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Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
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Troller Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
"Only one in four real estate investors in Europe believes that the current market cycle will peak soon and that the initial rate of return on real estate will start to rise again. The overwhelming majority of respondents (75%) do not expect a turnaround until 2019."

http://europe-re.com/real-estate-investo...2019/64018
08-04-2017 07:10 PM
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Post: #77
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
I read the article in your link Troller. To me its a bullish sign that investors are bearish/conservative. If the majority of investors were raging bulls that would be the time to get worried.
08-05-2017 04:02 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Any new predictions? I've seen this coming up here and there, recently.
10-21-2017 03:32 PM
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Repo Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Many people are expecting a decline in the US around 2019 or 2020, maybe not a "crash", but a decline of sorts.

Recovery the last few years has been slower and gradual than previous recoveries, but non-mortgage consumer debt is increasing rapidly. Banks are already bumping up their reserves for credit cards losses, as delinquency rates are on the rise. Consumer delinquency is on the rise, despite the fact that overall employment isn't that bad. The simplified idea is that when job growth slows, delinquencies will already be on the rise, prompting a pullback in lending further agitating the decline.

Of course that is a ways off and there are things that can be done that can change our trajectory.
10-21-2017 05:41 PM
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Troller Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
High end real estate is crashing. Mostly targeted at wealthy foreigners for money laundering. This segment of real estate will have come down to national levels affordability. Chinese who sustained most of this market dried up. Since they are being scrutinized heavily. I heard Jinping spends his life in undergound tunnels because of fears of being killed. Chinese officials have to disguise liquor on water bottles. Since they are not allowed to drink expensive booze.
I don´t think luxury real estate is a falling knife. It will stop falling when nationals can afford it. Was overpriced from foreigners. The profit margins of developers will be reduced. But houses will still be sold.

Low and mid real estate will probably continue going up. Since the banks will more and more ease the requirements for loans. As soon as 100% financing home loans starts being advertised we are in the peak of the bubble. As for now there´s still time to inflate the bubble a little more.

Central banks actions are also to consider specially: End of QE, raising rates and fractional banking. There seems to be in motion for the 2019/2020 event. Will see.

I check this bear blog from time to time:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
10-21-2017 08:51 PM
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Laska Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
A crash in the stock market may come at the same time as housing or the dollar, but they can come independently as well. The reason why the huge expansion of credit hasn't resulted in profound inflation yet is because there isn't enough economic growth to put it to productive use.
10-21-2017 09:14 PM
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semibaron Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
The next major crash probably will be the last one for a very long time, because it will have such severe effects on the world economy.

This is because of 2 simple reasons:
1.) High national debt - governments simply won't have the financials to stabilize the economy
2.) Interconnected world - Let's say any random country in the EU or Japan collapses under its debt load / aging population. For example Italy.
Italy fails -> the fire spreads to Spain -> France -> Germany -> the whole world

Just because of this, central banks and governments will do everything to prevent or postpone the next crash as long as possible. Preventing the next crash means to keep interest rates low (so interest payments on national debt keep low). When interest rates are low, insurances and bank savings don't yield any meaningful ROI. Consequently people will continue to invest in the housing- / stock- / cryptocurrency market.

Interest rates will stay low until the next crash happens. Because all market actors are working to prevent the next crash, it is still years or decades ahead.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2017 04:48 AM by semibaron.)
10-22-2017 04:45 AM
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Kingfisher
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Post: #83
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Like I said before, I still think possibly 2018 or 2019 will be a mid cycle slowdown (i.e. mini crash) but the real crash is still a long way away. Of course you can never be sure of what will happen in the future and its just my opinion.

In Australia the real estate boom has already started to shift from Sydney and L:Melbourne to the smaller cities just as I predicted. The boom still has a long time to run.
10-22-2017 04:58 AM
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semibaron Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(10-22-2017 04:58 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  In Australia the real estate boom has already started to shift from Sydney and L:Melbourne to the smaller cities just as I predicted. The boom still has a long time to run.


Same in Germany. 2nd and 3rd tier cities are now the top investing destinations.
10-22-2017 07:32 AM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(10-22-2017 04:58 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  Like I said before, I still think possibly 2018 or 2019 will be a mid cycle slowdown (i.e. mini crash) but the real crash is still a long way away. Of course you can never be sure of what will happen in the future and its just my opinion.

In Australia the real estate boom has already started to shift from Sydney and L:Melbourne to the smaller cities just as I predicted. The boom still has a long time to run.

