down. The real money is on the other waves down (or up.) A real bear market is going to last quite awhile.

People rarely catch the initial wave in any market. There's always people who think that's it and there's nothing that can be done and they missed it.

I guess you totally misunderstood me. After doing some calculations, I just noticed that jeffreyjerpp has already made my point. His graphic is devastatingly stark and poignant.

I did some quick calculations. In 2007-2008, it took about a year for the DJIA to shed 25% of its value. We just saw that happen to the DJIA in a matter of weeks. So no, you do not have plenty of time to react. It has already mostly happened.

At this point, once the market bottoms, hope for a V-shaped recovery versus the typical long, drawn-out recovery.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 02:36 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-13-2020 02:29 PM
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jordypip23 Offline
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Post: #131
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 01:58 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  This decline is totally unprecedented in terms of it's speed. We have fallen further and faster than almost any other financial event on record. Take a look (apologies for massive image):

[Image: ES-95r8XkAA5njk?format=png&name=900x900]

Just checked the BTC to USD exchange rate & sure enough it seems to be crashing as well. $5,131.46 USD per 1 BTC.
03-13-2020 02:31 PM
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Sherman Offline
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Post: #132
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

Rico... Sauve....
03-13-2020 02:38 PM
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RoastBeefCurtains4Me Offline
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Post: #133
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Dow Jones up 2000 for the day right now, at 23,185.62. Seems there's still a little optimism in the market.

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03-13-2020 03:19 PM
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jeffreyjerpp Offline
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Post: #134
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 02:38 PM)Sherman Wrote:  If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

Two groups of people:

1) Frightened dumb people who are selling their retirement accounts at a loss

2) Smart rich people buying those highly discounted stocks:

"Those asking who is "buying while there's blood in the streets" over the last couple months may very well have their answer: corporate insiders.

While we are still waiting for the first big activist to take a swing - or the first signs of large M&A that can sometimes come with selloffs, there's one group of people that aren't waiting to pull the trigger.

Executives are hitting the clearance rack and buying shares of their own companies at what Bloomberg calls a "breakneck" pace during the first couple of weeks of March. The total purchased has exceeded the last two months combined and insider buys are outpacing sales by the most since 2011."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside...virus-sell
03-13-2020 03:26 PM
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gework Offline
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Post: #135
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 03:19 PM)RoastBeefCurtains4Me Wrote:  Dow Jones up 2000 for the day right now, at 23,185.62. Seems there's still a little optimism in the market.

From what I am seeing the consensus of whales is to jump back in soon...

Cash-Rich Billionaire Hargreaves Jumps Back Into Market

Quote:Peter Hargreaves likes to say that timing the market is pure luck. He’s had a good dose of that this year.

The Hargreaves Lansdown Plc founder sold 550 million pounds ($711 million) of shares at the start of February, weeks before markets tumbled on anxiety over the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.

“By hell, the timing was just phenomenal,” Hargreaves, 73, said in a phone interview Friday.

The British billionaire is now sitting on a pile of cash. He’s invested about 110 million pounds of the proceeds into Treasuries to pay the upcoming capital gains tax bill, and says he’s starting to reinvest some of the balance -- mainly in U.K. and U.S. assets.

“Myself and my son are quite keen to put this money in the market,” he said on Friday. “I think it’s not far off the bottom now. We’re watching the ticker tape.”

Last week he sent a message to investors noting the investing challenge of his current position.

“I have seen investors wait years trying to time their re-entry,” he wrote. “Following my recent share sale, I find myself in this situation right now -- it’s not an agreeable place! Will I miss the rise? Will I buy too soon? Is today’s bounce the start of recovery or a false dawn? I shall probably procrastinate, but I don’t expect sympathy.”

Hargreaves says he directs his investments through the online investment platform that made him a billionaire. About 66% of his net worth remains tied up in the shares of his company.

He still owns about a quarter of the firm and the stock wipeout has erased about $1 billion from his net worth since the February sale, leaving him with $2.9 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He expects markets -- and his fortune -- to bounce back.

