Read The Forum Rules: We have a clear set of rules to keep the forum running smoothly. Click here to review them.

Post Reply 
The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Author Message
Kona Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 5,734
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 144
Post: #26
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 02:12 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Are my FDIC-backed CDs safe?

Yes.

I cashed out all my stocks I've been playing around with in the middle of the night. I made money on all of them so I figured why not.

I bet a big part of the problem is that so many people can do like I did and just hit a button and be out of it. It used to be people had to call their brokers.

My concern is the time it takes the sales to settle and then the time it takes for the money to move to my bank account. All that stuff in between is not insured.

Aloha!
03-09-2020 06:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like Kona's post:
Roosh, kruger41, Mister Crowley
Emancipator Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,661
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 26
Post: #27
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 12:57 PM)22qwert22 Wrote:  
Quote: If oil prices stay as low as this for a period longer than 3 months, we could very possibly be seeing the end of the fracking industry. It would set Russia's economy back for 10 years, but it would also cripple the petrodollar.

Well this a calculated move by Russia They met with the Saudi's in Vienne, They knew the Saudi's will retaliate if they didn't co-operate with the production cuts.

So I think the Russians are probably ready for this? They won't be set back 10 years or much so. Because if it was a serious threat to their economy they only needed to cut production by about ~10% or so.

Exactly, it's the Russians telling Saudi to pound sand.

Russia has a larger reserve fund than the Saudis currently and don't have an extravagant internal budget to ensure the populace doesn't revolt

Mother Nature is a bitch & Father Time has an undefeated record
"If you watch cinderella backwards, its about a woman who learns her place." --Kbell

demographics is destiny
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2020 06:57 PM by Emancipator.)
03-09-2020 06:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Emancipator's post:
bacon, It_is_my_time
gework Offline
Pelican
****
Gold Member

Posts: 1,551
Joined: Apr 2017
Reputation: 78
Post: #28
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
There are a lot of factors at play here so it is anyone's guess what will happen, but I don't see this being as bad as some predict.

There is room for much more government debt. Japan is at 250% debt and their central bank is buying stocks. A third of the Japanese government budget is debt repayments. Most Western governments are at about 7%. The pain of rolling up the unsustainable financial system and government is currently much more painful than the squeeze (part of which is structural and cannot be mitigated).

The US is in a much better shape than Japan. The top 1% of the US economy lays waste to pretty much anyone else, the demographics are better than Europe, the US gets more than half high skilled immigrants, the share of global FX in USD is virtually unchanged over the last twenty years. There are plenty of problems, but the pain of rolling the game up is huge.

Rolling the game up equals ten years of severe pain. Governments would be able to do it even if they wanted to and were elected to do so.

When the markets crash everyone will run for the dollar. It will probably be the greatest run into an asset ever seen. There will be very little anyone want beyond the dollar - highly deflationary. The Fed will print like crazy, but most of that money will just go into shoring up the banking system. The money won't come into public circulation, like most of the money from QE1, 2, 3. circulating money supply hasn't been touched.

[Image: 209922-15232413659331422_origin.jpg]

Look at China on the other hand and their M2 is through the roof.

Japan has set the model. You can prop of banking systems for a very long time and the US is far behind the curve.

A blow to the dollar requires people to run out of it into something else, flooding the market with dollars. I can't see that happening. There isn't anything that can fill that void. For now no one wants CNY, RUR, gold in the trillions. China is around two decades away from GDP parity with the US and they are facing serious issues from an already shrinking workforce and poor central planning. At best The US and China becomes equals.

The way I see it panning out:

1) market crash (soon)
2) mass money printing
3) the decline in living standards since '08 will increase, leading for more support for socialism, the top 10% will largely be untouched
4) Western governments will surpass 150% debt to GDP
5) social order will continue to fray

Then another crash, in say 2030, that will take out Japan and other less stable countries that have surpassed 250% debt to GDP, like Italy and Greece. But at this point The US will still be the best house in a bad neighborhood. Depending on factors there should be good growth in South (East) Asia up until about 2040, but none of those countries will rival The US.

If there is any country that is going to have this insane crash some are predicting it's China. Huge USD debt exposure, shrinking work force, trade war, ground zero for Cronoavirus, huge slowing bubble economy based on bad investments of central planners.

