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The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #51
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I think stocks rebounded today because hopes are high for a stimulus (from the USGov or the Fed).

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(This post was last modified: 03-10-2020 06:52 PM by Samseau.)
03-10-2020 06:52 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #52
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Putting this here because this is something that not a lot of amateur investors know:
Stocks will ALWAYS rebound significantly from the low after a major fall. Doesn't matter what the stock is, doesn't matter what the circumstances are, they will ALWAYS rebound after a major fall, and usually that rebound will be significant (A stock that dropped 20% the previous day might rebound 5% the next, for instance). It never goes down in a 100% straight line.

This does not mean that they won't continue to fall after the rebound! (Also, you don't know when they'll rebound or how much they'll rebound, so trying to make money off this phenomenon is brutally hard.)

For example, last week we had that huge drop in the dow from 29500 to 25500. But the day after, we had a gigantic gain of like 1000 points! There was a lot of uninformed commentary after the rebound about how the threat was over, Trump had saved the economy, etc.

Nope. A day or two later it went right back down again.

Don't fall for this trap! If you see a rebound after a major drop, it does not mean things are okay! It's just a natural law of the markets, and after the rebound is over it may very well go right back down again.
03-10-2020 09:44 PM
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bacon Offline
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Post: #53
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I know elites are obsessed with numbers. For instance, "in March 9, 2009 marked the bottom for the stock market crash that resulted from the financial crisis. The S&P 500 hit 666 during trading hours that day"

11 years later on March 09, 2020 I think we hit the bottom.

Curiously, the elites seem to love the 11 number.

In Lloyd Strayhorn's numberology book. "Numbers and You" he writes:

"Although the 11 under modern numerology is a master number and represents the highest qualities the original meaning of this compound number under the Chaldean system of numbers is different. In the Chaldean, or mystic system, the 11 offers a warning to the occultist, it demotes hidden dangers and great trails and difficulties."

Quote:The World Trade Center took 11 years to build
The World Trade Center stood like an 11
9 + 1 + 1 = 11
September 11th is 111 days until the end of the year
The first plane to hit the World Trade Center was Flight 11
The total crew on Flight 11 was 11
source

Looking at this graph, its highly likely Monday was the capitulation day.

[Image: ESxjqEkXkAAM0NB?format=png&name=small]

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(This post was last modified: 03-10-2020 11:13 PM by bacon.)
03-10-2020 11:10 PM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #54
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I just would like to note for those who might've forgotten or weren't aware, SamuelBRoberts and Gework gave good predictions on the crypto bubble as it was playing out. Doesn't mean they're automatically right this time, but it should be noted.
03-10-2020 11:48 PM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #55
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I posted this in the other thread, but I will post it here too, because I think it's important:

Robinhood Maxed Out Credit Line Last Month Amid Market Tumult

Quote:In the throes of frantic market uncertainty, traders using Robinhood Markets Inc. faced the ultimate frustration: Their accounts kept malfunctioning. Behind the scenes, the online brokerage was already bracing for financial strains.

Robinhood drew its entire $200 million credit facility from Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to people familiar with the matter. It made the move just as fears of the coronavirus set off more than two weeks of violent market swings and heavy volume, during which Robinhood’s trading platform suffered three significant outages.


“Our capital position remains strong,” the Menlo Park, California-based firm said in an emailed statement, saying the decision to borrow predated and was entirely unrelated to the outages. “We determined it was prudent to draw on our credit line during the week of Feb. 24 in light of market volatility. That capital was returned in full last week.”

It said it’s not unusual for companies to take precautionary measures during such market conditions.


Read more: Robinhood Trading Customers Miss Stock Rally

“Companies don’t tap their credit line unless they need to,” said David Ritter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who spoke generally about the issue without commenting directly on Robinhood. When companies do, it’s “perhaps not a good signal with regard to their cash burn, which could make creditors nervous.”

Repeated Outages
In the days since it tapped the line of credit, Robinhood’s platform has repeatedly gone dark for more than an hour at a time, including an outage March 2 that spanned an entire U.S. trading session, in which the S&P 500 surged 4.6%.

Robinhood said last week that a confluence of factors -- record account sign-ups along with highly volatile and historic market conditions -- led to unprecedented stress on the firm’s infrastructure.

That heavy load caused the so-called Domain Name System, or DNS, to fail. The system is essentially the phone book that computers use to turn a domain name into an IP address, and it’s how users access websites around the world.

On Monday, Robinhood faced a fresh breakdown as U.S. stocks plunged. Stocks tumbled so hard they set off a market-wide trading halt minutes after the open. And by day’s end, the S&P 500 was down 7.6%, the worst performance since the depths of 2008’s financial crisis.

“We know this interruption was frustrating for our customers -- especially after last week and on a day that trading was halted,” the company said in the statement. “Our platform is now fully operational and we’re working hard to improve our service during these historic and volatile market conditions.”

The firm declined to comment further on what sparked Monday’s disruption.

Engineering Focus
Robinhood, founded in 2013 by Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, pioneered commission-free trading, a move that’s since been copied by larger online brokers including Charles Schwab Corp. The startup has attracted 10 million users and is now backed by venture capital firms including Index Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia, garnering a valuation of $7.6 billion.

The company has been increasingly focused on improving the reliability of its service in recent years, and in mid-2018 hired Adam Wolff from Facebook Inc. to lead its squad of engineers.

When Wolff joined, Robinhood’s entire engineering workforce was the size of the group of specialists he’d led at Facebook, he previously said. He has been focused on adding staff and last month hired former Facebook colleague Paul Tarjan.

“An area where we plan to focus is one we continue to invest in heavily as a company -- compliance,” Wolff said in a blog post announcing the hiring. “It’s fundamental to our focus on our customers and our ability to safely and confidently move forward as a firm.”

Shaken Confidence
Software mishaps have rocked Robinhood before. In late 2018, the company’s options trading service had an outage that locked consumers out of their accounts and stopped them from closing positions. Employees had to call affected clients to apologize, according to people familiar with the matter.

For its latest outages, Robinhood has created a dedicated customer service team to work directly with customers, the company said in a statement. The impact among customers “varies significantly due to the nature of our business,” it said.


The latest technology problems have drawn the attention of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which has been in touch with Robinhood on the matter, according to a spokeswoman for the brokerage regulator. The firm previously agreed to pay $1.25 million to the watchdog for allegedly failing to ensure customers received best prices for securities orders. It didn’t admit or deny the allegations when settling the complaint.

Financial technology startups can risk eroding customer trust with outages, said John Bartleman, president of TradeStationGroup Inc., a rival online trading firm.

“If you’re a smaller fintech startup, your reputation is everything,” he said “If you can’t get in, you lose all trust in a brand.”

A growing number of Robinhood users on social media have been reporting trouble with closing their accounts. They’re also criticizing the $75 fee associated with the transferring to another platform.

Pankaj Sharma, a New Jersey IT professional with a $70,000 Robinhood account, said he sent an email to the company when he realized the site was down March 2, but didn’t receive a response until after the market closed. He’s now considering moving his money to a different brokerage.

“It’s really shaken my confidence,” he said by phone.

— With assistance by Olivia Rockeman, Michelle F Davis, and Nikitha Sattiraju

The fact that they recently maxed out their credit line is not a good sign. I also find these repeated prolonged outages suspicious.

In the event that Robinhood turns out to be insolvent, depending on what you're holding your money in, even cash accounts, you may get screwed. There's little upside to staying there since everyone has free trades now, and lots of downside. You can transfer out without selling your positions if you so choose.
03-10-2020 11:57 PM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #56
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm not too familiar with robinhood but this...

Quote:Software mishaps have rocked Robinhood before. In late 2018, the company’s options trading service had an outage that locked consumers out of their accounts and stopped them from closing positions. Employees had to call affected clients to apologize, according to people familiar with the matter.