“When people start to relax about it the markets will go up very, very rapidly indeed,” he said. “It strikes me that you would make money if you put your money in the market now.”

Even as he’s calling the bottom, Hargreaves admits he’s rarely seen such nervousness in markets.

“It’s worse than 9/11,” he said. “9/11 frightened Americans to death. But this has frightened the world to death.”

This from Mini-Mike News.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
03-13-2020 03:56 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #136
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 02:38 PM)Sherman Wrote:  If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

The DJIA rose 1,500 points in the last 30 minutes of trading. That is really odd.

I wonder if the Fed is buying securities. Such rumors have floated for awhile. Yet another reason why I would never short the markets. There is simply too much government manipulation occurring.
03-13-2020 05:02 PM
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Caduceus Offline
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Post: #137
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 05:02 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 02:38 PM)Sherman Wrote:  If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

The DJIA rose 1,500 points in the last 30 minutes of trading. That is really odd.

I wonder if the Fed is buying securities. Such rumors have floated for awhile. Yet another reason why I would never short the markets. There is simply too much government manipulation occurring.


Gold is down to 1,530 US Dollars per troy ounce today. Just a week ago it had hit around 1,700 per troy ounce. That's a drop of over 170 dollars in about a week.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 05:21 PM by Caduceus.)
03-13-2020 05:19 PM
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Captain Gh Offline
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Post: #138
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 11:43 AM)JiggyLordJr Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:51 AM)rotekz Wrote:  

Can someone please explain this - the explanation provided is wishy-washy at best.

Where is this money actually coming from?

I know it's long... but do yourself a favor... and watch this documentary about How This $$$ Game Truly works! All your questions will easily be answered!



(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 05:21 PM by Captain Gh.)
03-13-2020 05:20 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 05:19 PM)Caduceus Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 05:02 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 02:38 PM)Sherman Wrote:  If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

The DJIA rose 1,500 points in the last 30 minutes of trading. That is really odd.

I wonder if the Fed is buying securities. Such rumors have floated for awhile. Yet another reason why I would never short the markets. There is simply too much government manipulation occurring.


Gold is down to 1,530 US Dollars per troy ounce today. Just a week ago it had hit around 1,700 per troy ounce. That's a drop of over 170 dollars in about a week.

Gold actually held up rather well compared to other precious metals. The decline in the price of gold is nothing compared to the decline in the price of silver and platinum. Platinum has not been this cheap since 2003! Factoring in 17 years of inflation, platinum is even cheaper than in 2003.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/platinum...lars-ounce
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 05:31 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-13-2020 05:30 PM
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Post: #140
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Been long SGOL (similar to GLD) for a while now. Took a bit of a hit due to the market selloff which included gold. I have a feeling that fair amount of gold selloff is due to covering margin calls. When equities are shedding massive double-digit numbers in a single day, over-leveraged investors have to pony up somehow. I do believe gold still has room to the upside (maybe not as much as huge gold bugs that say it will go to the moon), given all the uncertainty out there not going away soon. Hopefully, the worst of the margin calls are over so it can take a swing to the upside.

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03-13-2020 05:31 PM
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kel Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I've heard good things about this doc, too, re: the fed:



03-13-2020 05:31 PM
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Roosh Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread

Roosh
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03-13-2020 07:29 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Trump just announced the suspension of interest for student loans.

Related:

Code:
https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2020/03/12/coronavirus-could-have-long-term-impact-state-funding-universities-opinion

Quote:Coronavirus Could Cause a Long-Term Higher Ed Crisis
Years of budget cuts and failure to address basic student needs make higher education potentially unequipped to deal with a crisis like this, Mark Huelsman warns.