My plan has been:

1) sell most stocks (Jan 2019)
2) move into high quality USD bonds - approaching 40% return in one year - and cash
3) I'm now buying some more recession proofing, like Grizzly Short Fund
4) buying and loaning stables coins for the next crypto bottom, maybe $6K
5) wait for the crash
6) give it six months and go all in on cheap stocks and if gold goes down, that too, as once The Fed starts printing like crazy gold should reach new highs

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2020 07:59 PM by gework.)
03-09-2020 07:59 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 12 users Like gework's post:
SamuelBRoberts, NoMoreTO, joost, Lampwick, Tactician, infowarrior1, Tail Gunner, Emancipator, Dismal Operator, DJ-Matt, Mister Crowley, C-Note
Lampwick Offline
Woodpecker
**
Gold Member

Posts: 256
Joined: Aug 2017
Reputation: 15
Post: #29
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Gework, Japan has negative interest rates and owns 75% of the Japan ETF market. If you had to guess, what are the mechanisms that the U.S. will use to prop the economy up? We are approaching 0% interest rates again, and the 30 year has gone below 1%, so I don't think quantitative easing is much of an option.
03-09-2020 08:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Enoch Offline
Ostrich
****

Posts: 2,515
Joined: Nov 2015
Reputation: 12
Post: #30
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Trump is an all in player. Time to see monetary policy stretched to its limit. Mass govt spending plan to boost GDP, wages, consumer demand. Huge business tax breaks.
03-09-2020 09:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
EvanWilson Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 535
Joined: Aug 2015
Reputation: 5
Post: #31
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 11:44 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  So, if your prognosis is that the market is going to collapse overnight and long term then logically speaking you should be loading up on index puts or shorting S&P futures. If you are right then you'll be immensely rich within 6 months to a year.

I don't doubt that there is serious distress right now in the market.. but 1 year out there has to be bigger signs pointing to a bear market aside from alarmist sources. Black swan events need to show that they can collapse industry for that to happen. The financial crisis in 2008 was an example of a collapsing industry. 2000..collapsing industry.

I took a look at that last week and this week. The problem is that with volatility being so high the premium is massive. Even on short options, like the weekly ones, there are large premiums, meaning even if you get a large move and would make a profit, one is not being compensated enough for the risk.
03-09-2020 09:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes EvanWilson's post:
Emancipator
EvanWilson Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 535
Joined: Aug 2015
Reputation: 5
Post: #32
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 06:51 PM)Kona Wrote:  
(03-09-2020 02:12 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Are my FDIC-backed CDs safe?

Yes.

I cashed out all my stocks I've been playing around with in the middle of the night. I made money on all of them so I figured why not.

I bet a big part of the problem is that so many people can do like I did and just hit a button and be out of it. It used to be people had to call their brokers.

My concern is the time it takes the sales to settle and then the time it takes for the money to move to my bank account. All that stuff in between is not insured.

Aloha!

While you broker stuff does not have FDIC insurance (except for maybe the all cash part of the account, some do have FDIC insurance like a bank account) there is SIPC (covers brokerage accounts to 500,000 in the event of the firm failing) that sort of acts like the FDIC for brokerage accounts. Plus some brokerage firms by additional insurance on top of SIPC coverage.
03-09-2020 09:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like EvanWilson's post:
robreke, Kona, infowarrior1
robreke Offline
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,099
Joined: Apr 2014
Reputation: 67
Post: #33
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I don't know if this is the popping of the "everything bubble" or not.

My best guess, based on the data I use, is we'll see about a 25%- 30% correction, off the highs, for the major indices.

A cyclical bear market, within a long-term secular bull.

A Man has free choice to the extent that he is rational - St. Aquinas
03-09-2020 10:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like robreke's post:
It_is_my_time, infowarrior1, Mister Crowley
EvanWilson Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 535
Joined: Aug 2015
Reputation: 5
Post: #34
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 02:12 PM)Roosh Wrote:  Are my FDIC-backed CDs safe?

Yes, up to $250,000 per depositor.
03-09-2020 10:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes EvanWilson's post:
Mister Crowley
Leonard D Neubache Offline
Owl
******
Gold Member

Posts: 13,423
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 216
Post: #35
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
For all you guys looking to buy the dip, I hope you get your month+ of supplies in place first.

Meanwhile "safe" is a relative term. I'm sure the folks in Cyprus thought that literal money in the bank was safe until they woke up one day to find withdrawal controls then a week later got bailed in with their own money, all executed entirely under rule of law.