Change to a different online broker asap. This is hot garbage. Whatever you "save" in fees will be eaten up by a one time mishap like this.

I've never had this happen even once with the services I use in about 20 years experience with the market.

I looked at the wiki of the two Robinhood founders and they sound like silicon valley dickheads who finagled their way into the venture capitalism lottery with a finance and trading platform.

Plus the biography of these two guys..oy vey!

Vladimir Tenev of (((bulgarian))) descent? Teamed up with Indian brosef Baiju Bhatt.

Many bobs and vagene with those investor funded billions but an unreliable trading platform for the customer.

Thanks, but no thanks.
03-11-2020 03:06 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #57
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
On a lighter note:


A barrel of oil is now cheaper than an actual barrel.
This comes as kind of a shock to me, because I kind of assumed that if you bought the oil you got the barrel with it for free.
Turns out I was wrong, and it's just a unit of measurement. If I'dve stopped to think about it that would've been obvious (Where would you put all the barrels when you're done with them? Why would you need that many barrels?) But I never did.


Also, zoomers are treating the stock market crash with utter contempt, which I find a reassuring sign:

Stock market uber alles policies have produced a decade of mal-investment. I'm glad the younger generation is treating it with the contempt it deserves.
03-11-2020 03:13 AM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #58
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^^

I think part of that contempt is due to lack of investment. There's no skin in the game so the market is just nonsense to them. It's easy to meme and wish for collapse when you have nothing to begin with. Nihilism and misanthropy is the easy cope in American society.

Most zoomers and even many millenials don't have two pennies to rub together.

Millenials are in their prime earning years at this point but most of the successful ones are probably still knee deep in mortgages or debt.

Boomers are probably sweating bullets tho. I imagine even some Gen X'ers are too. I'm Gen X but I do think that most Gen X are more like millenials in that the vast majority are not financially as well off as their boomer parents.
03-11-2020 03:35 AM
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Emancipator Offline
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Post: #59
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-11-2020 03:35 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  ^^

I think part of that contempt is due to lack of investment. There's no skin in the game so the market is just nonsense to them. It's easy to meme and wish for collapse when you have nothing to begin with. Nihilism and misanthropy is the easy cope in American society.

Most zoomers and even many millenials don't have two pennies to rub together.

Millenials are in their prime earning years at this point but most of the successful ones are probably still knee deep in mortgages or debt.

Boomers are probably sweating bullets tho. I imagine even some Gen X'ers are too. I'm Gen X but I do think that most Gen X are more like millenials in that the vast majority are not financially as well off as their boomer parents.

Sadly because of these views, Gen X and Millennial who inherit from their Boomer parents are just more likely to squander that wealth.

Good for the GDP and consumerism.

I guess this is by design...

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03-11-2020 03:45 AM
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gework Offline
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Post: #60
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I suspect these new-fangled tech-startup-type companies will be the biggest risk in the crash. Companies like RobinHood.

They have become the hot thing for venture capital - a company with an app that is able to suck up market share. The model is pour in billions for years to sustain years of cash burning in the hope that you will end up with a $100 billion+ cap stock that makes 0.5% profit.

Uber burnt about 7% of its valuation last year. In a recession they might need $15 billion a year to stay afloat. AirBnB has a 3% profit margin, while Booking.com is at 20%. A recession will likely take some of theses out.

Another factor that will increase in the 20s is the infestation of far-left ideology at these corporations. Bar women, the diversity and inclusion militia is currently largely reserved to internships. It's voluntary, but they feel the acute need to fluff their numbers by filling internships with people who are only there due to their bunked up test scores. These lefties have largely banned their opposition by saying they are bad. But now the far-left is using the same tactic to push lefties into accepting their position. That is to conflate a meritocracy with punching down. The left have used that against liberals and anit-left/conservatives. Now they have the same attack against the already hobbled meritocracy they support.