By Mark Huelsman
March 12, 2020
7 COMMENTS


ISTOCKPHOTO.COM/ERHUI1979
The impact of the coronavirus epidemic on higher education has been swift. The outbreak has already upended conference schedules and athletic events, and institutions have begun to cancel classes and move them online. It is forcing colleges to consider large-scale preventative measures to keep students and faculty healthy, as well as to create plans for when infections do materialize on their campus. Institutions are also grappling with the impact on exchange programs and international students. Colleges and universities will continue to have to deal with these and a series of other deep and complex challenges in the near term.

The real danger, however, may be lurking in the long-term fallout from the epidemic. Years of budget cuts and the failure to address basic student needs make higher education particularly vulnerable and potentially unequipped to deal with a crisis like this. It’s crucial that the U.S. Congress and the Department of Education act swiftly and aggressively and provide states and institutions with much-needed support before it’s too late.

The first, and clearest, long-term impact of the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to be on state budgets. Whether coronavirus brings about a long-term, deep recession domestically remains unclear, but it is sure to have an effect on economic growth. And slower growth portends terrible things for state colleges and universities, especially community colleges. Nearly a decade into the economic recovery, per-student state funding is still below pre-recession levels. In fact, in states like Arizona, per-student funding has been cut more than 40 percent since the Great Recession. If something caused a prolonged slowdown, it would have the usual devastating consequences on public higher education budgets -- yet today, on top of that, many states and systems have fewer resources to start with than they did a decade or so ago. A global epidemic, coupled with a continued decline in international enrollments, could throw some university systems’ entire business models into chaos.

Even absent a recession, colleges and universities will probably face cuts in the next year or two as state money flows away from higher education and toward public health. Like higher education, state public health systems are stretched and, to put it lightly, states are not often in the business of budgeting for global pandemics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s budget for state and local emergency preparedness has been significantly slashed, leading states like New York to appropriate tens of millions of dollars to equip health-care workers and provide needed supplies to patients.

As states direct their resources toward much-needed public health services and away from higher education, it’s incumbent on Congress to act in the short term by providing fiscal support -- some of which can go toward addressing an outbreak, and some of which can go toward backstopping any lost revenue that higher education institutions could have not possibly prepared for. In the long term, we need a robust federal-state partnership that helps states consistently refund public colleges and universities, enabling those institutions to weather recessions and other economic shocks. One could imagine a new partnership that automatically kicks in new funding to state higher education systems when something unexpected like coronavirus threatens to strain budgets.

Moreover, we’re also less prepared today to help students navigate an outbreak. Students may face steep medical bills, upwards of several thousand dollars, that they could have neither expected nor budgeted for, leading them to drop out or take on medical or student debt to cover those expenses. While some states, including New York, have begun to waive fees associated with testing for the coronavirus, it is far from a guarantee that other states or the federal government will do the same. For students, particularly those with high-deductible insurance plans, an unlucky diagnosis could be the difference between staying in college and abandoning their educational dreams.

Finally, the safety net for financially needy students remains threadbare. If campuses close for any amount of time, those without access to campus food pantries and services may not be able to take advantage of programs like SNAP, the new rules of which have already made it more difficult for part-time students to afford food. Similarly, for the significant number of students facing housing insecurity, any disruption to campus housing, or budget cuts that prevent colleges from addressing affordable housing, could leave many with no place to go. And the 3.8 million students with children of their own could be forced to find new childcare arrangements other than at on-campus facilities at a time of high daycare costs.

These issues -- continued underfunding and the lack of a basic safety net for students -- must be dealt with regardless of the current unease around the coronavirus. But this moment is bringing into sharp relief the fact that Congress and states have not prepared us for any kind of financial shock to colleges and universities, states or students. Without an injection of support from Washington, the current situation threatens to go from a short-term logistical nightmare to a disastrous long-term drag on higher education.

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03-13-2020 07:46 PM
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Sherman Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 05:02 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 02:38 PM)Sherman Wrote:  If you want to see the real picture look at the liquidity in the last ten minutes. The liquidity is thin, the spreads are wide, and the price is moving so violently I don't even think a computer algorithm can trade this. I don't even see how it is possible. Who is trading?