If the circumstances are unprecedented then so too will be the measures taken to retain control.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2020 10:46 PM by Leonard D Neubache.)
03-09-2020 10:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 7 users Like Leonard D Neubache's post:
Tactician, STG, It_is_my_time, infowarrior1, gework, DJ-Matt, John Michael Kane
Hansel Offline
Sparrow

Posts: 77
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 1
Post: #36
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 10:00 PM)robreke Wrote:  I don't know if this is the popping of the "everything bubble" or not.

My best guess, based on the data I use, is we'll see about a 25%- 30% correction, off the highs, for the major indices.

A cyclical bear market, within a long-term secular bull.

Correction only happens when the current instruments in place working properly to control they market. Right now that is the Fed issuing debt and cutting rates. Problem is, they have no more wiggle room to do that anymore and the market has been overvalued which means it could very easily crumble once something that is not just financial, but also political takes place.

Each instrument that operates as a major arm of financial control before the next wave of economic crisis is established at the end of the previous one, due to the failure of the last instrument to contain the crisis.
03-10-2020 02:31 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
RWIsrael Offline
Robin
*

Posts: 244
Joined: Nov 2018
Reputation: 3
Post: #37
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Funnily enough this all happened right after international women's day when all banks and corporates were busy virtue signalling about how many women they have on the board.

The biggest correction I'm hoping for is for the wokeness to stop and some serious measures taken to create value for shareholders.
03-10-2020 02:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 5 users Like RWIsrael's post:
Richard Turpin, gework, Emancipator, John Michael Kane, JiggyLordJr
Captain Gh Online
Ostrich
****
Gold Member

Posts: 1,943
Joined: Feb 2013
Reputation: 16
Post: #38
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
From someone who's not an expert... isn't funny that this happened just a couple of months prior to our current situation... and the context surrounding the COVID-19 Virus that we discussed in other threads! Hmmm!!!

More than 1300 CEO's Have Left Their Post in The Past Year

Unfortunately can't link up the article!


For those who believed that at least Capitalism was a fair system... can't the truth be more obvious? They took our cash... and Peaced Out!!!
03-10-2020 03:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Captain Gh's post:
Mister Crowley
STG Offline
Pigeon

Posts: 27
Joined: Jan 2020
Reputation: 0
Post: #39
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Part of a book Generational Dynamics for Historians. First published in 2005 (before the 2008 crash), the book uses Generational Theory that was developed from the Fourth Turning theory, to show how history repeating is due to generational changes.

War and economic crisis can be predicted by using this theory.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.book2.htm

The Stock Market is the biggest bubble in the history of man.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1896 to 2002 (log scale), with best fit exponential growth line.
[Image: djialog.jpg]

Quote:In the case of the stock market, it should be a lot simpler to do long-term forecasting, because we can easily graph the stock market, something we can't as easily do with wars.

Take a look at the adjoining graph, and you'll see just how easy it is. The heavy squiggly line is the DJIA, and the thin straight line is the long-term exponential growth trend line. Since the DJIA must follow the trend line in the long run, we can easily see that the DJIA is going to fall substantially from where it is today (early 2005).

How much? Well, the trend value in early 2005 is 4670, and in the year 2010 is about 5800, but the actual DJIA today is between 10,000 and 11,000. Thus we can expect the DJIA to fall substantially in order to be consistent with the long-term trend. Moreover, the trend line represents an average, so the DJIA will have to fall far below 5800 to compensate for the large bubble. A fall to the 3000 range seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Quote:Price / Earnings ratios
One such comparison can be made using standard price/earnings ratios.

As we described earlier in this chapter, the prices of stocks have spiked way above the real values of their underlying companies the stocks represent. We estimated that the value of an S&P 500 company grows by an average of 1.34% per year, but since 1990, the S&P 500 stock index has grown at 6.10% per year. This has created an imbalance, where stocks are overpriced by at least a factor of two.

One way of measuring this is by comparing the price of a stock with the earnings of the company. The amount of money that a company earns is a good proxy for the real value of the company.

When the price/earnings ratio is 25, it roughly means that a company is earning $1.00 per year for each $25.00 in the price of its stock. This roughly means that an investor buying that stock can hope to earn only $1.00/$25.00 or 4% per year. At a P/E ratio of 20, the rate is $1.00/$20.00, or 5% per year.

Historically, the S&P 500 P/E ratio has averaged around 14. This corresponds to an interest rate of roughly 7%. Thus, depending on the era, you could theoretically earn 7% interest by investing in the stock market, or you could earn around 5% interest in a bank, or 4% or so by investing in Treasury bonds. The differences in interest rates have to do with risk. You earn more in stocks because there's a risk of losing everything, while you earn less in government bonds because they're backed up by the national treasury, and there's little risk.

A P/E ratio can be computed for an individual stock or for an entire group of stocks. An individual stock with a P/E ratio above 17 is considered overpriced, while a stock with a P/E ratio below 10 is considered underpriced. If the S&P 500 P/E index is above 17, then the entire stock market is considered overpriced.

The adjacent graph shows the S&P 500 P/E ratio index since 1881. As you can see, every time in the last century it exceeded 20, it fell below 10 within 5-15 years. It went above 20 in 1995, so as of this writing, in early 2005, it's been above 20 for ten years, so a substantial collapse is just about due.
03-10-2020 03:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like STG's post:
gework, Mister Crowley
Kona Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 5,734
Joined: Aug 2009
Reputation: 144
Post: #40
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
People in the know say these are once-in-a-lifetime low prices on the oil stocks. Exxon, Marathon, Oxy, etc.

Should you wait a day and see if they sink more?

Aloha!
03-10-2020 04:47 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Kona's post:
Mister Crowley, C-Note
El Chinito loco Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 4,739
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 73
Post: #41
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
I don't know how young or old you guys are on average but I cut my teeth on the stock market during the 2000 dot com crash, also the 2001 (9/11) collapse, and then again during the 2008 meltdown.

2008 was when I actually had substantial money in play (over 200k) and it's important to keep a rational and level head. All you need to know is the general direction of where the market is going.

The most important thing I learned throughout all this is..

Don't trade the news...let me say it again, don't trade the fucking news.

Turn the tv off and block out all external sources. Just trade the charts and what you see in front of you quantitatively.

I'm seeing a lot of the same doomsday talk now like I did during several crisis events. Like a famous trader said one time..everyone always says "it's different this time."

If you think the world is ending now that's more of a reflection of your own ego or biases.

This is a big correction and if it turns into an actual bear market all I have to say is that there is also no better time to be a trader than a high volatility bear environment. When I really started to trade a lot in 2008 I was rolling puts all the way down and made good money.

Something else to consider from a broader more meta geopolitical level..elite Jews own the U.S. and they literally own you as well..goy.

This is their celestial safe haven and by far the greatest project in their entire history as a people.

They aren't going to let it fall apart just yet. A hundred or even 200 years from now? Maybe..when things devolve more into Latin American chaos.

However, the host is still alive and has blood to give...it must be preserved.
03-10-2020 06:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 21 users Like El Chinito loco's post:
BlastbeatCasanova, SamuelBRoberts, Tactician, infowarrior1, berenmsc, M3B, Enoch, RoastBeefCurtains4Me, gework, Cr33pin, Samseau, bacon, TrifeLife, Emancipator, DJ-Matt, Dismal Operator, John Michael Kane, JiggyLordJr, Gremlin, Mister Crowley, C-Note
SamuelBRoberts Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 4,888
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 93
Post: #42
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Jew talk aside, El Chinito Loco has a point.

For any investments, at this point you've missed your entry window: the time to act was when reports of how bad it was in China were hitting the twitter-verse but hadn't percolated over to wall street yet, and normalcy bias was preventing the players there from acting. That time was two weeks ago, and it's gone now.

At this point, what the hell happens next is anyone's guess. This thing could go anywhere from "Completely forgotten about in 3 months" to "Trump dies of coronavirus and the dow goes to 12000." Nobody knows what the hell we're dealing with, so it's best just to sit tight.
03-10-2020 07:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 10 users Like SamuelBRoberts's post:
Tactician, infowarrior1, berenmsc, Lampwick, gework, Emancipator, An0dyne, JiggyLordJr, Mister Crowley, C-Note
Towgunner Offline
Sparrow

Posts: 113
Joined: Dec 2016
Reputation: 5
Post: #43
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Aside from the inevitable debtcalypse, which I don't think will be trigger by this vol, things are generally pretty good. A lot of people who are calling for a recession in 2020, before convid-19 hit, did so because the "book", economic theory, said so i.e. every cycle only lasts between x and y # of months. A big bias was their disdain for Trump and desire for a recession so he can be defeated in 2020. The book is just a book.

What isn't taken into account was the shit poor "recovery" or "economy" that that shit-dick-fuck tard obama created. Basically 8 fucking years of tepid growth if any. But lots of attention given to people like cross dressers et al. Point, that really wasn't a cycle. So, the real growth has just started and Trump's success hasn't engendered any big imbalances just yet. So, this economy still has legs, in fact, a lot of it. Convid-19 is rightly having an impact. Shit, conferences, events, countries are being cancelled. That will, of course, impact near-term sales and earnings, no doubt.

But, the one thing barry obama did over his tenure was to engender a low interest environment that made it advantageous for a CFO to buy his own company's shares and therefore sustain the value, keeping the shares from going down and appreciating the value of the shares, in this case, equity. They could borrow money cheap to do this if necessary, and the carry cost would be far exceeded by the increase in equity on their balance sheet. In other words, share buy backs paid for themselves. That inflated the market because there was this persistent nominal buyer always there.

So, in 2019 we had a fully valued market. Sure the economy was doing great, but, the market was ahead of it. For a money manager, the problem wasn't so much will it go down, rather, what the fuck can I buy? So, now we have an exogenous unexpected event, convid-19, that is having material impact on the economy, shutdowns et al, and is as good as any excuse for the fully valued market to sell off. I still think there is a ways to go, just by judging from the news cycle. Cancellations have yet to peak. But, this will pass. For fuck sake, the mortality rate is a joke. This is just a bad case of the flu. And once it passes all that freed up capital will come woshing back into the markets like a tidal wave and it will go right back up.

Watch it, track support levels i.e. 50 MDA or 200 MDA and the news, and when the time is right buy a double weighed or triple weighted ETF for the S&P and make a good return for the year.
03-10-2020 07:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 4 users Like Towgunner's post:
gework, Emancipator, Gremlin, Mister Crowley
SamuelBRoberts Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 4,888
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 93
Post: #44
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-10-2020 07:43 AM)Towgunner Wrote:  Watch it, track support levels i.e. 50 MDA or 200 MDA and the news, and when the time is right buy a double weighed or triple weighted ETF for the S&P and make a good return for the year.

I don't like shitting on other posters, but dude, if you're gonna give advice at least look at the charts first.
We left behind the 200 day MDA at 27000 or so, and now we're heading towards the 200 WEEKLY average according to my chart.

Using bargain-basement TA like MDAs in a pandemic is a joke. Hell, using them in trading at all is a joke, but especially in the middle of an event like this, which is prettymuch the definition of a black swan.
The mortality rate for old people with corona is around 8%. The average ago of a congressman is 60 and there are over 500 of them. How well you think those little blue and green lines you drew on a graph are gonna hold if a senator keels over dead from this thing?
03-10-2020 08:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 6 users Like SamuelBRoberts's post:
Lampwick, gework, Emancipator, Dismal Operator, John Michael Kane, Renzy
Foolsgo1d Offline
Peacock
******

Posts: 7,110
Joined: Apr 2014
Reputation: 27
Post: #45
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The industry and bank bailouts are being planned out right now by trump. Free money off the backs of the US tax payers. Trillions of dollars to save companies that should go under.

Too big to fail indeed. This debt will never be repaid and I am sure these bailouts are coming to Europe and other places. What a scam.
03-10-2020 01:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
One Dollar Pizza Offline
Banned

Posts: 67
Joined: Mar 2020
Post: #46
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-10-2020 01:37 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  The industry and bank bailouts are being planned out right now by trump. Free money off the backs of the US tax payers. Trillions of dollars to save companies that should go under.

Too big to fail indeed. This debt will never be repaid and I am sure these bailouts are coming to Europe and other places. What a scam.

Disgusting, I would have loved to see so many companies fail
03-10-2020 02:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Hansel Offline
Sparrow

Posts: 77
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 1
Post: #47
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
The previous several days has seen an unprecedented slaughter of the Dow that is so severe the momentum for further drops has been temporarily stopped. The market has now ended what I call the A wave of reduction and has entered the B wave, a temporary recovery that a lot of investors mistakenly think is the end of the market drop. But this is in fact the calm before the storm, a ploy by the big banks which flee the market after they short the stocks for one last time and noose the loose investors in the market in preparation for the final C wave drop. I predict this B wave will continue until mid April or May. If you want you can try to make some final profits but I advise you to short at early April.

The collapse of the global supply chain will be be evident by that time. Summer of 2020 is also the time where a massive wave of corporate bonds must be repaid, but since the US bonds has sucked up all the mobility in the market, unhealthy corporations such as the shale industry will find itself tethering at the edge yet again. This time it is unlikely the US has the capital to save it, with so many other corporations with a broken capital chain.
03-10-2020 02:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Hansel's post:
gework
joost Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 579
Joined: Oct 2015
Reputation: 7
Post: #48
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
^^ probably right. Stocks are rising 5% max, like it was profit taking (and bailing).
03-10-2020 02:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
gework Offline
Pelican
****
Gold Member

Posts: 1,551
Joined: Apr 2017
Reputation: 78
Post: #49
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
(03-09-2020 08:23 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Gework, Japan has negative interest rates and owns 75% of the Japan ETF market. If you had to guess, what are the mechanisms that the U.S. will use to prop the economy up? We are approaching 0% interest rates again, and the 30 year has gone below 1%, so I don't think quantitative easing is much of an option.

I think they will follow Japan.

Negative rates to stimulate economic activity. It will invoke lots of bad decisions, but will keep The US economy growing for another cycle.

Money printing to keep banks solvent and to fund a few years of gaps in the government budget.

It's also likely that Western central banks will start buying stocks in the next ten years. And I would expect indebted companies to get bailed out.

None of this will cause inflation as there will be no significant injection of cash into the economy. As the formula will likely be asset sales to a dollar safe haven, inaction would cause deflation. Considerable stimulus will be needed to keep inflation at a few percent.

The effect of all this is it props up bad markets. Any asset central banks buy takes on a hollowness to its value. It retains its values as long as the bank to maintain its purchases. You can see central bank maneuvers are not the drivers for speculation, not fundamentals. They can never let rates go up again, which leads to cheap money, which leads to bad consumer and business decisions. The effect is to slowly create a weaker economy that is already structurally flawed via aging in particular.

I think the crux of it is the level of indebtedness. On average Japanese pay about 10% of their income on the national debt; while Americans pay about 3%. But when you factor in all debt the US is at more like 15-20% and Japan at 25-30%.

The mechanism of debt is to send bills into the future, with interest. So the central bank mechanism is ultimately to steal from the future for the benefit of the present. With private debt you actually get something: money to grow a business, a house, products. But with government debt you are paying for the past consumption of bribed voters.

The death knell is when people en masse decide its no longer worth servicing the debt that has piled up for their standard of living. Again, they can take their own debt, but for the government debt they get nothing.

By 2030 Western countries could be up to 15% of the government budget being debt, while Japan will be 40%+ at that point. But Japan doesn't have a all the problems of Western countries, such as a growing mob of enraged socialists. The increasing squeeze is going to cause more socialists who are too used to getting things for nothing, trannies and all manner of other angry, disaffected groups.

Even with mounting debts with no chance of repayment the socialists will still be banning the drumb for open border with instant voting rights, free health care, free college and a multi-trillion dollar green new deal.

My take is the game will continue until people will be unwilling to burden the debt. Just as The Soviet Union went down when even the apparatchiks were unable to bare its soul destroying nature.

Quote:People in darkness do not want to come to the light lest they are exposed.
03-10-2020 02:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like gework's post:
Lampwick, Emancipator, Dismal Operator
El Chinito loco Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 4,739
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 73
Post: #50
RE: The 2020 Stock Market Crash Thread
Here's a weekly chart to show where we are at in relation to the 2018 correction. That big red line at the bottom is the 200 weekly MA. It's almost certain that the market will test that support level.

[Image: 2020-03-11-TOS-CHARTS.png]

Keep in mind i'm not a daytrader and i'm not into individual stock investments. I don't really care if the market shits the bed right now or not. My only concern is the intermediate and longer term trend.

If all the MA start to roll over hard and this turns full blown bear like in 2008 then there will be lots of money to be made on the way down.

People are already starting to 'sperg out about the market so it should be fun times.

For reference purposes here is what a full blown bear market looks like. I get very nostalgic looking at this particular time period.

[Image: 2020-03-11-TOS-CHARTS.png]
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2020 05:53 PM by El Chinito loco.)
03-10-2020 05:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like El Chinito loco's post:
Samseau, Emancipator, Mister Crowley
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 2 Invisible User(s), 3 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication