Read The Forum Rules: We have a clear set of rules to keep the forum running smoothly. Click here to review them.

Post Reply 
The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Author Message
[email protected] Offline
Pelican
****

Posts: 1,362
Joined: Feb 2016
Reputation: 21
Post: #8676
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Normally would be buying all-in right now with but it seems like have interesting times ahead of us and it would be prudent to be liquid with cash. Just DCA'ing with less than 1500 AUD per month.

Recently, I've been watching this ex-Goldman hedge fund manager called Raoul Pal. When it comes to projections he seems to be the smartest guy I've come across in a long time. In February he said BTC is reaching it's former ATH within 12 to 18 months. He accurately predicted oil falling below $30 and the recession/depression. He's primarily invested in bonds, gold and Bitcoin and he said the latter will have the best return. Worth watching:




Why so many cultures think the Jewish people are nefarious:
https://propertarianism.com/2018/08/19/w...nefarious/
03-24-2020 02:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like [email protected]'s post:
redbeard, Kangaroo, gework
redbeard Online
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,049
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 74
Post: #8677
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-23-2020 08:12 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(03-23-2020 07:04 PM)redbeard Wrote:  Adding here.

Perhaps you are just teasing?

Haven't heard from you for a while redbeard. Hopefully, your hand has remained strong through recent times, and perhaps you have been able to acquire more BTC through the ups and downs....

Surely, the whole BTC price dynamics can remain tricky and uncertain, including seemingly system-wide meltdowns that even cause the questioning of maintaining allocations in seemingly more risky and volatile assets, like bitcoin.

Not teasing, love me some four digit Bitcoin.

Still holding. Been busy as heck but adding to my stack. Only buying enough BTC that I'm comfortable holding for life.

BTC volatility is wild, but I'm a 2018 bear market veteran. Hard to make me flinch.

"Every saint has a past, every sinner a future."
03-24-2020 07:45 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like redbeard's post:
JayJuanGee, Sooth
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8678
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-24-2020 02:55 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  Normally would be buying all-in right now with but it seems like have interesting times ahead of us and it would be prudent to be liquid with cash. Just DCA'ing with less than 1500 AUD per month.

Recently, I've been watching this ex-Goldman hedge fund manager called Raoul Pal. When it comes to projections he seems to be the smartest guy I've come across in a long time. In February he said BTC is reaching it's former ATH within 12 to 18 months. He accurately predicted oil falling below $30 and the recession/depression. He's primarily invested in bonds, gold and Bitcoin and he said the latter will have the best return. Worth watching:




Seems crazy to be describing certain people as having a kind of guru status; when it both seems that there are a lot of smart people out there, but none of them know where the markets are going with any kind of precision, just the assignment of probabilities.... and some folks get the probabilities a lot closer than others, whether we are talking about short term swings or longer term inclinations.

Personally, I bit the bullet, recently too in terms of tweaking my incremental buy/sell orders in order to cause for some feelings of greater liquidity.. not BIG tweaks, but just enough for me to feel a wee bit more comfortable overall, and especially preparing for any further and outrageous downward BTC price moves, in the event that they happen.

Since about May 2019, I had considered that the longer correction had finished and BTC had return to the bull cycle.. Of course, returning to the bull cycle would not indicate that BTC was not going to have a variety of potentially long and even deep corrections that were ambiguous in terms of their resolution, but at the same time, since I continue to attempt to play bitcoin in terms of the longer plays, I had considered any kind of price moves since May 2019 to error considerably on the side of stacking sats and stacking my profits in BTC.

When we had our correction down to $3,850, I was only slightly more prepared for that than I was in November 2018 when the BTC price got cut nearly in half with its drop from lower $6ks to lower $3ks within a matter of weeks. So, this time around, I had a wee bit more dollars available when we got down to $3,850 to be able to take advantage of lower corrections if they were to happen... even though I was surely expecting that odds were starting to stack against sub $5k prices, even though such sub $5k prices ended up happening anyhow.

Whether the BTC price bottom is really "in" this time at $3,850, is still difficult to know, and of course, any guy who has been in BTC for a decently long period of time, should be in a bit of a better position in regards to knowing where he stands in regards to his bitcoin allocation, relative to other asset classes. While, at the same time, severe macro corrections, do appear to have a decent tendency to strike fear into what had seemed to be even the more staunch of BTC HODLers... and surely, a little bit of short term BTC recovery that had appeared to decouple from traditional markets likely brings some confidence to the longer term BTC hodlers... including some decent confidence that even with our recent extreme dippening to $3,850, that might be explained partly by the extreme market plays on Bitmex creating overly short term dragging on BTC prices in the short term (and surely arbitrage opportunities), BTC prices have not even really deviated too much from currently persuasive BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles.
03-24-2020 10:06 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Stats Offline
Sparrow

Posts: 92
Joined: May 2018
Reputation: 0
Post: #8679
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.
03-25-2020 10:45 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8680
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-25-2020 10:45 AM)Stats Wrote:  SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.

You should be providing better evidence than that, Stats, rather than just pure baseless speculation.

You might want to start with looking into the Bitmex contribution to the March 12th BTC price crash. Or maybe you would like to look into how much Tether is printed?

There are a lot of baseless and meaningless theories out there in regards to fractional reserve systems on bitcoin exchanges, so probably if you were a bit more specific, Stats, then at least we might get some better ideas regarding whether our current situation in bitcoin, regarding fractional reserve issues, is different or worse now than it was a few weeks ago.

Surely, there would be a lot of reasons to cause fear in the BTC markets because it seems that BTC might be breaking away from any short term correlation that it was accused of having to traditional markets and/or gold (not that those purported correlation claims should have been very persuasive, anyhow).

Almost always, there has been suggestions for guys to NOT to keep too many coins on exchanges, but part of price discovery is to trade coins, and sometimes money (or hedging of bets) can be made exchanging coins on exchanges.

Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?
03-25-2020 11:13 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
redbeard Online
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,049
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 74
Post: #8681
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-25-2020 10:45 AM)Stats Wrote:  SO heard a rummer that a lot of exchanges over sold btc, as in sold derivites while not actually having enough actual coins, and that this will cause a short term crash in the next couple days. any one have any insight on this? now would be a good time to move coins OFF exchanges into your own wallets.