The DJIA rose 1,500 points in the last 30 minutes of trading. That is really odd.

I wonder if the Fed is buying securities. Such rumors have floated for awhile. Yet another reason why I would never short the markets. There is simply too much government manipulation occurring.

It is the beginning of a short covering rally which could last for a week or so. May be a good time to buy calls.

Rico... Sauve....
03-13-2020 10:33 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
To the guy asking about how money is made, I was going to say it's blasphemous no one's posted The Creature from Jekyll Island yet by G. Edward Griffin. The book is a must read about the history of The Federal Reserve and central banking. There used to be a documentary on YouTube made from the book which I suspiciously can't find anymore. Unless it's there but just been seriously buried. It was a great film too. Still found a lecture by Griffin, which I haven't watched but I'm assuming it will still give you a good history and economics lesson still.

It's been a long since I've though about this stuff. Maybe someone could correct me it I'm wrong. But one way to break it down in a super nutshell without having to think to much; can't for the life of me remember the banking term. Not Quantitative Easing. But banks can take all their deposits and take that money, punch some digits in a computer somewhere and increase that money by a certain amount to loan out which restricts or expands the money supply which is all regulated by the "Federal" Reserve. It's truly created from nothing. And could very easily end up as nothing..Confused

There's other ways to that I ain't even gonna try to explain right now. That was the easiest. But Griffin goes over it all in laymen's terms.




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03-13-2020 11:45 PM
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Post: #146
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I didn't read the whole thread but are you guys jumping in right now or are you holding off until later?

Some people say we've reach the peak of panic already and things are going to be going up from here. Others are saying the panic hasn't even started yet. Don't know what to believe.
03-13-2020 11:48 PM
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The easiest way to think of the Fed is as a massive counterfeiting operation.
03-14-2020 01:12 AM
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Post: #148
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 05:30 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Platinum has not been this cheap since 2003! Factoring in 17 years of inflation, platinum is even cheaper than in 2003.

Silver and platinum are looking like some of the best buys in the ideal entry window. Another is uranium. The industry overall has shrank about 93% over the last 15 years. I'd also be looking at minerals that are going to be used in devices a lot over the next 10 years. Mineral stocks are doing bad. Sooner or later they are likely to go on a crazy bull run, as they have before. Next entry would be the time to enter.

(03-13-2020 11:48 PM)joseph15 Wrote:  I didn't read the whole thread but are you guys jumping in right now or are you holding off until later?

After reading more about the virus situation I lean towards thinking that it will not be a serious issue. But that depends on how its dealt with. If the data out of China and Korea is correct it's looking like it can be batted back quite quickly. Europe is much laxer about dealing with it though. But it's a long way from challenging other annual deaths form communicable diseases.

[Image: global-deaths-from-communicable-diseases-2010.jpg]

If Europe and The US can handle it as well as China says it has, then it shouldn't be an issue.

An article on CoinTelegraph explain the fall in crypto. There were a lot of people in long positions and they got dumped.

[Image: Screenshot-at-2020-03-14-14-44-06.png]

And there are no beakers on the crypto market. BitMEX (futures) is allegedly among the highest volume platforms. Their price was $300 lower than spot and dragged everyone down.

I've been backing up since $90 ETH. It will probably be slow to recover as a lot of people have been burned. But fear and pain is the time to buy.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
03-14-2020 09:50 AM
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eradicator Offline
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Post: #149
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I started buying on Thursday , will continue to buy over the spring and summer .

I don’t really speculate , I just buy more for the long term

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03-14-2020 10:07 AM
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Post: #150
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Way too much pessimism, stocks will rebound. I have been buying at these levels and have faith this period of market turbulence will pass as it always does.





Below is an OP-ED Warren Buffet wrote during the 2008 bear market in the New York Times.

Quote:The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

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"Chicks dig power, men dig beauty, eggs are expensive, sperm is cheap, men are expendable, women are perishable." - Heartiste
03-14-2020 01:37 PM
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