I generally agree with this. The zerohedge article on long term index investing and why it is a sort of fool's propaganda is interesting, given the graphs and arithmetic on the dips, time, and resets that may occur depending on when you get in or out.

As he states, I agree with a 30% pullback. I'm with Aussie Sucks in that a really big one might come down mid next decade, which is incidentally when most boomers in the US also hit the peak age for health issues, pension issues, and SSA problems which are all tied.
10-23-2017 04:49 PM
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Post: #86
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
^ It's unlikely that slow and expected demographic shifts will have anything to do with economic or stock market upheavals.

You can't just go and buy retirement home or healthcare stocks because "boomers are retiring". JNJ trades at 25x earnings for a reason...
10-23-2017 05:17 PM
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(10-23-2017 05:17 PM)christpuncher Wrote:  ^ It's unlikely that slow and expected demographic shifts will have anything to do with economic or stock market upheavals.

You can't just go and buy retirement home or healthcare stocks because "boomers are retiring". JNJ trades at 25x earnings for a reason...

I see where you are going, BUT they can bring up crises (pension crisis) happening all around, all at the same time

Do you deny that the probability of a crash increases with increasing gov't debt, whichever type or all types?
10-24-2017 11:10 PM
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DVY Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
I think returns will be about 4-6% over the next decade compounded. Not great. Not bad.

A lot of cheap debt has been floated so it makes sense to buy back stock at 6% roi and sell debt for 3%.

This isn't financial engineering per say so much as good business.

I love taking cheap long term debt and punching it into a roi plus small return. Your talking about clean arbitrage.

I recently purchased a house and after the down payment I'm cash flow neutral if I were to rent it out (small + actually ). I'd rather hold a property than paper so there is little choice ATM. Yields in the bank are anemic (below inflwtion)....so it's between a rock and hard place. I'll take real estate (inflation neutral) + 1-2% any day instead of holding cash

WIA- For most of men, our time being masters of our own fate, kings in our own castles is short. Even those of us in the game will eventually succumb to ease of servitude rather than deal with the malaise of solitude
10-25-2017 12:54 AM
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Cane Toad Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Financial markets are driven by the same fundamentals around the world ie; risk v return, supply v demand, cyclical in the long term, random in the short term, subject to entirely unpredictable shocks and irrationality etc.

The bottom line is that they are unpredictable (unless you have insider knowledge - but that's a different thing).

However, it is fairly certain that the current low interest rate environment has driven up certain asset values as a result of easier debt financing (think Australian property) and the reason for the low interest rate environment has been the lack of growth drivers in the world economy over the past years.

If we trust the cyclical nature of economics, then growth will return (probably starting to happen now) which in turn will drive interest rates up.

Rising interest rates are going to be a problem for highly geared asset investors (aside from any other shocks), so risk adverse investors will start to move out of asset classes most at risk.

The money will move into growth areas, typically shares. This is already happening eg; the US markets are already very high.

So looking towards the future, it looks like shares will be a good bet as interest rates rise (interest rates being a good indicator of growth).

However, the only certainty is that when we wake up one morning and read about the next collapse...half of us will have been right, and the other half will have been wrong.
10-25-2017 02:12 AM
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Post: #90
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Looking back I was pretty much spot on about everything I said in this thread. Although that being said simple probability tells you that given how infrequent market crashes are that a bullish or neutral prediction is more likely to be right than a bearish prediction.
01-28-2020 05:20 AM
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kel Offline
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Post: #91
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
That was in 2017, so we're now "years away". Do you think a correction is coming this year? Next year?
01-28-2020 03:17 PM
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Post: #92
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Kel there may be some sort of correction this year, who knows. But I strongly doubt that there will be a major crash or financial panic this year or next. I think it is very unlikely. For the moment I continue to be broadly bullish with a buy the dips kind of mentality (albeit more focused on individual stocks than indices).
01-29-2020 02:23 PM
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PixelFree Offline
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Post: #93
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
I think the globohomo elites will (at least try to) crash the economy and blame it on Trump.

They don't have a candidate and are getting desperate.
01-29-2020 10:31 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #94
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(01-28-2020 03:17 PM)kel Wrote:  That was in 2017, so we're now "years away". Do you think a correction is coming this year? Next year?

A recession and a correction is highly likely after the U.S. election in 2021. President Trump will do all that he can to avoid such occurrences this year. As PF, noted, however, the deep state may try its best to create a recession and a correction before the election.

A major financial panic (versus a simple recession and correction) is due in the range of 2027-2029.

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-60358...pid2053184
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2020 10:30 PM by Tail Gunner.)
01-30-2020 10:29 PM
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Castillo Offline
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Post: #95
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
“We never saw it coming” will be the response of the naysayers when the next crash happens, just as they did in 2008. The next crisis is a global debt crisis that is already here, but the Fed / BOE / ECB keep pumping money into the markets to male it look like everything is OK and it’s “business as usual”. Smart people however know this, and have taken precautions to protect their assets and businesses going forwards. Educate yourself rather than listening to bankers (I used to be one but got fed up of their bs)...

https://www.icis.com/chemicals-and-the-e...bt-crisis/
01-31-2020 01:54 PM
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Post: #96
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Now is a great time to buy property in Australia (in cities other than Sydney and Melbourne). This is because mortgage rates are so low that many properties are now cash flow neutral or cash flow positive in some cases. I might start a thread on this topic in the coming week.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2020 03:48 AM by Australia Sucks.)
02-02-2020 03:44 AM
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Loki131 Offline
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Post: #97
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(01-29-2020 10:31 PM)PixelFree Wrote:  I think the globohomo elites will (at least try to) crash the economy and blame it on Trump.

They don't have a candidate and are getting desperate.

Most likely a black swan event like the coronavirus mutating to affect non-chinese, or war, would crash the economy. They would hold off until after the election though. If Sanders won (I dont think its likely), we would see a market crash immediately and assets leaving the US right away.
02-06-2020 12:28 PM
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sonoran_ Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
It seems like the market sentiments amongst the population is increasing to a level of thrill using the wall street cheat sheet as the emotional guideline.

Many of the common stories, reactions and emotions present during bitcoins run up to $20000 are starting to come into the stock market. This only means that people should take careful heed as the top wouldnt be too far away.

Stories that signify a market top:
- taxi drivers, barbers start talking about what theyre buying and investing in
- Literal teenagers on Tik Tok are showing how theyre making money from stocks, TSLA being a good example of a blow off top this week.
-News stories and magazine covers glorying the economy and how a recession is "impossible"

The trend is still up, so better to play with the trend rather than against, but when these signs start showing up, euphoria cant be too too far away.
02-06-2020 05:45 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #99
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
(02-06-2020 05:45 PM)sonoran_ Wrote:  It seems like the market sentiments amongst the population is increasing to a level of thrill using the wall street cheat sheet as the emotional guideline.

Many of the common stories, reactions and emotions present during bitcoins run up to $20000 are starting to come into the stock market. This only means that people should take careful heed as the top wouldnt be too far away.

Stories that signify a market top:
- taxi drivers, barbers start talking about what theyre buying and investing in
- Literal teenagers on Tik Tok are showing how theyre making money from stocks, TSLA being a good example of a blow off top this week.
-News stories and magazine covers glorying the economy and how a recession is "impossible"

The trend is still up, so better to play with the trend rather than against, but when these signs start showing up, euphoria cant be too too far away.

You forgot to list absurd market valuations, such as Tesla, which makes less than 400,000 vehicles and lost $745 million in 2019, but which now has a market valuation higher than Ford, General Motors, and Nissan, when those three companies sell more than 14 million vehicles annually.

Tesla also has a market valuation higher than the Volkswagen Group, which is the largest automobile conglomerate in the world and owns other brands such as Porsche, Bugatti, Audi, Bentley, Skoda, and Lamborghini. In total, Volkswagen Group sells more than 11 million vehicles per year -- and earned more than $13 billion in 2018, and will likely exceed that figure when it reports its fourth quarter numbers for 2019. This makes it thirty times bigger than Tesla in terms of vehicle sales. Yet, Volkwagen Group’s stock price values the entire company at just $95 billion versus about $136 billion for Tesla. To say that market sentiment is untethered from reality is a vast understatement.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2020 06:16 PM by Tail Gunner.)
02-06-2020 06:13 PM
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sonoran_ Offline
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Post: #100
RE: Why stock and Property market "crashes" are still years away
Right.

All of these financially shit tier companies like Peloton, Casper, We work, etc. all coming with IPO's with billion $ valuations.

It is almost like the ICO's of crypto, but atleast these companies have revenue lol.

It is crazy seeing the similarities between the 2017 crypto bubble and the present. The only difference in timing is that crypto market cycles move at 4x the speed of stocks.
I was too young to have witnessed the 2008 or any bubble prior.
02-06-2020 06:21 PM
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