This is why I've stopped following the "crypto news" and subsequently posting in the BTC thread. It's not that I'm a hater, there's just wayyyyyy too much noise in this space. 99.9% of it is irrelevant, unproven, or just plain ignorant.

Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.

"Every saint has a past, every sinner a future."
03-25-2020 04:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes redbeard's post:
JayJuanGee
Stats Offline
Sparrow

Posts: 92
Joined: May 2018
Reputation: 0
Post: #8682
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-25-2020 11:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [quote='Stats' pid='2072662' dateline='1585151125']
Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?

No and I believe these rummers to most likely be false at this point. I did move the fractions of btc I had on exchages to personal wallet. My plan is to slightly increase my btc hodl with some of the money i pulled out of the stock market today.
(This post was last modified: 03-26-2020 11:38 PM by Stats.)
03-26-2020 11:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8683
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-26-2020 11:37 PM)Stats Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 11:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 10:45 AM)Stats Wrote:  ......
Do you have anything more specific, Stats? What are you doing with your BTC? Did you sell them all at $4k-ish? To the extent you had any?

No and I believe these rummers to most likely be false at this point. I did move the fractions of btc I had on exchages to personal wallet. My plan is to slightly increase my btc hodl with some of the money i pulled out of the stock market today.

O.k. Fair enough.

There is no kind of sure way to figure out a balance of allocations in these kinds of matters in terms of how much to allocate to each of the asset classes of your chosen investments, and surely your level of calm or panic might involve the extent to which you might have been over-allocated in one asset or another prior to the "crash" of last week.

As you likely realize there have been all kinds of theories out there regarding whether BTC is correlated to traditional asset classes based on short term price moves, and for me, that evidence had been opportunistically argued at best and really does not seem to play out too well if we attempt to look at longer time horizons.

Of course, there are all kinds of questions regarding how sustainable our little equities bounce of the past few days is going to last.. and then of course, we have some other additional dynamics in bitcoin that are playing out, both in terms of the halvening that is coming in about a month and a half and a kind of unexpected precipitous drop in the BTC hashrate, that may or may not last, but difficulty does adjust every two weeks, too in order to hopefully compensate for short-term hashrate changes.
03-26-2020 11:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Freebird Flying Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 287
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 5
Post: #8684
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-25-2020 04:05 PM)redbeard Wrote:  [quote='Stats' pid='2072662' dateline='1585151125']


Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.

Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?

I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.

03-28-2020 07:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
redbeard Online
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,049
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 74
Post: #8685
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 07:00 AM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 04:05 PM)redbeard Wrote:  [quote='Stats' pid='2072662' dateline='1585151125']


Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.

Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?

Put simply Bitcoin is king because:

1. "Immaculate Conception" i.e. Satoshi Nakamoto
2. Highest, widespread liquidity
3. Simplest, oldest code
4. Most hashrate
5. Best branding
6. First mover advantage

This is irrespective of price. No altcoin will ever reach BTC's dominance due to the reasons above.

Quote:I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.

This is akin to "I thought I would buy Silver because it's around 85% off the high but gold is only around 66% off." Is % drawdown indicative of future returns? No way.

"Every saint has a past, every sinner a future."
03-28-2020 07:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like redbeard's post:
Freebird Flying, JayJuanGee, Going strong
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8686
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 07:00 AM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  
(03-25-2020 04:05 PM)redbeard Wrote:  [quote='Stats' pid='2072662' dateline='1585151125']


Once you reach enlightenment that Bitcoin is the only coin that matters, there's not much reason to pay attention. Just DCA and chill.

Is the enlightenment about BTC being the only coin that matters, because it's on a bull run?

What about Ethereum?

I thought I would buy Ethereum because it's around 85% off the high but BTC is only around 66% off.

Seems to me that you are getting off the topic of this thread when you are wanting to tout the purported advantages of ethereum in this thread. Probably the extent that you want to dive into possible benefits of investing into ethereum, whether short term or long term, you should take that to another thread or create another thread.

There have likely been multiple times in this thread in which several guys have provided overview reasons why bitcoin is a superior investment, especially if you are either talking about long term and/or being able to go to sleep (or go into a coma for 5-10 years and feel comfortable when you come out of the coma you have decent chances that your investment would still be good).

Many of the shitcoins, whether we are referring to ethereum or the more than 2,000 other shitcoins out there (a decent number of those 2,000 other coins are built on ethereum), are largely just sucking off the teet of bitcoin. So, for example, bitcoin provides an overall protocol level of security and infrastructure that makes it difficult to attack or to change in any kind of way, whether we are talking about changes to the rules of how it is created or operates or individual transactions, and sure bitcoin is risky by itself because it could get attacked by the state or my financial institutions, and since the various other shitcoins depend upon the ongoing security of bitcoin, they are risk upon risk.

You already have a risky asset like bitcoin, and then you add another level of risk by getting involved with some other shitcoin that largely just correlates to the success of bitcoin. Yeah, of course, there may be some short term pumpenings of those other projects, as you seem to be suggesting is your investment thesis for ethereum, and you might be able to time it correctly in the short term to make a profit, as long as something with the smoke and mirrors, that is ethereum does not get fucked up along the way, you could make a killing, in the short term, but that still does not mean that it is a good idea to devolve into that kind of topic in this thread... because this is NOT the how do I get rich thread, it is supposed be somehow related to bitcoin topics, and how does a guy invest or allocate bitcoin into his investment portfolio (or not) and various information related to bitcoin to help better understand bitcoin.

There is all kinds of discussions of various bitcoin killers out there, including coming from the ethereum camp, and over the years, some guys, including redbeard apparently, have come to conclude that a lot of those better than bitcoin proponents, or otherwise bitcoin naysayers or bitcoin bashers, are attempting to suggest that there is something deficient with bitcoin, but in the end, if you are talking about the bitcoin fundamentals, including seeing the ongoing building of the various network effects on a protocol layer like bitcoin, you would likely realize that for any coin to really have any kind of meaningful possibility for success, they cannot just do one or things supposedly better than bitcoin, they would likely need to be 10x or more better than bitcoin overall in order to be anywhere close to being able to meaningfully take over kingdaddy.