They are playing a left wing game against people who will always have a better hand in that game. They will always have a hand that will make silicon valley fops look like they are punching down. Anyone who pushed back against it, while still insisting they are left wing, will be relegated to only producing their ideas on such nasty places as Fox News. All they have is the far-left are a bit stupid and we just need higher taxes. That's a loosing hand on the left. Literally Hitler.

The overtly left-wing corporations are not going to be able to resist diversity at the expense of meritocracy. Don't want the freak show running your board room with post-profit ideology? How dare you?





Meanwhile China's tech is ramping up. They have problems, but they can still grow by just copying The US and doing The US's ideas back to it, better. They aren't going to burn that growth because they can't say no to people who shouldn't be there.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
(This post was last modified: 03-11-2020 07:39 AM by gework.)
03-11-2020 07:33 AM
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Dr. Howard Offline
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Post: #61
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-11-2020 07:33 AM)gework Wrote:  ...





...

That video brightened my morning. That person is like a hyperbole of identity politics that makes it all even more clownish. Black+disabled+tranny?+made up name+how dare you.

Started closing down my robinhood account yesterday.

Why do the heathen rage and the people imagine a vain thing? Psalm 2:1 KJV
03-11-2020 08:40 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #62
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I was looking at the DJI chart earlier and trying to think about what my re-entry signal would be. This is a total spitball post, I'm not making any investment decisions off this logic and neither should you, but spitballing and tossing around theories is how we learn. So here's what I'm currently thinking:

1.) No touch until at least 2 weeks after somebody I trust says the epidemic curve is broken. (Probably somebody like Scott Gottlieb. https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd)
I don't play falling knife games and I sure as hell don't play them in the middle of a pandemic.
2.) Once condition 1 is hit, I would wait for a golden cross (50 MDA crosses over 200 MDA to the upside.) Right now 50 is higher than than the 200, but if you think it's gonna stay that way you're an idiot.

Just what I'm thinking now, based off of 10 minutes of staring at a chart before bed. Would be interested to hear other member's thoughts.
03-11-2020 09:18 AM
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gework Offline
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Post: #63
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The moving day average, MACD and RSI are all at the point where they could be a great buy or sell before the real storm moment.

I think the best metric to go by is RSI. With one week candles, before this highly central banking driven market ('08 onward), any time the RSI was around 30 was a buy. Now you are looking at RSI 15-20 being your buy.

The MACD moving average looks like it has more to go down. Comparing it to the Christmas '18 correction it looks like this has about 1 month more to go down.

[Image: Screenshot-at-2020-03-11-15-10-22.png]

I am steadfastly waiting for 15-20 RSI as the buy signal. Just wish I bought more bonds when they were cheap. The level of economic growth, millennial woes, rustbelt decline etc. don't warrant these stock prices. It' going to have to hit real lows to clear out the most exuberant and reckless investments of our lifetime.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
03-11-2020 10:45 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #64
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-11-2020 07:33 AM)gework Wrote:  I suspect these new-fangled tech-startup-type companies will be the biggest risk in the crash. Companies like RobinHood.

I agree. Dealing with such firms is an unforced error. Just like the case of a bank, where you do not want to rely on FDIC insurance but on the actual financial strength of the bank, you want to rely on the financial strength of the broker rather than SIPC coverage. Importantly, SIPC coverage comes into play only when a firm shuts down because of financial circumstances in which customer assets are missing -- because of theft or unauthorized trading -- or are otherwise at risk because of the firm's failure.

https://www.fool.com/investing/brokerage...cover.aspx


I recommend that you consider one of the large brokers listed on the exchanges with the most clients and the most client assets -- and therefore the greatest financial strength. For example, Charles Scwab and Fidelity. Those two firms hold more than $10 trillion in client assets between them.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/pr...rms-us.asp


Schwab has incredible customer service, which is very helpful for novice investors. I can also recommend Schwab Bank. You can send a wire transfer domestically or overseas right from your account.
(This post was last modified: 03-11-2020 05:24 PM by Tail Gunner.)
03-11-2020 05:20 PM
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KMK Offline
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Post: #65
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-10-2020 07:08 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Jew talk aside, El Chinito Loco has a point.

For any investments, at this point you've missed your entry window: the time to act was when reports of how bad it was in China were hitting the twitter-verse but hadn't percolated over to wall street yet, and normalcy bias was preventing the players there from acting. That time was two weeks ago, and it's gone now.

At this point, what the hell happens next is anyone's guess. This thing could go anywhere from "Completely forgotten about in 3 months" to "Trump dies of coronavirus and the dow goes to 12000." Nobody knows what the hell we're dealing with, so it's best just to sit tight.

Big brain play right now is to hold cash and time the flip to calls instead of trying to fomo into puts.
03-11-2020 11:57 PM
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Post: #66
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
What a year this has been so far. The virus, emptying stores, and a man with dementia about to win the Dem nomination.

May God have mercy on this country, though we don't deserve it.
03-12-2020 12:02 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #67
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-11-2020 11:57 PM)KMK Wrote:  Big brain play right now is to hold cash and time the flip to calls instead of trying to fomo into puts.

Agree with the logic of not playing with puts, but you're a brave man if you want to start playing around with calls right now.
03-12-2020 12:22 AM
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KMK Offline
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RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I'm nowhere close to buying any calls at the moment. Confused

It's just the focus for my next entry. Until I think the time is right I am cash gang.
03-12-2020 12:33 AM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #69
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
People need to think of a major correction like an intersection. The market is the car and it can go in any direction at that intersection and that direction has yet to be determined at this point.

It's unwise to start making plays when that trend isn't even clear yet.
03-12-2020 12:35 AM
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Post: #70
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-11-2020 09:18 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  I was looking at the DJI chart earlier and trying to think about what my re-entry signal would be. This is a total spitball post, I'm not making any investment decisions off this logic and neither should you, but spitballing and tossing around theories is how we learn. So here's what I'm currently thinking:

1.) No touch until at least 2 weeks after somebody I trust says the epidemic curve is broken.

Exactly my sentiment from a few days ago:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-60358...pid2066335
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2020 12:44 AM by Tail Gunner.)
03-12-2020 12:43 AM
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Dr. Howard Offline
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Post: #71
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
What happened to bitcoin? down 22%, did everyone trade it in to hoard toilet paper?

Why do the heathen rage and the people imagine a vain thing? Psalm 2:1 KJV
03-12-2020 08:40 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #72
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
It went down because everything's going down.

At least the "Bitcoin will rise in the event of an economic collapse!" theory is totally dead now. Bitcoin correlates with other asset classes, it doesn't move on its own. Can finally put that one to rest.
03-12-2020 08:42 AM
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joost Offline
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Post: #73
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
It is hard to predict the future, but right now we're getting screwed!

My blue chip stocks are down 2%, 3% for the year. But my portfolio in average is -20%! I'm running out of ammunition trying to buy the dip. My high yield stocks are getting hammered.
03-12-2020 09:42 AM
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Hansel Offline
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Post: #74
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I don’t think it has reached the bottom. Europe is a bomb about to explode, and when it does, things are gonna be worse. Unless you’re planning on holding for an extended period of time I don’t think you should go for that. It’s futile. Don’t let the potential short term gains fool you. Save your cash for at least a couple more months.
03-12-2020 10:18 AM
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Post: #75
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I have a lot of cash in my pension plan from work, so I moved some of it into large cap stocks (75% of what I moved) and then 25% into International. I only moved about 8% of my cash this time. If the Dow gets under 20,000 I will move another 8%. And then every Down dip of 2,000+ below 20,000 (18k, 16k, etc.) I will keep moving in 10%. I can't touch this money until I am 59 1/2 anyway.

This could be once in a life time buying opportunities. If the Dow gets to 15,000 I am going to my broker and writing a check for about as much as I can afford to take cash from my savings and put it into stocks.

I didn't move enough in 2008 and have regretted it ever since.
03-12-2020 11:20 AM
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