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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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gework Offline
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Post: #101
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-12-2020 04:07 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Gold price is down about 4% today from what I see.

Year to date, Schiff's recommendations to sell US stocks, bonds and crypto to buy gold look pretty good so far:

GLD: +2.5%...

I think crypto has added vulnerability in this environment due to its dependency on a bunch of shady undercapitalized, interconnected exchanges. Also to Schiff's point, if crypto isn't a medium of exchange, and it isn't a store of value, what good is it exactly? The whole narrative has fallen apart.

The 10% is down from it's recent high at about $1,725.

I ended up loosing about 50% following Peter's endless calls to buy gold. This was back in about 2011 or 2012. I eventually cashed out for extra fuel in the 2017 crypto bubble that Peter said to avoid.

I am a customer of Peter's EuroPacific Bank. He has a number of mutual funds that have been loosing for years, up until last year when they, particularly the gold one, started having gains. He's also been hammering his investors to buy gold and his other underperforming products for years. While telling them to stay out of the US, which has performed much better.

He is now a broken clock that is right about once per decade.

Peter is one of the best on economic fundamentals there is. You'll avoid all the bubbles with Peter - the bubbles you can make very large gains out of. The market is not driven by people like Peter who are battened down to the fundamentals. They are driven by exuberance and now central bank funded bubbles.

The irony is that Peter is obsessed with blowing a bubble out of gold. He expects gold to cycle up into the thousands, selling at many times its commercial market price. And that the price should be artificially inflated by central banks using it as a reserve. No one will be doing anything with all this gold the will pay to have lying and vaults. The same kind of thing he criticises people for holding crypto for.

His bank is also great, because they have a direct account with The Federal Reserve and they keep 100% of deposits.

He is right about everything he says about crypto. It's unfeasible for BTC to be a medium of exchange on a large-scale to to it's deflationary nature. Anything is a store of value if you can sell it for more than you bought it for. Gold generally hasn't fared well in that sphere for the last ten years. Crypto has turned beans into retirements. Both have a bubble element to them, crypto being 99% bubble and thus the best to make gains in. In the long term I think crypto+ will spawn widely used products. Right now it't at about the stage the internet was when it had BBS.

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03-12-2020 09:35 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #102
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Yeah Schiff is a joke and using YTD as a start for his calls is a mistake. He's called ten of the last recessions, as they say.
03-12-2020 09:39 PM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #103
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Yes, if you want to ride bubbles, then Schiff is not the right person to listen to. But in this recent bear market, he has been right so far in what to hold. If you listened to him and held at least some gold, you didn't lose as much money. If you did the opposite of his advice and held crypto, you got destroyed. Two of his main points remain to be seen: whether gold will dramatically increase in value long term along with a dollar devaluation and fall in the bond market, and whether crypto is a bubble that has popped permanently. Too early to tell on those.

I know he's a tout and a broken clock, but in this case it paid to listen to him.
03-12-2020 10:52 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #104
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Well, I guess there are worse places to get your stock advice...

03-12-2020 11:14 PM
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Post: #105
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The problem with the Trumps is that they believe in magical thinking, that if you constantly say everything is great and refuse to acknowledge problems, somehow the problems will disappear and reality will conform itself to your positivity. Trump has been doing this the entire time he’s been POTUS in regards to his own failures and shortcomings, and is one sign of a bad and dishonest leader. You don’t want the President telling you everything’s great when it isn’t, and you don’t want his son talking about how ATH’s are the best time to buy into record long bull runs. But that’s who they are, and it works for them in the short term.

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03-12-2020 11:38 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #106
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-12-2020 10:52 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Yes, if you want to ride bubbles, then Schiff is not the right person to listen to. But in this recent bear market, he has been right so far in what to hold. If you listened to him and held at least some gold, you didn't lose as much money. If you did the opposite of his advice and held crypto, you got destroyed. Two of his main points remain to be seen: whether gold will dramatically increase in value long term along with a dollar devaluation and fall in the bond market, and whether crypto is a bubble that has popped permanently. Too early to tell on those.

I know he's a tout and a broken clock, but in this case it paid to listen to him.

His analysis is correct about the financial system, but his timing is often wrong -- which is certainly a big deal. But it is also all about perspective. For example, if you entered the market (e.g., the DJIA) in 2007, then it took you six years to break even. What were your opportunity costs during that six year period, while you sat on the sidelines waiting to break even? Would you have been better off listening to Peter Schiff during that period, when the price of gold actually doubled?

Someone who bought the NASDAQ in 2000 did not break even for 17 years! During that same period, gold tripled (it more than quadrupled, if you sold at the top two years earlier).

Right now, anyone who bought after the middle of 2017 is in the very same position (and we have not yet seen the bottom). If the Dow tanks 50%, it will eliminate paper profits back to the beginning of 2013 -- a seven-year period. If that happens, would the typical stock investor have been better off listening to Peter Schiff and sticking to more conservative investments? Again, what are the opportunity costs of waiting years to break even? Stated another way, what are the opportunity costs of not having a large sum of cash at a market bottom?

If you are not a sophisticated retail investor who has a proper exit plan in place, you might be much better off listening to someone such as Peter Schiff. There are plenty of "investors" who pile up paper profits for years (or even a decade) only to lose them in a few months. This cycle repeats endlessly. Rather than complain about analysts such as Peter Schiff when times are good, take the time to undertake a comparative analysis when things go awry. For many investors, right now might be a good time.

The fact is that if you are a "buy and hold investor," which is the retail holy-grail consensus strategy, the opportunity costs during a bear market or a financial panic kill you. You either need a workable exit plan (and self-discipline is a big part of such a strategy) -- or you should not be in the stock market. Have an exit plan, get into cash near the top, buy a mix of stocks and precious metals near the bottom. Or follow the herd and get butchered by the quants. I humbly suggest that you use this downturn as a learning opportunity. Do some analysis. Make a future game plan. Best of luck.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2020 11:47 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-12-2020 11:39 PM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #107
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm not an expert on how this stuff works so forgive me if this line of thinking is errant.

1.5 trillion dollars is roughly $4,587 per American citizen or $18,348‬ per family of four.

Currently this unimaginable sum of money is going to prop up the interests of the richest 10% of Americans. In rough numbers this is like handing a debt of $4,587 to each man, woman and child and writing a cheque to the richest 10% of Americans right now for $45,871.

If you wanted to break down the numbers further then you'd probably end up writing cheques to the top 1% for 400k and the 9% below them would get perhaps 20k, but literally everyone else loses by a flat 4.5k.

Am I wrong on this?

I get that there are broader ramifications for a market crash that affect the poor as well as the rich. I'm just wondering to what extent the poor are now subsidizing the enormous wealth of the top 10% or 1%.

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(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 04:32 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-13-2020 04:30 AM
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Lime Offline
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Post: #108
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Would it be sensible to start buying S&P 500 indexes bit by bit? Of course nobody knows but who are doing so already or thinking to?
03-13-2020 05:57 AM
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It_is_my_time Offline
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Post: #109
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 04:30 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  I'm not an expert on how this stuff works so forgive me if this line of thinking is errant.

1.5 trillion dollars is roughly $4,587 per American citizen or $18,348‬ per family of four.

Currently this unimaginable sum of money is going to prop up the interests of the richest 10% of Americans. In rough numbers this is like handing a debt of $4,587 to each man, woman and child and writing a cheque to the richest 10% of Americans right now for $45,871.

If you wanted to break down the numbers further then you'd probably end up writing cheques to the top 1% for 400k and the 9% below them would get perhaps 20k, but literally everyone else loses by a flat 4.5k.

Am I wrong on this?

I get that there are broader ramifications for a market crash that affect the poor as well as the rich. I'm just wondering to what extent the poor are now subsidizing the enormous wealth of the top 10% or 1%.

The whole economy will crash if something isn't done quickly. Whether that is get a cure/vaccine and calm everyone to go back to their normal lives, or the federal govt. actually bail out the citizens and not the globalist bankers.

There are millions, probably a hundred million or more, who depend on a paycheck from a job where they are required to be there and the job is paid by the hour. If these business go belly up due to everyone staying home (Hotels, retail, industry, etc.) then all these people lose their income and they can't pay their rent. You have a giant domino affect. The time for a temporary UBI is here and if we can't get that done then our federal govt. is completely worthless in every sense of the word.
03-13-2020 06:15 AM
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Sherman Offline
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Post: #110
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
It appears the market is going to halt for a third time. The futures are dead this morning. This is insanity. Containment doesn’t work. They are literally destroying the economy for something that will give most people something like the common cold. The only hope for the economy is that this reaches the tipping point and everyone gets it so that people stop being afraid.

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03-13-2020 06:37 AM
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Post: #111
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 06:15 AM)It_is_my_time Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 04:30 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  I'm not an expert on how this stuff works so forgive me if this line of thinking is errant.

1.5 trillion dollars is roughly $4,587 per American citizen or $18,348‬ per family of four.

Currently this unimaginable sum of money is going to prop up the interests of the richest 10% of Americans. In rough numbers this is like handing a debt of $4,587 to each man, woman and child and writing a cheque to the richest 10% of Americans right now for $45,871.

If you wanted to break down the numbers further then you'd probably end up writing cheques to the top 1% for 400k and the 9% below them would get perhaps 20k, but literally everyone else loses by a flat 4.5k.

Am I wrong on this?

I get that there are broader ramifications for a market crash that affect the poor as well as the rich. I'm just wondering to what extent the poor are now subsidizing the enormous wealth of the top 10% or 1%.

The whole economy will crash if something isn't done quickly. Whether that is get a cure/vaccine and calm everyone to go back to their normal lives, or the federal govt. actually bail out the citizens and not the globalist bankers.

There are millions, probably a hundred million or more, who depend on a paycheck from a job where they are required to be there and the job is paid by the hour. If these business go belly up due to everyone staying home (Hotels, retail, industry, etc.) then all these people lose their income and they can't pay their rent. You have a giant domino affect. The time for a temporary UBI is here and if we can't get that done then our federal govt. is completely worthless in every sense of the word.
+1

Low interest rates and money printing won't make this pandemic go away, absolutely asinine reaction. This isn't a financial crisis, it's a health one. Bailouts for big corporations won't cure it, people still won't leave their homes.

Want to spend obscene amounts of money, do so on people and on a proper response.

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03-13-2020 06:52 AM
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Post: #112
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Cryptocurrency falling?

Guess folk realize you can't wipe your arse with digital money.

(I fully acknowledge that most cash is also essentially digital at the time of writing).
03-13-2020 06:52 AM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #113
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 06:37 AM)Sherman Wrote:  It appears the market is going to halt for a third time. The futures are dead this morning. This is insanity. Containment doesn’t work. They are literally destroying the economy for something that will give most people something like the common cold. The only hope for the economy is that this reaches the tipping point and everyone gets it so that people stop being afraid.

You are incorrect.

If you get your wish then the mathematics indicates that tens of millions will die. This is not an opinion. This is a cold, hard fact. The resultant panic would then destroy your beloved markets regardless.

Increasingly I am seeing this plague as Godsent to punish those who value money over compassion. The Almighty gave the nations of men the choice of saving their people or their wealth, and those that choose their wealth will lose both.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 07:00 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-13-2020 06:58 AM
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Post: #114
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
03-13-2020 07:51 AM
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Post: #115
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 05:57 AM)Lime Wrote:  Would it be sensible to start buying S&P 500 indexes bit by bit? Of course nobody knows but who are doing so already or thinking to?

Hmm... okay, we're at the point where I think "it depends" is a sensible answer. My mood is the same as WallStreetPlayboys, who are much better at stocks than I am:


BUT, on the other hand dollar cost averaging is usually an okay idea, since it limits your downside exposure. If you want to start now, it's not the dumbest idea in the world.

I sure as hell wouldn't do it though.
03-13-2020 08:50 AM
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eradicator Offline
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Post: #116
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I’ve made decent cash this year and am waiting for the market to bottom out and so I can finally buy. Should I do that today or wait until we get the next major news break? Big Grin

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03-13-2020 09:14 AM
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Post: #117
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
If the govt. doesn't bailout the people with some form of UBI then the whole house of cards will collapse. If people can't work and they don't get paid they can't pay rent. If rent doesn't get paid the landlords go bankrupt. If they go bankrupt you have a run on banks and the entire system will collapse.
03-13-2020 09:17 AM
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Sherman Offline
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Post: #118
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Last night, the selloff was close enough to test the December 2018 low, and the market did open this morning. This could form the basis for a low.

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03-13-2020 09:23 AM
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Post: #119
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Some Eurotrash countries banning shorts and this could come to the US. The Bigs dont want the plebs getting a lot of $$ off of their misfortune. They are screaming for corporate welfare (they got it) and more (unlimited funds/loans).

Please tell me how this market isn't a manipulated side show just to make the rich richer.

Trillions injected and still Americans have to deal with the shitty American health system. Laugh
03-13-2020 10:02 AM
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Post: #120
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 04:30 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  I'm not an expert on how this stuff works so forgive me if this line of thinking is errant.

1.5 trillion dollars is roughly $4,587 per American citizen or $18,348‬ per family of four.

Currently this unimaginable sum of money is going to prop up the interests of the richest 10% of Americans.

Am I wrong on this?

This money will largely go into M3 money, which includes all the instruments financial institutions have on their books that don't usually circulate publicly. The repurchases (repos) which this $1.5 trillion will be used for is in M3 money. The Fed has stopped publishing how much M3 money there is.

This is a good chart to show what has been going on:

[Image: UK-Money-Velocity-Money-Supply-and-GDP-data-graph.png]

As they created more shadow banking money, it didn't circulate, so the speed at which money circulates has gone down.

There is a relationship between goods and money. As one grows the other falls. And the speed (velocity) at which it circulates affects the price. There are X amount of goods in the society being chased by Y amount of money. If the speed at which money circulates increases then it outpaces production. The value of goods is more than money. The price of goods goes up - inflationary. On the other hand, if people are increasingly saving then the value of money goes up and goods down - deflationary.

Some of the money is going to buy treasuries, which will then be sent by the government. But this is in a deflationary environment (people are running to cash and sitting on it) - deflationary. Injecting new money is inflationary.

The top 10%, who hold more stocks and real estate, are the beneficiaries, as The Fed is inducing excessive values on their assets by stepping in to buy when the market doesn't want to. That is so long as the sell their assets before the bubble bursts.

If they threw that $1.5 trillion into the gen. pop. it would cause a bit more inflation. And rather than the economically integral functions of the government that treasury purchases would induce, the general population would spend it on dead-ends like eGirls, Netflix, beer. I think it would also cause a quite severe erosion of trust in the big players who have to take on risk or sell something to get dollars.

As this is a shell game The Fed can continue this until people want to dump the dollar. One big issue is that their policies are inducing people to make reckless and unproductive decisions. Why work 60 hour weeks when you could make 10% pa from sitting on stocks and have a side game in flipping condos to Chinese? Companies have been buying back their stocks with cheap money, pulling retail in at higher prices. Whatever you are doing you are now directly or indirectly propped up by The Fed.

This steals from the future. The growth of tomorrow is lost in the exuberance of today. I think they can keep it up as long as their is economic growth, no social unrest, major war etc. At the point they can't stimulate economic growth they will probably throw huge amounts into the general money supply and inflate the dollar away. That or something like it will be the real time for gold and maybe crypto.

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03-13-2020 10:24 AM
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Post: #121
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
This is a worldwide global depression brought about by a plague. People are still in denial about it, calling it a recession and such. This is going straight down to 15K on the DJI or lower. Whole world is tanking, China already suffered their worst crash in history, Europe is currently crashing at all time records.

If China, Europe, or America experienced the Cornavirus and it crashed their economy but not the other two, we'd still have a recession as fallout from one of the major pillars of the world economy crashing.

But all 3 pillars coming down at once? With an oil price war on top? Get ready for the hard, hard, hard times boys. Great Depression 2.0 will be just as bad, if not worse than the first one.

Short while you can, I envy those who are in a position to short this disaster of a market. No amount of money printing will save shit, if anything it could make things 10x worse for stocks. The rich will use the liquidity to sell and move into bonds. The fundamentals of the markets have evaporated, there is no supply due to the virus, this is going to be intense.

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03-13-2020 10:35 AM
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Post: #122
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm going to have to disagree with some of the apocalyptic doom and gloom Mad Max prognostications here. I've seen this before and if I could bottle the sentiment back then and let you experience the past the panic was palpable back in 2008 as well.

You should have seen the cascading waterfall of red when the market truly broke in 2008 and plummeted down. This was months and months of deep red waterfalls of blood.

People were freaking the fuck out. There were many people who committed suicide just like back in the great depression.

Like I said before, think rationally and logically.

There needs to be evidence of economic contagion to signal a deep recession and a full blown bear market. I'm not saying the conditions aren't there..because they certainly are but you also need to put a big drop like this into perspective and react to it appropriately.

The funny thing about bear markets is that there is actually plenty of time to react.
03-13-2020 10:51 AM
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Post: #123
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 10:51 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  The funny thing about bear markets is that there is actually plenty of time to react.

The time for acting is long over. Any viable exit plan would have gotten a prudent investor out of the market by now (unless they are hedging).

You are correct in the limited sense that all that an investor can do now is react (and hope for the best), instead of acting proactively (by having had an exit plan in place and implementing it). Reacting, or flailing about, is not a viable long-term strategy for success.
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 11:21 AM by Tail Gunner.)
03-13-2020 11:18 AM
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Post: #124
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 07:51 AM)rotekz Wrote:  

Can someone please explain this - the explanation provided is wishy-washy at best.

Where is this money actually coming from?
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2020 11:46 AM by JiggyLordJr.)
03-13-2020 11:43 AM
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Post: #125
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-13-2020 11:43 AM)JiggyLordJr Wrote:  
(03-13-2020 07:51 AM)rotekz Wrote:  

Can someone please explain this - the explanation provided is wishy-washy at best.

Where is this money actually coming from?

By devaluing the currency and printing more US$. The US$ is the world reserve currency so for the time being you can get away with it. Obviously this can't go on forever so we are throwing away the future to live for the now. No one is allowed to speak the harsh realities of life and they are covered up by the fed reserve printing money.
03-13-2020 11:50 AM
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