So, surely, you can get distracted by various pump and dump nonsense of a lot of the shitcoins, and pray for another altcoin season, like that was seen in 2017, and maybe it will happen or maybe it will not, yet bitcoin remains a more solid long term investment... because it is the base upon which the various shitcoins are even able to have their various temporary pumps and play their smoke and mirror "better than bitcoin" propagandas.

By the way, you might be able to time some kind of in and out for various shitcoins, and I recall in 2017, there were lots of folks investing into a variety of shitcoins, and hardly allocating anything into bitcoin, and it is quite likely that at some point they should have gotten out of the various shitcoins and bitcoin continues to have decently strong investment theses related to both holding its value and even ongoing upwards potential through price prediction models such as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

By the way, good luck with your figuring out what the fuck ethereum is, exactly, and the supposed transition from 1.0 to 2.0, and sure maybe you will get lucky in terms of that whole transitioning being accompanied by ongoing ethereum pumpenings rather than fragmentation and mere additional risk that may not pay off... and with that, you might want to limit some of your exposure while keeping a larger portion in bitcoin, even though you are trying to frame ethereum as if it were somehow similar to bitcoin, when bitcoin already has a functioning system that does not need to change for it to continue to function, and ethereum has been touting their stupid ass smoke and mirrors complicated and shifting narrative transition ever since it got started as a scam project in 2014/15-ish.



Edit:

Redbeard said it much better than me.... and more succinctly and nicer too. Blush
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 08:11 AM by JayJuanGee.)
03-28-2020 08:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like JayJuanGee's post:
Going strong, redbeard
MichaelWitcoff Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 977
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 19
Post: #8687
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.

Host of "The Brother Augustine Podcast" and best-selling author of On The Masons And Their Lies.
03-28-2020 06:31 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like MichaelWitcoff's post:
Tail Gunner, Freebird Flying
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,440
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 56
Post: #8688
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 06:31 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.

"Price is What You Pay. Value is What You Get." Warren Buffet.
03-28-2020 06:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Tail Gunner's post:
Freebird Flying, MichaelWitcoff
Freebird Flying Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 287
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 5
Post: #8689
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it. For a casual person, it's quite risky to bother with. Would I want my Mom or family member in? No way!

I doubt they will keep buying it after it goes up to 20K, that's where the suckers come in and get burned again (in theory). I can't see buying it ever if it's over 10K for a BTC. At the current price I see some value if I can get someone to come in later and pay more for it so I can put the money to actual use.

I've even made a couple of sizable errors dealing with BTC, lost a couple of them. There are hackers out there and such, which for a technical person is fine, but for your casual person, not good.

03-28-2020 08:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Freebird Flying's post:
Tactician
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8690
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 06:31 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  Bitcoin isn’t a long-term investment because it’s not an investment at all. Its price is based on nothing beyond what others are willing to pay for it, and as such, is not worth anything inherently the way that a stock in a company is. I wish I’d listened to Warren Buffett about this years ago instead of getting caught up in the hype.

Sounds as if you are limiting yourself in terms of your own perspective.

If you manage your own investments, you can allocate them in any portion of your portfolio as you wish, and you can choose any timeline that you believe is suitable to your circumstances.

In the event that you reconsider the allocation or the timeframe, then you can tweak your investments to your own choosing.

The fact that you choose to consider bitcoin as NOT being an investment seems to be a product of your own lacking in perspective.

Initially, in late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, I had considered my investment was going to be at least one year, and I set a budget for myself to invest for 6 months, and to reassess at the end of the first 6 months, which brought me to about May or June 2014. In about May 2014, I extended my investment timeframe and budget for another 6 months, which brought me to the end of 2014, and at that point, I decided that I had reached my allocation goal and to merely dollar cost average in a way that largely maintained my determined allocation.

There have been a few times that i had tweaked my BTC investment plan, and of course, I have the authority to manage my own BTC portfolio and other aspects of my investment portfolio, including deciding whether to add or subtract from my position or to change any other allocation proportions of the bitcoin part as compared with other assets and currencies that I own (or control).

There can be a lot of questions in respect to how to value any investment that you make, including whether you have accurate and/or adequate information about the investment that you are making or if you believe that you have tailored your approach in a way that is suitable to a variety of your own circumstances, including your cash flow, your other investments, your risk tolerance, your view of bitcoin versus your other investments, your timeline and your skills, time and abilities to research and manage your holdings, including tweaking from time to time, if you deem warranted.

You come off as bitter, MichaelWitcoff, and perhaps overinvested.. maybe you should have listened to warren buffet, if you believe your circumstances are similar to his, including the fact that he is likely not going to be around much longer, so who gives any shits, from his perspective, about whether bitcoin is a good long term investment or not.
03-28-2020 08:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8691
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.

You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? Sure, it is easy to complain when BTC prices are down or if you may have had different expectations regarding where the price should be at this point in time. If you had guarantees in mind in regards to where BTC price should be at this particular time, and there happens to be under performance, then that might be more of a reflection on you rather than saying anything material and meaningful about bitcoin.



(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  For a casual person, it's quite risky to bother with. Would I want my Mom or family member in? No way!

Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.

As I have repeated on a large number of occasions in this thread, my recommendation has been for guys to tailor their investment into BTC to their own situation, and to consider a 1% to 10% allocation as a starting point. That is 1% to 10% of the value of their quasi-liquid investment assets.

Of course, any guy who would be more conservative in his views of bitcoin or even in his risk tolerance, should choose at the lower end of the range, and of course, every guy is responsible for his own choices, in this direction and might choose to either invest lower than 1% or not to invest, but seems to me that a 1% investment can be quite tolerable and there should be meaningful ways to offset some of the risk when it is only that proportion of a guys total quasi-liquid investment assets.

So, it should not matter if you are a mom, a relative, or some other possible novice; however, surely some aspects of bitcoin do require more learning, yet there are a decent number of people who invest into bitcoin and just maintain their investment with a third party such as keeping their BTC on coinbase, which has its own disadvantages, but if you are investing on a long enough timeline, such as longer than 4 years, but maybe even 10 years or more, then you can learn along the way.

If we are talking about grandma (or even someone like warren buffet), then BTC might not be a good investment for them, both in terms of timeline, but also that they might not be willing to learn about how to hold their own private keys.



(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  I doubt they will keep buying it after it goes up to 20K, that's where the suckers come in and get burned again (in theory).

People said a very similar thing in 2015/2016. I was around during that time, and I was participating, and when prices were stuck in the mid $200s for most of 2015, and also got stuck below $500 for the first half of 2016, I saw all kinds of discussions of the HODLers that would be selling their bitcoin in the sub $1k and even supra $1k price territory, because their little minds could not imagine BTC prices going past the previous ATH in late 2013 of $1,163. So, yeah, we had three years of people waiting for a new ATH, and were convinced that everyone would be selling their BTC.

There were a sufficient number of people, including yours truly, who were suggesting that it would not be a good idea to sell your BTC in that old ATH price range because it was a kind of no man's land, and in the end, you can look for yourself and see that we did not stick around those circa-$1k prices for very long, when we went above them in early 2017 and then revisited them in March 2017, and then ended up leaving those $1k prices behind forever, and only to be talked about revisiting them over and over and over between 2017 and present, and the closest that we have gotten, so far is in the lower $3ks, and even that did not last for very long.

So, yeah, maybe we will visit $3ks again. I am not saying that we will not, but it is far from guaranteed. We frequently see a lot of negativism, bitcoin bashing and bullshit spreading about bitcoin being broken or inadequate in one way or another, but it seems quite likely that those naysaying talking points and negativism about bitcoin are likely going to play out in similar ways as they have in previous times, with a lot of people failing/refusing to invest enough and waiting/hoping for lower BTC prices that never end up materializing.


(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  I can't see buying it ever if it's over 10K for a BTC.

There are likely going to be plenty of people buying above $10k and including plenty of people buying all the way up to $50k or $100k or whatever price BTC ends up going (again, no guarantees, but surely seems that it is within reasonable possibilities). So, it is up to you, regarding your investment strategy in connection with BTC, to the extent that you have any.


(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  At the current price I see some value if I can get someone to come in later and pay more for it so I can put the money to actual use.

Well, at least you are willing to concede some aspects of possible upwards BTC price movements from our current price.

Of course, you are likely discounting some of the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles, but that is your choice if you want to discount or ignore the models or even fail refuse to understand what they are based upon.


(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  I've even made a couple of sizable errors dealing with BTC, lost a couple of them.

Lot's of people make mistakes, and the longer that you are in, the more you could end up making mistakes. Sometimes it is possible to learn without making mistakes, but sometimes mistakes help to make the learning sink in a bit better.


(03-28-2020 08:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  There are hackers out there and such, which for a technical person is fine, but for your casual person, not good.

Of course there are a lot of possible attack vectors, including one of the most common forms of hackers is sims card swaps, so every guy who has bitcoin has to be careful to guard his bitcoin accounts and to protect the passwords. Many of those hacking methods are finding vulnerabilities in some of the phone systems, and bitcoin is an attractive target because it is hard to reverse once the hackers get your coins sent... or once they get into one of your accounts, and if they are able to send your coins, then you will lose those coins. Lots of incentives for hackers to be innovative in terms of dealing with bitcoin because of its value and because of its irreversibility once they get it.

Just for clarity of repetition, bitcoin has not been hacked, but account holders do get hacked, and if they do not take adequate safeguards, they could lose all of their coins, which would suck whether it is a small number of coins are a large number of coins, yet of course, the more coins that any guys have the more efforts that should be spent in ensuring that they are secure.
03-28-2020 08:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes JayJuanGee's post:
Freebird Flying
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,440
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 56
Post: #8692
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.

Well, there you go. You just admitted that BitCoin is not an investment.

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future. A speculation is a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing all or most of its value, but with the expectation of a significant gain. Notice how the definition for investment does not include the word "risk." Of course, every investment carries some level of risk. But the potential of losing most of the principal investment amount is largely what differentiates investing from speculating. Cryptos are speculative assets due to their relatively short existence in the financial world, an absence of sound regulation, hacking and other technological risks, and the many unknowns surrounding trading patterns.
03-28-2020 09:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
jeffreyjerpp
Freebird Flying Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 287
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 5
Post: #8693
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [quote='Freebird Flying' pid='2074030' dateline='1585444047']
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.

"You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? "



I think a lot of people who came in later are down quite a bit. That's why I say that. I usually hold my investments for 3 to 5 years so I shouldn't judge the price at this point until we see where it's at after a five year period off the highs.

You may very well be correct. There a lot of talented investors who believe bitcoin will be huge in the future.

I don't mind owning some of it at the current price levels, but if you wan to HODL it, dollar cost average makes some sense to me.

If someone had 50K to invest (or whatever amount you would like to choose), would you suggest to put that in at once, over a one year period, or 3 year period? Or does it depend on the price?

For me, the value of Bitcoin I see it as a store of value, like digital gold.

What would you say is the other values of Bitcoin?

And how would it make sense for someone to buy in at a level as high as 50 thousand dollars and hold that at sometime in the future?

Thanks!

(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 09:12 PM by Freebird Flying.)
03-28-2020 09:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
MichaelWitcoff Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 977
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 19
Post: #8694
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
You’re talking about Bitcoin as if it’s a real investment-worthy asset, like stocks or real estate, which grow in proportion to the increase in their value. That’s the only time it makes sense to talk about long-term time horizons, to give them time to reach their potential. What is Bitcoin growing into? What does it produce? What causes the price to go up or down?

A. Nothing,
B. Nothing,
C. Speculation and what people think others are willing to pay.

Hence why I don’t consider it a real investment - there is no growth in intrinsic value that could reliably and proportionally cause the price to rise. And it’s clearly a terrible hedge against stock market corrections, which everyone claimed it was going to be. “Invest” if you want but I hope you consider these points.

Host of "The Brother Augustine Podcast" and best-selling author of On The Masons And Their Lies.
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 09:34 PM by MichaelWitcoff.)
03-28-2020 09:33 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8695
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 09:05 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Sure, bitcoin is risky. It is a paradigm shifting asset class, and likely because it is so different, it remains a likely investment opportunity of a lifetime, if you figure out how to play it to your advantage. Again, of course, nothing is guaranteed.

Well, there you go. You just admitted that BitCoin is not an investment.

Again, another person who seems to want to get caught up in semantics.

Did I not already explain why I consider that any guys ways of buying bitcoin can be structured in ways that would be an investment, so the fact that it is a certain kind of investment or that some guys might structure it differently or some guys might speculate on it does not change the overall practice that I am describing which is largely NOT much different from other kinds of investments, whether I invest in gold, or property, or equities, or bonds, or bank interest bearing accounts (foreign currencies), I can choose my level of allocation and the time that I want to be invested, while having personal discretion regarding any of those aspects.



(03-28-2020 09:05 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future.

A speculation is a financial transaction that has a substantial risk of losing all or most of its value, but with the expectation of a significant gain.

Notice how the definition for investment does not include the word "risk."

O.k. I will try to play with your definitions. Does it matter? Seems like you are attempting to make a distinction without any kind of meaning and material difference when put into actual practice. Because speculation and investment can be overlying spectrum dynamics in which each asset or currency will have varying kinds of risks, various kinds of possibility for price appreciation or stability and various kinds of expectations to generate income/appreciation. Their risks, price appreciation or income generation potentials may correlate or not with each other, and those assessments are going to vary over time and likely vary from one person to another based on his own personal financial circumstances and may (will likely) change through time.


(03-28-2020 09:05 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Of course, every investment carries some level of risk. But the potential of losing most of the principal investment amount is largely what differentiates investing from speculating.

You can limit yourself in those kinds of conceptual ways if you like. That is your choice, and also seemingly your buddy MichaelWitcoff's choice to make those kinds of conceptualizations or self-imposed/self-restricting limitations.


(03-28-2020 09:05 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Cryptos are speculative assets due to their relatively short existence in the financial world, an absence of sound regulation, hacking and other technological risks, and the many unknowns surrounding trading patterns.

I am going to presume that you are talking about bitcoin, since we are in the bitcoin thread, but you remain both afraid to use the word and you want to talk in generalities... since you don't seem to appreciate the difference between bitcoin and other cryptos.. which I have already addressed.

Anyhow, I am going to presume that you are talking about bitcoin, and yes, bitcoin has a short period of existence, only less than 11.5 years since the release of the white paper, and slightly more than 11 years since it has been mining (or operational) and maybe only slightly less than 10 years since it had some kind of market price, which was very inconsistent in the first couple of years, and maybe we could assert that markets did not really start to mature around bitcoin until 2012 and thereafter and increasing avenues of liquidation and increasing kinds of markets developing thereafter.

Yes, there are also some regulatory uncertainties and also a lot of world variance in regards to bitcoin's regulation, but even regulation uncertainties have come a decently long distance since USA government hearings in late 2013, but still a bit of a fluid situation that contains some risk, of course, but that does not mean that it is not an investment.

For example, there are risks with our current macro environment regarding the value of your money since money printer go brrrrrrr, which causes repercussions across a lot of asset classes in uncertain ways. Any emergent asset class or category is likely to have additional risks that could cause them to be either under valued or over valued, but so fucking what? We have asset classes with different kinds of risks and higher or lower levels of risk, and even the dollar has risks, even though in these current times, the dollar seems to be gaining in strength even while there are plans to print it into infinity, nearly. But, down the road, that infinite printing has uncertainties regarding how it is going to play out in terms of the dollar being able to keep value.

I don't see how we are really getting anywhere with my entertaining these nonsense assertions, and you can choose for yourself if you want to invest in bitcoin or not or speculate or whatever the fuck you want to call it, or you can refrain from investing in it, which seems to be your perspective Tail Gunner.... and maybe is the perspective of MichaelWitcoff, too? I am not sure. Maybe MichaelWitcoff would like to disclose to us if he owns any bitcoin, has any plans to buy bitcoin or plans to short it or otherwise take investment/speculation actions that somehow relate to the topic of this thread?
03-28-2020 09:53 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
MichaelWitcoff Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 977
Joined: Jan 2019
Reputation: 19
Post: #8696
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I don’t own Bitcoin and won’t be putting a single penny into cryptocurrency beyond what I did before I knew better. I speculated with crypto and the returns ranged from over 1000% gain to over 90% loss and everywhere in between because at the time I didn’t understand the idea that I wasn’t actually investing, but gambling. Now that I know better I will never speculate or gamble, but invest only in real investment vehicles with underlying measurable value.

In a certain sense, gaining a big profit with crypto is worse than a big loss because it teaches you bad investing habits and you’ll confuse fortunate timing with intelligent investing. I hope that you will think critically about what’s being said here about Bitcoin instead of just getting defensive.

Host of "The Brother Augustine Podcast" and best-selling author of On The Masons And Their Lies.
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 10:54 PM by MichaelWitcoff.)
03-28-2020 10:47 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8697
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  
(03-28-2020 08:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [quote='Freebird Flying' pid='2074030' dateline='1585444047']
The people who love bitcoin the most are the ones who got in cheap or who are trading it.

"You are lumping a lot of people in the same category. Why? "

I think a lot of people who came in later are down quite a bit. That's why I say that.

Yeah they might be, but you really don't know. I realize that it can be quite frustrating to be in an investment or speculation when it is down.

If you look at some of my other posts in this thread, you would likely notice that I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and the price of my first purchase was $1,200 (through local bitcoins, so there was a bit of a premium at that time). I bought 1.24BTC for $1,500. Anyhow, I continued to dollar cost average buy for much of 2014 even 2015, so towards the end of 2014, my average cost per BTC was $550, but the price for much of 2015 was in the mid $200s, and even though I continued to DCA through 2015, my average price per BTC only dropped to around $500 and maybe it was below $500 for a period of time, but point is that I was under water during that whole period, and of course, a lot of people were saying to sell or to cut your loss and various nonsense like that.

Even though we know that there are no guarantees regarding what the BTC price is going to do or what it did do in late 2015 to late 2017, but the BTC price largely did a 78x price appreciation during those two years, and of course, past performance does not guarantee any kind of present or future performance, but we can still identify similarities in price dynamics and even price performance models that help to explain bitcoin's seemingly ongoing 4 year hype cycles and various other market dynamics that help to put the price performance and possible price manipulation into perspective.

By the way, when I say price manipulation, I am not really meaning to describe it as a negative, but just to give some understanding to the kind of dynamics and struggles that can be seen in the way that BTC prices have these tendencies to get shot way the fuck beyond expectations both to the downward and to the upwards, and my thinking is that some of the outrageous upward explosion ends up coming because various bearwhales have manipulated the BTC price down for longer and to lower levels than they are able to sustain, and at some point, they cannot keep the prices down any longer, and it ends up exploding to the upside, even though they do not want the prices to go up, those fucktwats have no choice once the momentum gets going and they cannot stop it or keep it down any longer.

Sure, any of us might assert or argue that the upwards price explosion is not going to happen again or that bitcoin is going to zero or other bitcoin is a bubble or overvalued claims, and sure some people actually believe that and there are some folks who want to shake you out of your coins.. and if you are shook out of your coins, then that is your choice, I suppose... sometimes people regret it because they think that they are going to buy back lower.. think about so many people selling their coins between about $800 and $2,500 and thinking that they were going to buy back lower, but the BTC price still has not gone lower, several years later... so yeah, maybe they will get a chance to buy back at a profit, but I have my doubt. Many of them will end up buying back higher or refusing to buy back and then sometimes becoming bitter about it.


(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  I usually hold my investments for 3 to 5 years so I shouldn't judge the price at this point until we see where it's at after a five year period off the highs.

Like I said, when I first got in (in 2013), I was thinking about two years, but I thought that if I at least hold for one year then it is long term rather than short term capital gains, but my thinking has evolved on the topic, and I am thinking that bitcoin is way more of a solid investment, so having longer term investment horizons is not a bad thing, even though there still are not any guarantees. I frequently suggest a minimum of 4 years, but who the fuck is going to get rich in four years, so frequently it takes a long time to build an investment portfolio.
So, yeah if you come into bitcoin and you are just reallocating from your other investments, then you may already establish a decent stake that allows you to pull out some or all of your investment in a much shorter period of time.

Many times it is going to take a decent amount of time, even 10 to 20 years to build a decent investment portfolio that you are comfortable with the distribution of assets and that you might feel sufficiently confident to start to withdraw income from them. But of course along the way, you can also engage in periodic reassessment and reallocation some guys will do this annually, but if you are still building, you may or may not feel that you need to reallocate, and also depending on the overall market dynamics and your personal situation, too.


(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  You may very well be correct. There a lot of talented investors who believe bitcoin will be huge in the future.

Some people are going to be right and some are going to be wrong, and in the end, it is good to figure out for yourself based on your own circumstances and your own views and your own various personal financial factors that I had already mentioned.

You could reasonably take 1% to 10% allocation and then study the space, or you might feel that your own personal circumstances justify some amount outside of that range. In the end, you need to be careful that you do not overinvest, whether it is bitcoin or any other investment, and in that sense, it is good to make sure that you have your cashflow figured out including expenses and even emergency funds because you don't want to be withdrawing BTC at a time that is not of your own choosing, and we see that bear markets can sometimes last several years, even breaking or putting into question the currently dominant BTC price prediction models.

(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  I don't mind owning some of it at the current price levels, but if you wan to HODL it, dollar cost average makes some sense to me.

If you are nervous, then you might choose to just put $50 a week; however, one of the problems of under investing will sometimes cause guys to end up FOMO buying on the way up, and then they end up investing too much at too high of prices, and then the price dips and they start getting bitter. Ultimately, you have to figure out what works for yourself that the price movements are not going to cause you to become too emotional whether the BTC price moves up or down. Of course my practice is to buy more if the price goes down, but if you run out of money, then you won't be able to buy more until more money comes in... Another concept of DCA is that you don't even look at the price, just buy once a week or once a month or whenever at whatever price without trying to second guess too much, and over time, it will allow you to get a decent stake without straining yourself too much about it.


(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  If someone had 50K to invest (or whatever amount you would like to choose), would you suggest to put that in at once, over a one year period, or 3 year period? Or does it depend on the price?

If you otherwise have all your shit together and you have already allocated that amount towards BTC investing, I would suggest dividing it into three parts. Invest 1/3 right away. Assign 1/3 to DCA over six months or some other reasonable period and assign the last 1/3 to buying on dips. One thing about your $50k hypothetical would be whether you already have the $50k, and then what are you going to do with your cashflow over the next 6 months or so. Usually when I calculate, I would try to calculate a lump sum amount, and divide that by 3, and then calculate my cashflow and then add the cashflow in a similar kind of way.

Once you have a plan and you tailor the plan to yourself, then of course, you can tweak it and even think it over before you begin to employ it to make sure that you are comfortable with the whole thing, and maybe you will decide that you want to apportion differently, and then you have to figure are you setting up accounts on exchanges to buy and can you set up orders to buy on dips, too.

So for example, if you bought $16,667 right away (that's 1/3) and your price ended up being $6,200, then you might not feel any kind of need to buy at $6,200 again, so you might structure buy orders down to some price that is comfortable for you.. If you want to be prepared for extremes, then you might set up buy orders all the way down to $3k .. so maybe you would could have 16 orders of $1,000 each. Regarding the DCA, you would have an ability to authorize yourself to buy $641 per week for 26 weeks.... so after you put it all on paper, you can consider whether any of that seems reasonable to you... or if some other way of dividing it might seem better, whether you are concerned about front loading a bit, just in case the price does not go that low or the price starts to go up from here...

Part of the problem with our current macro environment is that you really cannot know for sure if there might be BIG crashes of if BTC prices might go shooting up $2k-$4k.. Remember in April 2019,... BTC shot from $4,200 to $13,880 in three months, and then on October 25, 2019, BTC shot from $7,300 to $10,300 in 12 hours... so, your plan should attempt to plan for various contingencies without causing you to get too emotional about either direction.. because once your plan is in place, you should attempt to construct it in a way that the price direction does not cause you to become emotional... the price comes to you, rather than you chasing the price.


(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  For me, the value of Bitcoin I see it as a store of value, like digital gold.

What would you say is the other values of Bitcoin?

Of course, the storage of value is part of it, but in the short term it is difficult to know. So, yeah, bitcoin can be a hedge against dollar investments and even a not exactly correlated asset. It can also serve as a great means to censorship resistantly transfer value to whoever you want and no one can stop you... whether you are doing that or others are using bitcoin in that way, it remains a powerful feature of bitcoin. So there can be a lot of autonomy in controlling your assets and giving you another option, whether you exercise it or not. So learning how to store and secure your keys can be quite powerful.

(03-28-2020 09:07 PM)Freebird Flying Wrote:  And how would it make sense for someone to buy in at a level as high as 50 thousand dollars and hold that at sometime in the future?

Thanks!

If BTC prices go shooting up to $50k, and you feel that you do not have enough, the you are kind of in a tough situation. If you are fairly young and you have an ongoing income stream, the dollar cost average portion of your investment would just suggest to buy whatever amount that you have allocated to DCA at whatever price, but I understand that you don't really want to be buying at $50k if you have already stocked up at much lower prices.

In late 2014 and even into 2015, I felt that I had invested into bitcoin beyond my allocated amount.. which my goal was 10%, and I went beyond 10%, so in late 2015, I had authorized myself to sell small amounts of BTC as the price went up and to use that money for buying back. The tax consequences currently can make this kind of practice complicated, so you have to decide if you believe that kind of a strategy might work for you or if you might just try to ONLY buy on dips rather than when the price goes up... so there are theories that in this next pump that BTC could pump anywhere between $50k and $350k, and surely any of us are going to be surprised if such numbers were to occur, but it is not a bad thing to prepare yourself for such possibilities, even if you might believe that they do not have very high chances of happening.

In 2015/2016, I have plenty of on the record predictions that I thought that the price bubble was going to take us to somewhere in the $3k to $5k territory, but even though I thought that was going to be the top, I did not sell much of my BTC, and I had already decided that I was only going to sell small amounts and just let my BTC stash ride. So of course, the price rise ended up going 3x to 5x more bullish than my thinking of a kind of best case scenario. I don't know if such craziness is in the cards for this next time around or not, but I still have a plan for myself that goes beyond $50k.... and even if BTC were to go to $500k, I still would have the vast majority of my BTC, even though I have incremental selling all the way up the potential price rise.. that is just me.. and, yeah, I might decide to spontaneously sell a bit extra BTC, but I have already been through 1 earlier price rise, so I have a lot more potential profits, and including having already had been solidly investing in BTC for more than 6 years.

If your investment timeline is NOT as long, then it is a bit harder to prepare for those extremes, but surely not impossible, if you think that maybe at various points you might cash out a bit (in the event that you believe that you are in a reasonable position to do that). There is a guy who had theorized that every time that your BTC goes up 100%, you should take 10% profits, and I don't really know if that is a good idea (because you might be shaving off too much), but it does continually allow you to cash out of your BTC while always maintaining a stash of BTC, but you might say to yourself that you will only start to cash out profits at the first interval, once the BTC price goes to $30k.. or something like that... but you have to figure out those thresholds and intervals for yourself and what makes sense for your situation.
03-28-2020 11:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes JayJuanGee's post:
Freebird Flying
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8698
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  You’re talking about Bitcoin as if it’s a real investment-worthy asset, like stocks or real estate, which grow in proportion to the increase in their value.

I will agree with you that different kinds of asset classes have differing attributes, bitcoin's increase in value is likely going to come with ongoing sound money qualities, and increasingly people will likely put their money into it because it is a kind of gold 2.0, so it is more scarce than gold, but it is also more portable, divisible, verifiable and even less problematic to use/store in terms of fees and security and third parties.

There seems to be value in a kind of sound money, even if you might not appreciate such value possibilities.


(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  That’s the only time it makes sense to talk about long-term time horizons, to give them time to reach their potential. What is Bitcoin growing into?

Bitcoin already is, and surely it continues to be adopted too, so there are seven network effects as outlined by Trace Mayer.. but of course, it is helpful to have some insight into what each of the network effects mean for bitcoin becoming stronger and stronger with increased development and adoption and financialization, which has already been taking place through its 11+ years of existence.


(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  What does it produce?

Produces sound money options for people, which could mean to be able to pay or to store or to hold their value. And, they do not need permission to use it, once they have it and if they figure out ways to safeguard their private keys.

(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  What causes the price to go up or down?

For the short term it can be a bit more difficult to figure out price direction and/or causation of price movements, but for the longer term, the most credible and dominant BTC price prediction theories recently are the 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles. So there can be considerable deviance from the models, but they attempt to both describe history, present value and to assign some probability to future value.


(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  A. Nothing,
B. Nothing,
C. Speculation and what people think others are willing to pay.

You can believe whatever you want.

(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  Hence why I don’t consider it a real investment -

You can consider bitcoin however, you like, and maybe you will be right, and maybe you will not. You can also choose your various allocations into various investments, whether that includes BTC or not... Your choice.


(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  there is no growth in intrinsic value that could reliably and proportionally cause the price to rise.

Bitcoin seems to have been growing quite a bit in the past 11+ years, and yeah, maybe there are some areas in which some people might conclude that bitcoin is too stagnant or is not growing or changing enough, but seems to be growing to me, whether we are considering number of people using it or mining power or software development being built on top of bitcoin, or exchanges and other avenues of liquidation and financialization.


(03-28-2020 09:33 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  And it’s clearly a terrible hedge against stock market corrections, which everyone claimed it was going to be. “Invest” if you want but I hope you consider these points.

In the short term, some markets are going to be overly correlated, including when there seems to be a liquidity crisis and lack of confidence overall in macrosystems.

Of course, bitcoin does not live in a vacuum, so some of the crisis seems to have decent effects on bitcoin, in the short term, but it is hardly accurate to conclude that you understand the degree to which bitcoin is correlated or not based on some short term price movements, and probably you need to zoom out a bit to attempt to recognize a decent amount of lack of correlation of bitcoin to any other asset class, even if in the short term you might see some short periods of seeming correlation.

Reasonable people can come to differing conclusions in their assessments, and some people speculate about these matters while taking a stake in their theory and others sit on the sidelines and merely speculate, so surely, any guy can attempt to decide if there is any motivation for him to invest in bitcoin or to change his bitcoin allocations, and surely, he might be in a better position now to set up some bitcoin accounts than he might be during more crazy periods when bitcoin goes shooting up in price (which may or may not happen in the future), and sometimes it can be better for guys to have at least set up some bitcoin account(s) in order to be prepared, because sometimes guys write off bitcoin and then they end up trying to rush to set up an account, and sometimes it might take a month or longer to set up an account...depending on how rushed some of the services might become. We have seen that in the past including 2017 and early 2018.
03-28-2020 11:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,259
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 80
Post: #8699
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(03-28-2020 10:47 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  I don’t own Bitcoin and won’t be putting a single penny into cryptocurrency beyond what I did before I knew better.

Bitcoin and crypto is not the same thing, so I would not recommend that you put any money into any shitcoins. Bitcoin is not a shitcoin.

Regarding your lack of an investment into bitcoin, maybe you at least have tried it, so perhaps one step further than Tail Gunner.. Perhaps?

Funny how guys who do not own any bitcoin want to come into this thread and lecture people regarding how smart they are in regards to both what bitcoin is and what it's supposed investment potentials are (or are not in the case of both you and tail gunner).

You are not even shorting bitcoin, but I suppose that you might have some investments into other assets that you believe are competing with bitcoin. In tail gunners case, he believes in gold, and so it probably would not be a stretch to speculate that you, MichaelWitcoff, believe that gold is a better investment than bitcoin because it has a longer history, it is more tangible, has more financial instruments and it has industrial uses, etc etc.

(03-28-2020 10:47 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  I speculated with crypto and the returns ranged from over 1000% gain to over 90% loss and everywhere in between because at the time I didn’t understand the idea that I wasn’t actually investing, but gambling.

Hopefully it is accurate for me to presume that you are referring to bitcoin. This is a bitcoin thread, so there is no need for us to talk about crypto, unless you want to make some kind of point that connects bitcoin to crypto... ? Hopefully, you can try to focus somewhat so that we do not go all over the place in terms of what we are talking about.

Regarding bitcoin, yes, it can be very volatile. So yeah, between late 2015 and late 2017 there was like a 78x price increase from $250 to $19,666.

And, then from December 2017 to December 2018, there was about a 84% price drop from $19,666 to $3,124.

So, yes, BTC prices can become quite volatile, and it is possible that similar volatility could happen in the future; however, I believe that the historical data shows that bitcoin has tended to become a bit less volatile with the passage of time, which makes some sense in terms of ongoing adoption and more capital or leverage tools is/are needed in order to attempt to move the BTC price by the same kind of magnitude.

Currently, I am not really sure what would be a fair theoretical price bounce off area for BTC in the event that we get another upwards BTC price bubble, and part of that uncertainty comes from being a bit unclear about whether the bottom is "in" for this cycle or not. But, let's just say hypothetically that BTC prices were to do 50x instead of 78x, then that could theoretically put BTC prices in the $200k, range, and if there is an 80% correction, then BTC prices would drop back down to $40k, which surely is within a realm of possibilities, but surely is far from inevitable regarding what bitcoin is going to do or how BTC price dynamics might play out in the coming couple of years from our current price point.

We have a BTC halvening that is coming up in a bit over 6 weeks, and historically, those halvenings have tended to restrict the new supply of bitcoin, but sometimes the price effect of that restricted supply might take several months or even a year before it is really starting to be felt.... so there can be actual dynamics in bitcoin that tugs the price in both directions, including ongoing macro economic uncertainties including the uncertainties with the virus but also uncertainties regarding continued reactions from economic players including ongoing shutting down of businesses and travel, which also could result in attempts at shutting down communications, too... so yeah, lots of uncertainties in the coming months and even years starting from our current jumping off point.


(03-28-2020 10:47 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  Now that I know better I will never speculate or gamble, but invest only in real investment vehicles with underlying measurable value.

I say the same thing. It is not good to gamble too much with your investments, and of course, even if you try to minimize gambling, you cannot completely remove some gambling dynamics. Part of the concern with any kind of investment is attempting to assign accurate probabilities to future events, and preparing for either direction. Of course, if you believe that an event only has a 1% chance of happening, you should not put 20% or 30% of resources into that, and the same is true if you believe that some event has 20 or 30% chances of happening, then you should attempt the best that you can to allocate your various portfolio and risks and everything in accordance with the various fair assignments of probabilities.. not pie in the sky bullshit but instead realistic assessments that also attempt to manage risks including attempting to be prepared if your investment moves against what you had thought to be the more probable outcome.

(03-28-2020 10:47 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  In a certain sense, gaining a big profit with crypto is worse than a big loss because it teaches you bad investing habits and you’ll confuse fortunate timing with intelligent investing.

I agree. That would not be good.


(03-28-2020 10:47 PM)MichaelWitcoff Wrote:  I hope that you will think critically about what’s being said here about Bitcoin instead of just getting defensive.

Now you are devolving into patronizing, and nobody's got time for that.

I think that I have explained my position and my approach to bitcoin throughout this thread, so you can look back to my posts in this thread in November 2013, if you want to stalk me, but I have had a pretty decently consistent plan through my investing into bitcoin, and there has NOT been any get rich quick bullshit from me, I had invested in decently slow amounts and it took me about a year to establish my initial stake in bitcoin, which was my goal of about 10%.

I could have changed my stake at any time that I wanted, and I have established practices and approaches that are tailored to my various situation, so don't be so pretentious as to presume that you understand my finances and my situation and to suggest that I have been fucking around with gambling strategies, when that has not either been my history or my practice.

Now, since you are not really very interested in bitcoin, and you just want to lecture about something that you don't really know about, I have some troubles understanding why you are going to remain interested in participating in this thread, when your only message or contribution seems to be that guys should not invest in bitcoin. blah blah blah.. and I am not sure how helpful that is. ..
03-28-2020 11:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication